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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Ari Hawkins | |  Joe Biden threatened to impose “consequences” on Saudi Arabia after reevaluating the state of the relationship. That review never formally happened, as we’ve reported, and per the Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON, it appears that it’s partly because the royal threatened to pull away. | POOL/AFP/Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Alex It’s been nearly a year since President JOE BIDEN traveled to Saudi Arabia to mend frayed ties with Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN. One of the main reasons for the trip, if not the main one, was to revive the de facto ruler’s reputation following the Yemen war and JAMAL KHASHOGGI murder in exchange for more oil on the market at lower prices. Inflation and the war in Ukraine brought pain at the pump, and Saudi Arabia, as a leader of OPEC+, had the power to relieve it. But Riyadh didn’t do so. Instead, Saudi cut oil production last October to raise prices and, earlier this week, announced it would reduce its output by 1 million oil barrels a day for the same reason. That was quite a sign that Biden’s fist-bump diplomacy hasn’t produced the intended success. There have been some marked improvements in the relationship, namely a pause in the fighting of the Yemen war, and energy prices have dropped since a peak last summer. Oil also isn’t as central to U.S.-Saudi ties as it used to be: The U.S. can produce much of its own and the kingdom has many customers to sell to. But after last fall’s production cut, Biden threatened to impose “consequences” on Saudi Arabia after reevaluating the state of the relationship. That review never formally happened, as we’ve reported, and per the Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON, it appears that it’s partly because the royal threatened to pull away. Citing a classified intelligence document leaked among a trove of papers on Discord, Hudson revealed that MBS claimed “he will not deal with the U.S. administration anymore,” vowing to impose “major economic consequences on Washington.” Whether he said that directly to U.S. officials or America’s intel apparatus swept up communication is unclear, but the message made it to the top corridors of power. Instead of consequences, MBS got meetings. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN chatted with him this week in Jeddah, following national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN’s similar sitdown in May. Ask any administration official and they’ll say the U.S.-Saudi relationship is fine and dandy. National Security Council spokesperson ADAM HODGE told NatSec Daily, “The United States shares a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia that spans over 80 years.” “A strong partnership means being able to disagree at times and to keep the dialogue going. We do that with Saudi Arabia, same as any other partner,” continued Hodge. Critics of the administration’s Saudi policy on the Hill say that’s not the conclusion to draw. “Any strategy in the Middle East built upon assuming Saudi Arabia is going to be a constant, reliable partner is destined to fail. The Saudis will work with us sometimes and against us sometimes, and the sooner we realize that the better,” said Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and staunch Riyadh skeptic.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | DESTROYED UKRAINIAN TANKS: Images are appearing online that allegedly show destroyed Ukrainian tanks that presumably were taking part in the just-launched counteroffensive. One going viral within War Twitter shows Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles near Orikhiv to the southeast of Zaporizhzhya. ROB LEE, an expert on the war at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, tweeted that they may have been taken out in a mine strike. The image “also indicates [that] Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade is taking part in the fighting,” he said. But there are other images circulating online of destroyed or abandoned armored vehicles, meaning the Ukrainian advance has met some significant resistance already. It’s early — really early — in the campaign. But the images indicate that a mechanized war won’t be all that easy for Ukraine and the Russians, for the moment, are having some success repelling the counteroffensive. NUKES IN BELARUS: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said Friday that the facilities to host his nation’s nuclear weapons in Belarus will be ready on July 7 or 8. That’s just days before NATO allies meet for a summit in Vilnius, just 100 miles from the Belarussian capital. “Everything is going to plan,” Putin said in a televised discussion with Belarussian President ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO. "On July 7 or 8, preparations for the corresponding [nuclear] facilities will be done, and we will start activities regarding the deployment of the corresponding type of weapons on your territory at once." Putin has long used the threat of nuclear war as a way to make the West cower and cease its support for Ukraine. It’s unlikely that this announcement will make the U.S. or its allies change course. In fact, the administration today announced a new $2.1 billion assistance package for Kyiv under the Ukraine Security Act Initiative. The aid includes more munitions for the Patriot air-defense system, HAWK air-defense systems and missiles and Puma unmanned aerial systems. ‘FULL-SCALE DEFENSE PARTNERSHIP’: The Biden administration declassified intelligence showing how Iran sends hundreds of drones to Russia and plans to build a drone-making facility inside Russia with Iran’s help. One graphic shows the drones are built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea to Russia — with a port Iran helped develop — and then transferred to two air bases. Another includes satellite imagery released showing the planned location of the plant in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, which could be fully operational early next year. “This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said in a statement to our own LARA SELIGMAN and Alex. “We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public — and we are prepared to do more.” On Friday, the administration announced guidance to industry on Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle-related activity. DIDN’T GET THE INVITE: Ukraine is unlikely to get a formal offer to join NATO during the alliance’s July summit in Vilnius, U.S. Ambassador to NATO JULIANNE SMITH told our own LILI BAYER. “I think the allies now are in agreement that a proper invitation is unlikely while they’re engaged in a full-scale war,” she said. But she insisted NATO still wants Ukraine to get the message that it is with the war-torn country for the long haul — and is trying to find a way to show that in Vilnius. “We want to signal to President VOLODYMYR [ZELENSKYY] — if he comes in person — we care deeply about having a longer-term relationship with Ukraine and looking for ways to acknowledge, you know, all they’ve accomplished and that our support isn’t going to fade away or that we’re not going to get distracted.” Ukraine wants two things from the West: a clear roadmap to imminent NATO membership and security guarantees. It doesn’t appear like Zelenskyy will get the first of his wishes during the summit. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring MATTHEW MILLER, the State Department’s new top spokesperson. (Regular readers may remember that his predecessor, NED PRICE, was the first to participate in this weird little feature of ours.) Miller says his favorite drink “varies based on the seasons.” Now that it’s basically summer, he turns to a negroni to sip on his back deck. When it’s wintertime, he prefers a La Lousiane in his home office. “I have little kids, so do most of my sipping at home,” he tells us. Cheers, Matt! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @_AriHawkins and @JGedeon1.
| | TRUMP INDICTED: By now, you’ve heard that former President DONALD TRUMP has been indicted by the Department of Justice in the classified documents probe. Trump faces 37 felony counts, including 31 counts under the Espionage Act of “willful retention” of classified records. One section said that Trump allegedly had in his boxes information “regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to a foreign attack.” Another said that after a grand jury subpoena for the documents, Trump, among other things, suggested, “that his attorney hide or destroy documents called for by the grand just subpoena.” Trump maintains his innocence. Fellow 2024 candidates weighed in when news of the indictment broke Thursday and before the document was unsealed Friday. The reactions fall into four camps. VIVEK RAMASWAMY vowed to pardon Trump on his first day as president. RON DESANTIS didn’t go as far but he said he would “bring accountability to the DOJ.” NIKKI HALEY and TIM SCOTT both hinted that they were unhappy with how justice was being meted out but didn’t promise to reprimand the DOJ or pardon Trump. ASA HUTCHINSON, meanwhile, called for Trump to drop out of the race. Others, like CHRIS CHRISTIE and MIKE PENCE, have yet to weigh in.
| | | |   | | | | | RUSSIAN HACKERS: The Department of Justice announced criminal charges against two Russian nationals, ALEXEY BILYUCHENKO and ALEKSANDR VERNER, on Friday. The pair are accused of conspiring to launder about 647,000 bitcoins (worth about 17 billion today) during a cyberattack in 2011 that targeted the server of one of the largest bitcoin exchange networks, Mt. Gox. Bilyuchenko is separately charged with illegally operating an illicit bitcoin exchange network, BTC-e, from 2011 to 2017. If convicted, each defendant could face decades in prison, per the department’s press release. Bilyuchenko could face an additional 25-year maximum prison sentence.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– TRIP TO UKRAINE: The Arizona Defense and Industry Coalition just returned from a weeklong trip to Ukraine, NatSec Daily learned, in which some of the discussions touched upon reconstruction efforts and defense partnership with the war-torn country. Ukrainian Parliament member DMYTRO LIUBOTA invited the delegation, led by AZDIC President LYNNDY SMITH, after Liubota traveled to Arizona earlier this year to discuss defense technology needs. The state’s leadership is interested in further investing in Ukraine now and after the war is over. “I look forward to discussing how Arizona and Ukraine can further partner in efforts to defend and rebuild Ukraine,” Gov. KATIE HOBBS said in a statement. During the trip, delegation members met with top Ukrainian officials including Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV. “We have already arranged a platform for our over 1,200 defense contractors in the state of Arizona to discuss potential solutions to priorities related to drone surveillance, munitions, and aircraft procurement and maintenance,” Smith added in a statement. EVEN SPLIT: The Space Force announced Thursday that the service assigned 12 satellite launch missions in 2025: six to SpaceX and six to United Launch Alliance, our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!). The announcement marks the last hurrah of a procurement system that’s being phased out. Starting next year, the Space Force will award contracts using a new “dual-lane strategy” to increase competition. The idea is to make sure SpaceX and ULA don’t maintain a duopoly in the national security space launch market.
| | | SEND ATACMS: A bipartisan sextet introduced a House bill that urges the administration to send Army Tactical Missile Systems to Ukraine. The resolution simply “calls” on the administration and U.S. allies to send the ATACMS; it doesn’t force Biden to send them. But the measure— introduced by Reps. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), TOM KEAN, JR. (R-N.J.), JOE WILSON (R-S.C.), BILL KEATING (D-Mass.), TED LIEU (D-Calif) and JARED GOLDEN (D-Maine) — add to the mounting pressure on the White House to deliver the weapons. On Thursday, nine House members — including both Republicans and Democrats — sent a letter to Biden demanding the same thing. It’s unclear if such a bill will make it to Biden’s desk, or that he would sign it if it did, but it is clear that there’s a growing bipartisan consensus that ATACMS should soon make their way to Kyiv. SPACE NATIONAL GUARD: A draft version of a portion of the House Armed Services Committee's annual defense policy bill will endorse creating a Space National Guard, according to legislative text obtained by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and LEE HUDSON ahead of its release. They note (for Pros!) that the legislation also places limits on Army funding in order to force the service to provide Congress with more analysis on its program to replace a portion of its AH-64 Apache helicopter fleet. The proposals were included in subcommittee sections of the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act that are set to be approved next week by their respective panels.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | U.N. ENVOY EXPELLED: Sudan’s government has expelled the top U.N. envoy to the country, escalating concerns that the North African nation is isolating itself from international forces looking for an end to the conflict, JACK JEFFERY reports for AP. Sudan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement late Thursday following a letter from military chief Gen. ABDEL FATTAH BURHAN that demanded envoy VOLKER PERTHES be removed from his position and blamed the envoy for stoking the conflict. The ministry added that U.N. Secretary-General ANTONIO GUTERRES had been notified that Perthes was “persona non grata,” per Al Jazeera.
| | — MICHAEL KLIPSTEIN has joined Baker Donelson as a senior policy adviser to work on space, maritime and cybersecurity policy. He was a cyber adviser in the Army and a dissertation chair at Capitol Technology University.
| | | | GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | — MICHAEL HIRSH, POLITICO: The Pentagon is freaking out about a potential war with China. (Because America might lose) — SAMANTHA BENDERN, The Guardian: As Russia’s armed forces fight among themselves, it’s hard to know who’s in control — ERIC BREWER and HENRY ROME, Foreign Affairs: Biden’s Iran gamble
| | — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Reflecting on 30 Years of Research and Analysis on South Asia — Hudson Institute, 9:30 a.m.: NATO Summit Preview with Chairs of European Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committees — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: People over robots: How policy distorts decisions around automation — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: Schriever Spacepower Series: Gen. DAVID D. THOMPSON — Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Global Technological Standards and Geopolitics — Disclosure Project, 2 p.m.: UFO/UAP Disclosure Press Conference — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Voices of change: A conversation with MARIA CORINA MACHADO Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, with whom we tried a rapprochement last year but the relationship has only gotten worse. We also thank our producer, Sinobia Aiden, who can do no wrong in our eyes.
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