Sullivan: Biden admin has taken ‘risks’ with Ukraine support

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Friday Jul 21,2023 09:10 pm

Jul 21, 2023

Jake Sullivan speaks at a podium as audience members in front of him raise hands.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan added that some caution was still needed as the chance of severe escalation still remains. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

With help from Lara Seligman, Jordain Carney, Andrew Zhang and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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ASPEN, Colo. — The Biden administration has accepted significant “risks” in sending advanced weapons to Ukraine, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told an audience at the Aspen Security Forum, defending against charges that the U.S. was too timid in arming Kyiv.

Much of the conference in the Rockies featured criticisms, mostly leveled by Republicans, at the speed of America’s decisionmaking and delivery of air-defense systems, artillery and ammunition. Every time Ukraine asks for something, “the administration worries about escalation,” Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) said moments before the Biden aide’s appearance, calling the stance “self-deterrence in many ways.”

Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, who surprised the elite crowd by appearing over video conference, complained about the lack of F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles that the U.S. had yet to provide.

Asked about those broadsides, the national security adviser rejected the narrative of a White House scared of raising Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s hackles.

“One caricature is that the administration is sitting around, you know, unwilling to provide things because we're worried about the Russians. I think that is belied by the sheer magnitude of the breadth and sophistication of the capabilities that we have provided,” Sullivan said on stage during the last session of the four-day conference. “We have been prepared to take risks, and we will continue to be prepared to take risks to provide support to Ukraine.”

But Sullivan added that some caution was still needed as the chance of severe escalation still remains.

“It is responsible for every member of NATO and for the United States to think about the Russian reaction when we choose to do something because that matters for our security and management of global stability. So don't be paralyzed by it. Consider it and then make decisions accordingly,” he said.

Questions about the Biden administration’s speed of support for Ukraine remain a sore spot for senior officials who, like Sullivan, insist Washington has acted as quickly and responsibly as possible.

But it’s unlikely that the criticism will go away any time soon. Also during the conference, an animated Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) said the U.S. should stop worrying about what Russia might do and would prefer Putin wake up “and worry about what the U.S. is going to do.”

More uncertainty on China’s missing official: Sullivan, asked about the whereabouts of Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG, said “we don’t know.”

“All we know is that Secretary [ANTONY] BLINKEN was set to meet the foreign minister at the recent ASEAN conference in Indonesia. He ended up meeting with WANG YI instead because Wang Yi traveled in the foreign minister’s stead and we have no other information.”

That question and response came as a mystery surrounds Qin Gang following some rumors we won’t repeat here. But the point is he’s been missing for weeks and the world has no idea where one of China’s top diplomats is, including the U.S. government.

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The Inbox

MONITORING U.S. WEAPONS IN UKRAINE: The U.S. has seen no “credible evidence” that U.S. weapons have been successfully stolen from the battlefield in Ukraine, Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. GARRON GARN told our own LARA SELIGMAN, despite multiple attempts to do so.

Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, has thwarted at least four attempts by criminals — some linked to Russia — to seize American weapons since the invasion in February 2022, according to documents from the Pentagon’s inspector general obtained by POLITICO through a Freedom of Information Act request.

— In late June 2022, Ukrainian authorities dismantled an unmanned organized crime group, controlled by a Russian official, that was using forged identity documents and stolen weapons to “conduct destabilizing activities,” according to the heavily redacted Oct. 6 report. The weapons included a grenade launcher, a machine gun and more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition.

— Around the same time, the SBU disrupted a group of Ukrainian criminals, posing as members of a humanitarian aid organization, who illicitly imported bulletproof vests and sold them rather than distributing them to Ukrainian forces. One member of the criminal group was found with a cache of vests worth $17,000.

— A third operation in late June disrupted a group of arms traffickers who were selling weapons and ammunition stolen from the front lines in southern Ukraine.

— And in mid-August, Ukrainian authorities disrupted a group of volunteer battalion members who took more than 60 rifles and almost 1,000 rounds of ammunition and stored them illegally in a warehouse. The intent was presumably to sell the weapons on the black market, according to the report.

The Biden administration is realistic about the risk of sending American weapons to an active conflict zone, and the Pentagon works to remove sensitive technology ahead of the transfer, a National Security Council spokesperson told Lara.

“There is a risk these weapons could be captured if territory changes hands — which happens in any war,” the spokesperson said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive technology transfers. “We work closely with our Ukrainian counterparts to anticipate and mitigate these risks.”

TURKEY NEEDED TO SECURE FOOD: SecState Blinken made clear today that the U.S. is looking to Turkey to help prod Russia back into the Black Sea grain deal that Moscow blew up earlier this week, our own MEREDITH LEE HILL reports.

Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN and top U.N. officials helped to broker the fragile agreement last year, but Erdogan doesn’t appear willing at this point to continue the deal without Russian involvement. Nonetheless, Blinken laid out U.S. expectations for Ankara to continue to lead the effort to reassemble the fragile agreement during remarks at Aspen.

“We look to Turkey to play the role that it has already played, a leadership role in getting this back on track,” Blinken said. “Making sure that people around the world can get the food they need at reasonable prices.”

'BARBIE' OR 'OPPENHEIMER'?: The most important question we could ask Biden administration officials in the mountains is, when they get home, will they watch "Barbie" or "Oppenheimer"?

BRIAN NELSON, the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said he’s not a big moviegoer, but he’ll likely make an exception to see "Oppenheimer."

We were sure BONNIE JENKINS, the undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, wouldn’t choose "Oppenheimer" since her job is to reduce proliferation. But Jenkins said she can’t wait to see the movie about the American Prometheus, though she’s still interested in also seeing the MARGOT ROBBIE-led picture.

And COLIN KAHL, the just-departed undersecretary of Defense for policy, said he chooses "Barbie" over the nuclear-bomb film because his daughter wants to see it.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring ANJA MANUEL, executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group, which put on this week’s conference in the Rockies. When she’s not running the event, you can find Manuel sipping a gimlet. “It’s simple — gin and lime juice — and was used by sailors and world travelers to ward off scurvy,” she told us. She discovered the drink backpacking in Nepal, India and Myanmar in the late 1990s with her now-husband.

And where’s her favorite place to drink it? “After a long day in Delhi negotiating with Indian diplomats,” she said.

Cheers, Anja!

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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2024

TRUMP’S DAYS IN COURT: A federal judge today ordered DONALD TRUMP to stand trial on May 20, 2024 — after most presidential primaries have elapsed — on charges that he hoarded military secrets at his Mar-a-Lago estate, our own JOSH GERSTEIN and KYLE CHENEY report.

U.S. District Court Judge AILEEN CANNON appeared to split the difference between prosecutors’ request for a December 2023 trial date and Trump’s request to postpone the trial until after the November 2024 election.

Trump, the GOP presidential frontrunner, already faces a criminal trial set for March in New York on unrelated state charges of falsifying business records in connection with a hush money payment to porn star STORMY DANIELS prior to the 2016 presidential election.

Watch: Have you seen that meme of glass bottles rolling downstairs? The GOP candidates-themed one is finally here.

Keystrokes

NEW 702 USE: The office of the director of national intelligence declassified today that the NSA is using Section 702 to help vet if non-U.S. persons who are trying to enter the United States or receive a benefit under U.S. immigration law have ties to international terrorism, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports.

A foreign intelligence surveillance court opinion and order, declassified by ODNI on Friday, specified that it relates to non-U.S. persons and is not used for travel or immigrant applications that the “NSA knows, or reasonably should know, are located or reside inside the United States." While a bulk of Congress’s 702 angst has focused on the FBI, the disclosure of the NSA authority comes as lawmakers are weighing adding reforms and limits both the warrantless tool and the law it is housed under ahead of an end-of-the-year deadline to reauthorize the surveillance power.

While a bulk of Congress’s 702 angst has focused on the FBI, the disclosure of the NSA authority comes as lawmakers are weighing adding reforms and limits both the warrantless tool and the law it is housed under ahead of an end-of-the-year deadline to reauthorize the surveillance power.

The Complex

HISTORIC FIRST FOR NAVY: Biden is set to tap Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI to lead the Navy, which would make her the first woman to serve as a member of the military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lara and PAUL McLEARY report.

If confirmed, Franchetti would replace Chief of Naval Operations Adm. MIKE GILDAY, whose four-term year ends this fall. But she’s poised to join a nomination logjam in the Senate, as Republican Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) is single-handedly blocking more than 270 military promotions over the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy.

U.S. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. SAMUEL PAPARO, who Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN previously recommended for the job, will instead lead U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

NatSec Daily caught up with Sullivan about the nominations, and specifically the choice of Franchetti over Austin’s recommendation, on the sidelines of the Aspen forum.

“The president had the chance to sit with the secretary of Defense and they worked this slate together, and this is the slate, and that’s a good thing,” he said. Asked if there was any daylight between Biden and Austin, Sullivan said “I don't believe there is,” noting he couldn’t speak for the Pentagon chief. Both men ended the discussion “feeling very good about where we are.”

F-16S IN 2023: If the Biden administration’s predictions are accurate, American-made F-16 fighter jets could arrive in Ukraine by the end of this year, Lara also reports.

Washington is "moving rapidly" to get F-16s to Ukraine, Sullivan said in Aspen. "We are going to push as fast as possible."

Kirby struck a similar chord the day before, telling Fox News that “the F-16s will get there probably towards the end of the year, … but it's not our assessment that the F-16s alone would be enough to turn the tide here.”

Kirby’s remarks were “aspirational,” as the administration is still working to finalize plans to deliver the jets and train Ukrainian pilots, a U.S. official told Lara. In the meantime, a coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, has taken early steps on training.

On the Hill

NDAA AHEAD: Senators wrapped up a week of voting on the NDAA and will return Tuesday evening for votes on a pair of amendments, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

Those include a vote on Sen. JOHN CORNYN’s (R-Texas) legislation to boost scrutiny of U.S. companies' investments in certain Chinese tech industries. Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) will also receive a vote on his amendment, modeled after legislation he sponsored with Montana Democrat JON TESTER, aimed at blacklisting China, Russia, Iran and North Korea from purchasing U.S. farmland or agricultural businesses.

Broadsides

ZELENSKYY BOOTS AMBASSADOR: Zelenskyy fired VADYM PRYSTAIKO as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom after the envoy criticized the Ukrainian president in public, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports.

Zelenskyy didn’t give a reason for his decision, but it comes after Prystaiko criticized Zelenskyy’s punchy response earlier this month to British Defense Minister BEN WALLACE, who suggested that Ukraine should show more gratitude to its allies.

In response to Wallace’s comment, Zelenskyy said: “He can write to me about how he wants to be thanked, so we can fully express our gratitude. We can make a point to wake up (every) morning and thank him.”

Later, Prystaiko was asked by Sky News if that remark had a hint of sarcasm: “I don’t believe that this sarcasm is healthy. We don’t have to show Russians that we have something between us. They have to know we are working together.”

CRACKS IN THE KREMLIN: CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS said Russia’s elite aren’t so confident in Putin’s judgment, especially after the failed rebellion that appeared to catch the Kremlin off guard last month, Alex and NAHAL TOOSI reported Thursday night.

The U.S. spy agency is trying to seize on that and other seeming cracks in Putin’s control, which the mutiny exposed, Burns added. A CIA video that has sought to recruit Russian informants was viewed some 2.5 million times in its first week.

“What it resurrected was some deeper questions … about Putin’s judgment, about his relative detachment from events and even about his indecisiveness,” Burns said in an appearance at Aspen.

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Transitions

— Biden has tapped CIA Director Burns to become a member of his Cabinet: “Bill has always given me clear, straightforward analysis that prioritizes the safety and security of the American people, reflecting the integral role the CIA plays in our national security decision-making at this critical time,” the president said in a statement.

— ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL, a POLITICO fellow and recent Georgetown graduate, will join the NatSec Daily squad for some time beginning Monday. He’ll also be helping out on the China Watcher and Global Insider newsletters. Welcome to the fam, Eric!

What to Read

— JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: China’s missing foreign minister exposes Beijing’s secrecy under Xi

— JAVIER BLAS, Bloomberg: Russia Weaponizing Wheat Won’t Hurt the World

— NAMAN KARL-THOMAS HABTOM, War On The Rocks: When failed coups strengthen leaders

Monday Today

— Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: Navigating the future of defense cloud software as a service

— Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 4 p.m.: No daylight: U.S. strategy if Israel attacks Iran

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Book discussion on "Korea: A New History of South and North”

CORRECTION: Andreas Michaelis’ new role was misstated in yesterday’s edition of NatSec Daily. Michaelis will become the new German ambassador to the U.S.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, with whom we take professional “risks” every day by working together.

We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who is a sure bet as a colleague.

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