Biden and Israel: When your ‘best friends’ won’t listen

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Monday Jul 24,2023 08:02 pm
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By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a session of the Knesset.

The push by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and an unusually far-right Israeli government to neuter the Supreme Court has roiled the nation, leading to weeks of protests. | Maya Alleruzzo/AP Photo

With help from Nahal Toosi and Lara Seligman

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The story of Israel’s judicial overhaul is first and foremost an Israeli domestic one. But it’s also a tale of the limits of the approach President JOE BIDEN has used for years to sway that country’s government.

In 2021, as yet another war between Israel and Hamas-led Gaza broke out, Biden in public defended Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU while, in private, he urged the leader to accept a ceasefire. When a moment to stop the fighting presented itself, Biden upped the out-loud pressure, openly demanding that Bibi end the strikes in response to rocket attacks. The administration boasted that the end of hostilities after 11 days was in large part due to the quiet, behind-the-scenes tough love that Biden prefers during tricky diplomatic moments.

The circumstances of today’s legal change, which curbs the powers of the judiciary, greatly differ from the violence that killed at least 10 Israelis and 260 Palestinians. But the push by this unusually far-right Israeli government to neuter the Supreme Court has roiled the nation, leading to weeks of protests and 10,000 Israeli Defense Forces reservists suspending their volunteer duty.

Biden, who considers the bond between Washington and Jerusalem “bone deep,” tried the same play this time around. Earlier this year, U.S. officials told their counterparts in Israel to drop the controversial reform proposals. In March, Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption charges, denounced the “pressures” from the White House. It was only in recent days that Biden made his disapproval unmistakably public, telling multiple media outlets that Israel shouldn’t “rush” the legal changes.

And yet on Monday, Israel’s Netanyahu-led parliament passed the reforms anyway. The reality is that Biden and his team rarely go beyond rhetoric to pressure Israel, avoiding the use of other potential leverage.

The president has ruled out linking the billions of dollars in U.S. military aid to Israel to changes in its behavior. He also has kept many of the pro-Israel policies imposed by former President DONALD TRUMP.

While the Biden team recently named a point person to help Israel bring more Arab partners into the Abraham Accords, it has not tried in any meaningful way to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Days ago, Biden gave Israel a long-sought prize: A shot at getting into a program that would let Israelis travel visa free to the United States.

JAKE SULLIVAN, the White House national security adviser, said on the sidelines in Aspen that the Biden-led pressure wasn’t about “dictating or lecturing,” but rather taking a “principled position on this that is judicious, but straightforward — and that's how we deal with our best friends.”

Some analysts suggest that no amount of American disapproval would have changed the Israeli prime minister’s mind.

“I’m confident that Netanyahu has been fully aware of the dangerous implications of the judicial overhaul legislation all along, but losing his coalition was just not a price he was willing to pay,” said American University’s GUY ZIV. “He is driven by his political and personal needs, which trump national security, economic considerations and relations with the United States.”

For now, it appears that the Biden administration is still holding out hope. White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE called the results “unfortunate” in a statement, but noted that the measure passed narrowly and said the administration hopes to help “build a broader consensus.”

Read the rest of Alex and NAHAL TOOSI’s story here.

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The Inbox

MESSAGE RECEIVED: North Korea’s army “confirmed receipt” of a message from U.N. Command requesting info about Pvt. TRAVIS KING, the soldier who crossed into the North last week, a Defense Department official told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

It’s the first communication the two parties have had about King since he broke away from a civilian tour of the demilitarized zone last week and crossed into North Korea. U.N. Command reached out to the Korean People’s Army last week over an existing line of communication established under the Korean War armistice, according to Lt. Gen. Andrew Harrison, the British Army officer who serves as deputy commander of U.N. Command.

The KPA confirmed it had received the message, and said it would discuss the situation with leadership, the DOD official said. U.N. Command is now waiting for additional information.

"The primary concern for us is Private King's welfare," Harrison told reporters in South Korea today, declining to go into further detail about the communications. “None of us know where this is going to end.”

OUTFITTING AN ARMY: China has been secretly sending enough gear to Russia to equip its troops, exposing a loophole in Western sanctions that further demonstrates Beijing’s allegiance to Moscow during the war, our own SARAH ANNE AARUP, SERGEY PANOV and DOUGLAS BUSVINE report.

Russia has imported more than $100 million in drones from China so far this year — 30 times more than Ukraine has. Chinese exports of ceramics, which are used in body armor, increased by 69 percent to Russia to more than $225 million this year. At the same time, ceramics sales to Ukraine dropped 61 percent, to a mere $5 million, customs data shows.

It’s no secret that Beijing has lent a helping hand to Moscow amid increased Western sanctions, with Russia importing Chinese components for body armor that’s being used on the battlefield. The new customs data, however, reveals that as Chinese exports to Russia have gone up, sales to Ukraine have been slashed.

“What is very clear is that China, for all its claims that it is a neutral actor, is in fact supporting Russia’s positions in this war,” HELENA LEGARDA, a lead analyst specializing in Chinese defense and foreign policy at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies, told our colleagues.

KREMLIN DRONE ATTACK: Russian officials accused Ukraine of launching two drones that damaged buildings in Moscow this morning, including one near the defense ministry’s headquarters, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports.

No one was injured in the attacks, the highest profile drone strikes inside Russia since May. Ukrainian forces carried out the strikes, a Ukrainian defense official told CNN’s VICTORIA BUTENKO. “Whatever happens, there will be more of it,” MYKHAILO FEDOROV, Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation, wrote on Telegram after the attacks.

Those followed a week of Russian missile strikes, which continued today, after Moscow pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY promised “retaliation” on Sunday for the bombardment.

About half of the territory Russia had seized has been taken back by Ukrainian forces in their ongoing counteroffensive, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told CNN on Sunday.

The counteroffensive, which observers anticipated to start in mid-spring, didn’t kick off until closer to summer. That’s because Kyiv lacked the necessary weapons, Zelenskyy also told CNN on Sunday. That delay provided Russian troops with the chance to build up their lines of defense, he added.

Read: Who will control Wagner’s empire of war and gold? from the Wall Street Journal

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
2024

COUGH IT UP, EUROPE: Trump said Europe needs to send $100 billion more to Ukraine to match the United States’ contribution so far.

Asked if he’d stop sending money to Ukraine if elected president, Trump dodged: “I’d get the war settled, but money is number one. I’d tell Europe, you're about $100 billion plus short. You got to pay because Europe is smiling all the way to the bank,” he told Fox News on Sunday.

“Europe is doing very little compared to the United States,” he added. “They should be the same number, if not more, and they get away with murder.”

 

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

 
 
Keystrokes

JAPAN’S CHIP POLICY HEARTBURN: As Japan restricts the export of key chip making tools and aligns its semiconductor and chip equipment policy with the U.S. to thwart Chinese growth in the field, some Japanese officials aren’t happy with Washington’s approach, Reuters’ TIM KELLY, KAREN FREIFELD and KENTARO SUGIYAMA report.

In particular, Japanese officials worry that an assertive U.S. posture on semiconductors and chips could anger China. “We feel an odd discomfort with how the U.S. is doing this. There's no need to identify the country, all you need to do is control the item," a Japanese industry ministry official told Reuters.

Though Japan has maintained its new chips policies were not intended to coordinate with the U.S. or target China, China has warned Japan to go no further. Japanese officials worry that China could retaliate by banning Japanese cars, a major worry among Japanese industry leaders.

The Complex

BUG DRONES: The Army has inked a five-year, $94 million contract with Teledyne Technologies for more of the pocket-sized Black Hornet 3 nano drones that are also buzzing around Ukraine’s battlefields, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report.

The Army’s indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract with Teledyne FLIR Defense follows orders for the surveillance drone worth more than $125 million since 2018, when the Army began acquiring it under its soldier-borne sensor program, according to the company. The contract covers the Black Hornets themselves, along with controllers, spare parts and training.

 

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On the Hill

THE BLOCKADE CONTINUES: Eight Democratic and Independent senators today sent a letter to Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL demanding he take action to end Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) hold on military promotions.

In the letter, Sens. MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii), ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.), TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and ANGUS KING (I-Maine), who caucuses with the Democrats, call on McConnell to “exercise” his “leadership to protect the readiness of our military.”

“As the leader of the Republican Conference,” the letter continued, “we count on you to hold your colleagues accountable when they recklessly cross boundaries and upend Senatorial order. Senator Tuberville’s continuation of this stalemate is reckless, dangerous, and must end.”

Broadsides

UN CONDEMNS HUMANITARIAN CENTER ATTACK: The U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine DENISE BROWN condemned Russia’s weekend missile strike on a culture center in Donetsk that was doubling as a humanitarian relief center.

Per the United Nations, the Donetsk attack was the fourth Russian attack against aid facilities in Ukraine in the month of July.

“It is outrageous that Russian forces appear to be repeatedly targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine,” Brown said in a statement on Sunday. “Vital relief items and medical supplies were destroyed, and humanitarian and health services will be impacted.”

ANOTHER ONE: North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the sea, the Associated Press’ KIM TONG-HYUNG reports, the latest in a string of weapons tests protesting U.S. submarine visits to South Korea. This missile test comes as a second U.S. nuclear submarine, the U.S.S. Annapolis, visits South Korea this week, docking at a port in Jeju Island.

Transitions

— Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN’s last day on the job will be July 28, Blinken announced. “President Biden has asked VICTORIA NULAND to serve as acting deputy secretary until our next deputy secretary is confirmed,” he said.

— MatrixSpace named retired Army Lt. Gen. MICHAEL BARBERO to its advisory board, alongside recently added retired Air Force Lt. Gen. GLENN SPEARS and retired Army Brig. Gen. ROBERT HIPWELL.

What to Read

— Sens. MARK KELLY and TAMMY DUCKWORTH, The New York Times: We’ve been on the front lines. We know what Ukraine needs.

TRITA PARSI and FRIDA STRANNE, Foreign Policy: Sweden is the land of Ikea, ABBA — and China hawks

NATHALIE TOCCI, POLITICO: How the EU can enlarge

Tomorrow Today

The Center for Strategic and International Studies and Chatham House, 9 a.m.: Conceptualizing peace plans in the Ukraine conflict

The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 9:30 a.m.: Industrial Policy and U.S. Foreign Policy

The United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: Sri Lanka: One year after the Aragalaya

The Asia Society Policy Institute, 10 a.m.: Assessing the outcomes of Modi’s U.S. state visit

The Wilson Center Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition, 12:30 p.m.: The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: National security and spectrum for 5G

The Brookings Institution, 2 p.m.: A book discussion on Rep. ADAM SMITH'S book "Lost and Broken: My Journey Back from Chronic Pain and Crippling Anxiety," focusing on the state of mental health in the armed forces.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we never fail to pressure and criticize.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose actions we always approve of. 

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Innovating at hypersonic speed.

Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more.

 
 

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