How Biden got to yes on ATACMS

From: POLITICO's National Security Daily - Tuesday Oct 17,2023 08:16 pm
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By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward

President Joe Biden walks towards Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House.

The administration’s move to send the Anti-Personnel/Anti-Materiel, or APAM, an older version of the ATACMS that Ukraine had long sought, was kept secret for weeks after President Joe Biden made the final call. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

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With help from Daniella Cheslow, Eric Bazail-Eimil, John Sakellariadis and Nahal Toosi

The path to today’s news, that Ukraine finally got its much-desired ATACMS from the U.S. and is already using them on the battlefield, was long and windy — and took a final compromise to make it a reality, Alex reports alongside LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL McLEARY.

It was mid-July, and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN was worried. Ukrainian forces were struggling to penetrate Russian front lines in a slow-moving counteroffensive, and time was running out to retake significant territory before a renewed Russian offensive in the fall.

Sullivan told his team to come up with options for additional weapons the U.S. could send to Kyiv that could help Ukrainian forces hit vulnerable targets deep inside Russia’s defensive lines.

Working together with the Defense Department and the National Security Council team came up with an idea. While the U.S. military’s existing stocks of the long-range Army Tactical Missile System were in short supply, the U.S. could send the medium-range version, carrying warheads containing hundreds of cluster bomblets that could hit targets 100 miles away.

The administration’s move to send the Anti-Personnel/Anti-Materiel, or APAM, an older version of the ATACMS that Ukraine had long sought, was kept secret for weeks after President JOE BIDEN made the final call, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the discussions.

Their delivery and use marks a major escalation in the administration’s defense of Ukraine, providing Kyiv’s forces with a new and destructive ability to strike Russian targets well behind the front lines. That’s exactly what happened early today, with Ukrainian outlets reporting that Kyiv had destroyed nine Russian helicopters in the eastern cities of Berdyansk and Luhansk.

U.S. officials kept the decision to send them, and their actual shipment to the battlefield, quiet in order to maintain Kyiv’s element of surprise. Washington and Kyiv were concerned that announcing the transfer would prompt Russia to move equipment and ammunition depots farther behind their front lines and out of range of the missiles.

Read the full story to learn more.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Delivering Multi-Domain Deterrence.

Fast-moving threats require agile deterrence with multi-domain enabled platforms. Lockheed Martin’s combat-proven systems work together to protect critical assets against evolving threats.

We're accelerating production of combat-proven capabilities like HIMARS and PAC-3 MSE to support our customers’ national security missions. Learn more.

 
The Inbox

HOSPITAL HIT IN GAZA: Gaza’s Health Ministry blamed Israel for an airstrike on a hospital that killed at least 500 Palestinians today, The Associated Press reports.

The attack, which Hamas said killed patients, children and women, would be by far the deadliest airstrike by Israel since 2008 if confirmed. The Israeli army told our own DANIELLA CHESLOW that "a hospital is a highly sensitive building and is not an IDF [Israeli military] target. The IDF is investigating the source of the explosion.”

The IDF said in a statement: “Intelligence from multiple sources we have in our hands indicates that Islamic Jihad is responsible for the failed rocket launch which hit the hospital in Gaza.”

Airstrikes also hit parts of southern Gaza, killing dozens of people, the AP reports. Another strike in central Gaza killed AYMAN NOFAL, a top Hamas commander, according to the militant group, marking the highest-profile militant death since the conflict began.

The bombings came as Israel continues to block shipments of food, water, fuel and other aid into the territory, with mediators struggling to break a deadlock as civilians, aid groups and hospitals grow increasingly desperate. Israeli strikes on Gaza have killed at least 2,700 people — nearly two-thirds of whom were children — and wounded 9,700 others, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

On Wednesday, Biden will arrive in Israel amid the escalating violence — and potentially on the cusp of when Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza. He’ll also make a stop in Jordan, where he’ll meet with President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI of Egypt and King ABDULLAH II of Jordan. MAHMOUD ABBAS, the president of the Palestinian Authority, canceled a planned meeting with Biden following news of the hospital airstrike, the AP reports.

Today, Abdullah reiterated that, despite international requests, Egypt and Jordan will not open their borders to Palestinian refugees, per Reuters’ RIHAM ALKOUSAA.

Read: Dissed by Saudi Arabia, lectured by Egypt: U.S. diplomacy meets Mideast reality by our own NAHAL TOOSI.

CABLE CUT? A second underwater telecommunications cable in the Baltic Sea was damaged today, thickening the plot after a cable and gas pipeline in Finland and Estonia were disrupted without explanation last week, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports.

Swedish Civil Defense Minister CARL-OSKAR BOHLIN said Stockholm has yet to determine what caused the issue with the cable linking Sweden to Estonia, though it continues to function. It came days after the first anniversary of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Germany and Russia, which is still under investigation.

The disruption also raises new concerns about the safety of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, as Estonia and Finland said the damage was likely sabotage.

MORE WARSHIPS: At least two more Navy ships carrying thousands of Marines are heading to the Israeli coast to help in any potential U.S. response to the fighting on the ground between Hamas and Israel, two Defense Department officials told our own PAUL McLEARY Monday evening.

The USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, including up to 2,400 Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, will stage in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in the event they are ordered to evacuate Americans caught in the fighting.

MEETING EVAN: U.S. Ambassador to Russia LYNNE TRACY met with detained Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH today, a week after a Kremlin court extended his pretrial detention. That’s her fifth visit with the American journalist, whom the U.S. has designated as “wrongfully detained.”

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2024

VIVEK ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH: Republican presidential hopeful VIVEK RAMASWAMY is calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan and an end to military assistance to the country in light of its actions in Nagorno-Karabakh last month, our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL writes in.

In an interview with BOB VANDER PLAATS, the leader of the conservative Christian group The Family Leader, Ramaswamy said the U.S. “aided directly and indirectly” Azerbaijan’s incursion into the contested enclave by providing decades of military assistance to the Caucasus country. He’s the first presidential candidate to publicly call for a tougher policy on Azerbaijan and more support for neighboring Armenia.

Ramaswamy also condemned the waivers Azerbaijan has received under Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which have opened the door for wide-ranging military cooperation between Washington and Baku over the past two decades. Ramaswamy said “those Section 907 exemptions need to go, all of the [U.S.] arming of Azerbaijan needs to go.”

"Roll that back, and roll further back the damage that we've already done by taking away a lot of that financial support and undoing that in the form of sanctions or otherwise,” Ramaswamy continued.

ICYMI — DeSantis spars with Haley over Gaza comments by Eric.

Keystrokes

CHINA’S TACTICS: Top intelligence officials from the U.S. and four of its closest allies made a rare public appearance today to warn about Beijing’s “unprecedented” efforts to steal cutting-edge Western technology, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in.

The first-of-its-kind public gathering of the heads of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance — the U.S., the U.K., Australia, New Zealand and Canada — was meant to sound the alarm on China’s increasingly aggressive campaigns to target Westerners driving innovation in key areas of emerging tech, like quantum computing, biosynthetics and artificial intelligence, FBI Director CHRIS WRAY said onstage at Stanford University.

“There is no greater threat to innovation than the Chinese government. And it is a measure of how seriously the five of us and our services take that threat that we have chosen to come together to try to highlight that,” said Wray, who was seated next to his Five Eyes counterparts.

NEW CHIP RULES: The White House placed new restrictions today on what types of advanced semiconductors American firms can sell to Beijing, curbing most chip shipments from the U.S. to Chinese data centers, our own GAVIN BADE reports (for Pros!).

The updated rule from the Commerce Department will tighten export controls on certain types of semiconductors used in artificial intelligence and advanced computing. It builds on a landmark rule, issued last October, that imposed export controls on a variety of advanced microchips and the machines used to manufacture them.

The Biden administration has argued the restrictions are needed because chips could be used in military systems, like implementing artificial intelligence for guiding hypersonic missiles, setting up high-tech surveillance systems or cracking secret American codes.

 

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The Complex

BROWN’S CALCULUS: New Joint Chiefs chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN is more soft-spoken than his predecessor Gen. MARK MILLEY, staying far away from Washington’s political battles — and some say that’s just what the Pentagon needs now amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, Lara reports.

Brown is not one for making news. In public appearances, he typically sticks to the facts, and rarely displays emotion. Brown did not speak publicly about the Hamas attack until a few days after it occurred, leaving his civilian counterparts to take the lead on messaging. Some analysts say his quiet approach will enable military leaders to keep their heads down and focus on the job at hand as he juggles the wars involving Israel and Ukraine.

“I think it will be so good for the relationship between the American public and its military, and between political leaders and the military, to have someone who listens as carefully and talks as little as Gen. Brown does,” KORI SCHAKE, the director of foreign and defense policy at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told Lara.

NEW NUKES: SASC’s Strategic Forces Chair ANGUS KING (I-Vt.) and ranking member Sen. DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.) are offering bipartisan backing for a new call to expand America’s nuclear arsenal ahead of a committee hearing on the topic Thursday, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scooped.

King and Fischer issued a joint statement in favor of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission’s new report: “As the top members of the Strategic Forces subcommittee, we understand the need for a nuclear force posture that can successfully deter adversaries in a worsening global threat environment. We appreciate the bipartisan Commission’s work to develop and unanimously endorse this report.”

On the Hill

SCOTT’S MOVE: Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) unveiled legislation today that would stop Iran from accessing $6 billion made available in exchange for the release of American prisoners, our own ELEANOR MUELLER reports.

Scott’s bill would restrict the ability of the Treasury and State departments to loosen sanctions for the Iranian funds and direct Treasury to report to lawmakers on other Iranian assets blocked by U.S. sanctions, with the South Carolina Republican calling it “a comprehensive approach to wielding our economic sanctions tools against Iran.”

It’s the latest example of Scott — the top GOP member of the Banking Committee — leveraging his power as the only Republican presidential candidate in Congress to take legislative action amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, a likely attempt to bolster his natsec cred among other experienced candidates like former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY, former President DONALD TRUMP and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, who served in the military.

Scott’s not the only lawmaker asking for the White House to take a harder line on Iran. A bipartisan group of some 110 House members are encouraging the White House to take a firmer stance in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks on Israel last week, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. The letter includes 63 Democrats and 50 Republicans, who wrote that they support “every tool available to defeat radical terror.”

Among the asks for Biden: holding Tehran accountable for funding Hamas, imposing the stiffest sanctions against Iran, curtailing the country’s oil trade to China and putting pressure on other countries like Qatar and Turkey that have supported Hamas.

“Iran must be held fully accountable for its continued role in funding Hamas and Islamic terror,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter. “We urge the Administration to take all necessary steps to cut off Iranian funding sources.”

Read: Bipartisan group of governors push Congress to help Israel by our own NICK REISMAN.

 

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Broadsides

STOP THE SPREAD: Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) is calling on social media companies to crack down on disinformation about the Israel-Hamas conflict, blaming the platforms for “amplifying” incorrect info on some occasions.

“According to numerous reports, deceptive content has ricocheted across social media sites since the conflict began, sometimes receiving millions of views,” Bennet wrote in a letter to X, Meta, TikTok and Alphabet today. “In many cases, your platforms’ algorithms have amplified this content, contributing to a dangerous cycle of outrage, engagement, and redistribution.”

He also urged the companies to provide information about the types of content that have been removed from their platforms, the policies in place to mitigate false and misleading content about the conflict, and their efforts to limit the spread of posts “glorifying hate speech or terrorism,” Bennet said in a separate statement.

Transitions

MARY ROBBINS is now chief speechwriter for the Department of Labor’s Acting Secretary JULIE SU. She previously was deputy director of speechwriting for Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and is an SKDK consulting firm alum.

MICHELLE STRUCKE is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as director and senior fellow for the Humanitarian Agenda. She was DOD’s deputy assistant secretary for global partnerships.

— Corvus Group CEO LAURIE MOE BUCKHOUT is running as a Republican for the seat held by House Armed Services Committee member Rep. DON DAVIS (D-N.C.). She ended her Army career as chief of electronic warfare.

What to Read

— Sen. MARCO RUBIO, RealClearPolitics: How Biden and Congress can work together to support Israel

— Rep. SETH MOULTON, CNN: Netanyahu needs an endgame

HANIN GHADDAR, Foreign Policy: Will Hezbollah hold back or escalate?

Tomorrow Today

Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee and Research and Technology Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Joint hearing on balancing knowledge and governance: foundations for effective risk management of artificial intelligence

The Wilson Center's Middle East Program, 10 a.m.: The Hamas-Israel war

The Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 10 a.m.: Assessing Ukraine's political and energy resilience before winter

The House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: An examination of the Iranian regime's threats to homeland security

The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: 2023 Department of Defense Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction

The Hudson Institute, 10:30 a.m.: The Arab oil embargo 50 years later: lessons learned and missed opportunities

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 12 p.m.: Xi and Biden’s diplomatic dance: APEC summit and the future of U.S.-China relations

The Center for a New American Security, 1:30 p.m.: The Space Force's innovative personnel solutions, ambitious acquisition targets, and efforts to improve the resiliency of America's space assets

The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Challenges to European security following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who never gives us anything we want.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the gift that keeps on giving.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Delivering Multi-Domain Deterrence.

Fast-moving threats require agile deterrence with multi-domain enabled platforms. Lockheed Martin’s combat-proven systems work together to protect critical assets against evolving threats.

We're accelerating production of combat-proven capabilities like HIMARS and PAC-3 MSE to support our customers’ national security missions. Learn more.

 
 

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