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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  “What I'm doing is going to start to make the case for what a modernized BIS looks like in terms of functions, tools, staff, money,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil, Daniel Lippman and Lara Seligman Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO is headed to the Reagan National Defense Forum in California this weekend to deliver a key message: Her staffers need more authorities and resources to keep sensitive technologies out of China and Russia — and win the global competition over the future of artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Over the next few months, Raimondo plans to push to expand the powers of the Bureau of Industry and Security, the office that keeps a blacklist of companies and organizations that can’t import America’s most sensitive technologies. That sales job will start with conversations on and off stage in Simi Valley. “What I'm doing is going to start to make the case for what a modernized BIS looks like in terms of functions, tools, staff, money,” she told Alex in a Friday phone call before boarding the plane to Simi Valley. “I need to get buy-in on a strategy of a more muscular BIS from all stakeholders, including Capitol Hill, because I want input and then, later, we'll put in a big budget ask.” The office’s budget is just north of $200 million, which Raimondo said is not enough to make it an analytical powerhouse to keep up with fast-moving technological changes. She confirmed that she will “eventually” ask lawmakers for far more than that amount next year but wouldn’t reveal a specific number she had in mind. The GOP-led House Foreign Affairs Committee is currently conducting a review on how to reform the office and aims to release its report as early as next week, NatSec Daily has learned. “I’m glad to see Secretary Raimondo agrees with me that BIS needs to be more muscular and robust –– and her commitment to make it so. But actions speak louder than words. I look forward to hearing more specifics about how she plans to accomplish this, and to work with her to ensure the changes will be effective,” Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the panel’s chair, said in a statement. But it’s not a given that members of Congress, who are generally hawkish toward China and Russia, will greenlight her budget request. “Republicans in Congress may be skeptical of Secretary Raimondo’s proposal so she will need to convince them this isn’t just about growing a government bureaucracy but modernizing the institution to be a sharper tool in the U.S. government’s arsenal,” said ERIC SAYERS, an expert on the broad U.S.-China competition at the Beacon Global Strategies consultancy. Raimondo met with her Chinese counterpart in August to relay that the U.S. would, for example, continue to sell billions of dollars in semiconductors to Beijing. But, she continued, there’s no appetite in Washington to export the most sophisticated AI chips to be used against America. President JOE BIDEN delivered the same message to Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING in San Francisco last month. Raimondo added that she expects to meet with Chinese Minister of Commerce WANG WENTAO again as part of a “regular cadence of communication” with Beijing on these issues, but no meeting between the two is set. Pros (!) can read Alex’s full story.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL DIDN’T SHARE REPORT: There are no indications Israel shared secret Hamas war plans laying out a detailed blueprint for the Oct. 7 attacks with the U.S. intelligence community, our own LARA SELIGMAN, Matt and ERIN BANCO report. The New York Times’ RONEN BERGMAN and ADAM GOLDMAN reported Thursday night that Israeli officials obtained Hamas’ battle plan for the attacks, codenamed “Jericho Wall,” more than a year before it occurred but dismissed it as beyond the militant group’s capabilities. Officials told the Times that if the Israeli military had taken the roughly 40-page document more seriously, they could have prevented the attacks, which killed more than 1,200 Israelis and led Israel to launch a devastating invasion of Gaza. But Israel ignored warning signs as recent as July, including a daylong Hamas training exercise that mirrored the war plan, according to the report. Though the U.S. and Israel have a close intelligence relationship, Israel does not appear to have shared the secret battle plans with U.S. intelligence officials, current and former officials told POLITICO. “It’s very problematic” that Israel didn’t share the document, a former official said. The war continued to rage on today following the expiration of the latest pause in fighting. Israel is prepared for the long haul, planning to fight Hamas for a year or more, several people familiar with the preparations told The Financial Times’ NERI ZILBER: “This will be a very long war . . . We’re currently not near halfway to achieving our objectives,” a person familiar with the Israeli war plans told Zilber. The most intensive phase of the ground operations could come in early 2024, the officials said, and Israel is aiming to kill the three top Hamas leaders: YAHYA SINWAR, MOHAMMED DEIF and MARWAN ISSA. Israel is also planning to kill top Hamas leaders around the world once the conflict winds down, Israeli officials told The Wall Street Journal’s DION NISSENBAUM. U.S. ROLE IN ENDING CONGO-RWANDA WAR: When Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES flew to Congo and Rwanda last week, she presented a detailed proposal to the nations’ leaders for a pact to reduce fighting in eastern Congo — and promised to help enforce the deal, Erin also reports. The leaders largely signed off on the U.S. plan, which included commitments for Rwanda to pull back its forces and offensive military equipment by Jan. 1 and for Congo to ground its drones, according to a readout of the meetings. The readout shows that the U.S. is playing a much more active role than previously disclosed in trying to calm tensions in the increasingly volatile region, where conflict between Congolese forces and rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda is threatening to escalate into all-out war between the countries. It’s a surprising level of engagement for a U.S. administration that has played a more passive role in the talks between warring parties involved in other conflicts on the continent. ‘NEW PHASE’ OF UKRAINE WAR: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said his country’s war with Russia is in a new stage as winter fighting looms, vowing to continue the battle despite his concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could overshadow the conflict. “We have a new phase of war, and that is a fact,” Zelenskyy told The Associated Press’ JAMES JORDAN, warning about Russia’s capabilities following its largest most extensive drone attack of the war Saturday. The Ukrainian leader also expressed mild disappointment at Kyiv’s failure to make much progress in its summer counteroffensive. Ukraine didn’t get all the weapons it wanted from Western allies, he said, and the size of his military force didn’t allow for a quick advance. Today, however, it appears that Kyiv scored a significant win. Ukraine’s security service blew up railway connections linking Russia to China in a clandestine strike carried out deep into enemy territory, a senior Ukrainian official told our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA. Kyiv set off several explosions inside a tunnel of the Baikal-Amur highway in Buryatia, located some 3,700 miles east of Ukraine, the official said. It’s the “only serious railway connection” between Russia and China, the official added, which Moscow uses to transport military supplies. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Raimondo, because you know Alex couldn’t let her off the phone without asking the most important question to the NatSec Daily audience. (Are y’all calling yourselves “NatSexies”?) When the Commerce chief isn’t thinking about technology and her sprawling department, Raimondo winds down with a dry martini. The best place to sip that sweet nectar is at her Rhode Island summer house accompanied by her husband. Cue the awwwwws. Cheers, madam secretary! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | ‘SECOND HOLOCAUST’: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said Thursday night that “Hamas wants nothing more than a second Holocaust” during his primetime debate on Fox News with California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM. “They want to destroy Israel and wipe every single Jew off the map. Israel has every right to defend itself,” DeSantis continued, adding that Biden “should not be kneecapping” Israel during its military operation against the militants in Gaza. DeSantis has made staunch support for Israel –– a defining characteristic of his time in politics –– a pillar of his foreign policy messaging. The problem is that doesn’t distinguish him much from former President DONALD TRUMP, the frontrunner in the race, or his rival for No. 2, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. NIKKI HALEY.
| | TIKTOK SAFE IN MONTANA: A Montana judge blocked a state ban on TikTok, marking a major win for the video-sharing app Thursday, our own REBBECA KERN reported. The company had argued the law violated the First Amendment. TikTok filed its lawsuit against Montana in May, seeking for the court to invalidate the law and block the state — the first one in the U.S. to attempt to ban it due to concerns about the company’s ties to the Chinese government — from enforcing it. The judge agreed with the platform’s free speech argument. GROUNDED HAWK: Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) pledged Thursday to block a vote confirming Lt. Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH as the new leader of both the National Security Agency and Cyber Command, our own MAGGIE MILLER and JOHN SAKELLARIADIS were first to report Thursday evening. Wyden said in a statement that he won’t approve the new head until the NSA releases info on alleged surveillance of Americans. Defense and intelligence officials have refused to make public information he received in 2021 about the NSA purchasing and using location data collected on Americans, he explained.
| | | |   | | | | | ‘NEW CATEGORY OF WEAPONS’: Just after midnight, Anduril Industries announced two new aerial vehicles that founder PALMER LUCKEY told reporters represent “a totally new category of weapons,” our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The Roadrunner and Roadrunner-M are the company’s latest offerings. The first is a twin-jet powered, vertical takeoff and landing drone that can carry a variety of payloads, but its “M” variant is an air defense missile that the company says can knock down everything from small drones to large aircraft — at a fraction of the cost of Patriot missiles. Luckey and the company’s chief strategy officer, CHRIS BROSE, said the new systems cost in the “low hundreds of thousands” of dollars to build, and that the U.S. government has been involved in the design and testing since the start of the effort two years ago.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ARMENIA SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDING: A bipartisan group of more than 50 lawmakers will send a letter to Congressional leadership today to include aid to Armenia as part of the supplemental, our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL writes in. Led by Sen. ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.) and Rep. ANNA ESHOO (D-Calif.), other signatories include Sens. JACK REED (D-R.I.), ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.) and Reps. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.), ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.), ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.), KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.), LORI TRAHAN (D-Mass.) and DAVID VALADAO (R-Calif.). The push for supplemental funding for Armenia comes as lawmakers increasingly voice concerns that current assistance to refugees from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which neighboring Azerbaijan invaded back in September, is insufficient. "Having reshaped the region using military force, we fear that Azerbaijan will continue its aggression by threatening the sovereign territory of Armenia," Eshoo and Padilla wrote in a Dear Colleague letter earlier this week. "To deter further Azerbaijani aggression, our letter requests that at least $10 million in security assistance for Armenia be included in the supplemental appropriations bill." JOHNSON’S CHALLENGE: Just over a month into his new job, House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is facing his biggest test yet: negotiating for defense policy legislation that satisfies the House and Senate, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD report. When the text of the National Defense Authorization Act is out, conservatives will judge the legislation by whether the culture war provisions they pushed to include — including limits to the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, funding for medical treatment for transgender troops and military diversity programs — made it into the final product. But other issues, including a potential extension of foreign surveillance authorities, must still be sorted out by party leaders in both chambers. That wrangling has delayed the likely filing of the compromise bill until early next week, three people familiar with the process told our colleagues. “It better not be just whatever the Senate wants,” said Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas). “It needs to demonstrably change the abuses that are going on at the Pentagon in terms of its mission and its focus and make sure that it’s not just taking out all of the stuff that we fought to get into the NDAA.”
| | JAPAN’S WARNING: Japanese officials want the U.S. to stop flying its V-22 Osprey aircraft near the island nation after a fatal crash Wednesday, but they don’t think Washington is listening. "We are concerned that despite our repeated requests, and in the absence of sufficient explanation [from the U.S. military], the Osprey continues to fly," Japan's chief cabinet secretary HIROKAZU MATSUNO told reporters today, per Reuters’ MARIKO KATSUMURA and JOHN GEDDIE. That remark followed the Pentagon saying Thursday that it’s still flying the aircraft for now and wasn’t aware of an official request from Japan to ground them. In a statement today, DOD spokesperson SABRINA SINGH said that the unit that had the accident isn’t conducting flight operations and that the U.S. is sharing info on the crash with Japan. “We have good communications between our senior leaders and are in constant dialogue regarding aviation safety and other safety-related issues,” she added. Read: German government’s meeting with Iranian dissident ends in acrimony by our own PETER WILKE
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: SAMANTHA VINOGRAD is leaving the Department of Homeland Security where she most recently was assistant secretary for counterterrorism, threat prevention and law enforcement policy, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She is spending a few weeks with family before starting a new role in the private sector in January. — The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers today formally appointed YURII MYRONENKO, a drone strike squadron commander, to serve as the new head of the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, the nation’s main cybersecurity agency. Myronenko is set to take over the SSSCIP almost two weeks after the Cabinet dismissed former SSSCIP chief YURII SHCHYHOL and VICTOR ZHORA, the agency’s deputy director, for alleged embezzlement charges. — MICHAEL LUMPKIN is now chief of staff of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He most recently was managing director at the Fera Group and also served as a commissioner of the Afghanistan War Commission. — COURTENAY DUNN is now director of the Ukraine Assistance and Recovery Division in the Office of Coordinator of U.S. Assistance to Europe and Eurasia at the State Department. She most recently was director for Pakistan at the National Security Council.
| | — YAROSLAV TROFIMOV, The Wall Street Journal: Does the West Have a Double Standard for Ukraine and Gaza? — MAX ELBAUM and BILL FLETCHER JR., The Nation: Gaza, Biden, and a Path Forward — ANNA ZACHARIAS, New Lines Magazine: Coming to Grips With Ireland’s Civil War
| | — The Middle East Institute, 1:15 p.m.: The silent enemy, presence and evolution of the jihadist threat in the broader Mediterranean — The Atlantic Council, 2:30 p.m.: Designing the future joint force — The Wilson Center, 4 p.m.: Forgotten warriors: The long history of women in combat Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would never ask to increase our budget. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who deserves all the money.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
