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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Palestinians fleeing the Israeli ground offensive arrive in Rafah, Gaza Strip, on Dec. 5, 2023. | Hatem Ali/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration is already thinking about the postwar scenario for Gaza, and what’s clear is there are a lot of bad options that not everyone agrees with. NatSec Daily and our own NAHAL TOOSI are hearing from U.S. officials about efforts to draft plans that keep coming back to the Palestinian Authority as the top choice to take control of the enclave if Hamas is defeated. The problem is that the PA, which governs parts of the West Bank and controlled Gaza before Hamas, has long been beset by allegations of corruption and inefficiency. It’s unlikely to be seen as a legitimate ruler of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza. In short, we’re hearing a lot of resignation about the art of the possible. Arab countries are worried about overtaxing the PA, the PA is concerned about looking like an Israeli and American puppet and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has long been invested in a weak PA, said a U.S. official, granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal thinking. “But nothing works and would be accepted by regional countries unless the next Gaza leadership is largely local and the PA. The problem is the PA is far from ready and capable, so we need something in the interim.” The interim issue remains a major question mark. An idea for a peacekeeping force has been floated, but neither the U.S. nor Arab countries want to send their troops into Gaza. Another possibility, per Nahal’s reporting, is asking the United Arab Emirates to help rebuild health facilities or train civil servants. But one major problem, the U.S. official we spoke to said, is that there’s simply no regional buy-in on what comes next. The issue took up much of Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s time during yet another visit to the Middle East last week. “We want, and are, putting out ideas and principles. But for this to work, it can’t be us dictating the plan. We need this to be a broadly developed approach that all the key players can feel some ownership of,” said the official. Of course, all of this is moot if Israel doesn’t defeat Hamas. While Israeli forces are operating in all corners of the territory, there's fear that their methods might only lead to tactical victories but, overall, in the words of Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN over the weekend, “strategic defeat.” There is a chance that the militants won’t be pushed out of Gaza. And if they are, there could still be many people sympathetic to Hamas’ cause who will seek to derail any plan. “If they have any ability to fight, any postwar effort unravels before it starts,” said the U.S. official. “Despite all the desire for a cease-fire, someone — somehow — has to get Hamas out of Gaza and off the table as a meaningful entity.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | WEST BANK VISA RESTRICTIONS: The State Department is implementing a new policy to restrict visas for violent Israeli settlers attacking and displacing Palestinians in the West Bank. State is engaging with Israeli and Palestinian Authority leadership to urge governments to curb violence against civilians in the region, Blinken said in a statement. “Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have the responsibility to uphold stability in the West Bank,” Blinken said. “Instability in the West Bank both harms the Israeli and Palestinian people and threatens Israel’s national security interests. Those responsible for it must be held accountable.” IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME: Ukraine’s top natsec leaders are in Washington this week for a series of critical meetings with their U.S. and NATO counterparts as Kyiv seeks to become a weapons-building powerhouse once again, our own PAUL McLEARY reports. The Ukrainian delegation is being led by presidential adviser ANDRIY YERMAK, Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV and ALEXANDER KAMYSHIN, minister of strategic industries. After meeting with lawmakers today, they’ll spend Wednesday and Thursday huddling with their counterparts from the White House, Pentagon, Commerce and State departments as well as key NATO members and executives from the largest defense firms. Around 350 U.S., Ukrainian and European industry and government representatives are slated to attend the closed-door sessions that will feature the national armaments directors from across the 50 nations that have banded together to supply Ukraine. The meetings have major implications for Ukraine’s ability to manufacture arms in the coming years. With the war against Russia at a standstill and concern building over long-term Western support for Kyiv, the gathering is likely a barometer for what that support will look like in the months and years ahead. Scroll down to Broadsides for more on Ukraine’s military woes. ‘YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED’: Israeli troops entered the main city in the southern Gaza Strip today in the largest ground attack since the pause in fighting last week ended, Reuters’ BASSAM MASSOUD and IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA report. As the military stormed eastern parts of Khan Younis, Israel dropped new leaflets telling residents — many of whom were forced to move south during the beginning of Israel’s ground operation — to stay inside shelters during the fighting. "In the coming hours, the IDF will begin launching an intensive attack on your area of residence to destroy the terrorist organization Hamas," the leaflets read. "For your safety, stay in the shelters and the hospitals where you are. Don’t get out. Going out is dangerous. You have been warned.” The latest military operation is the second stage that’s going to be “difficult militarily,” Israeli government spokesperson EYLON LEVY said, according to Reuters. OIL CAP FOILED: The West has tried to put price caps on Russian oil to stymie one of Moscow’s main cash flows, but the latest effort has failed a year since it was first agreed, according to a new report seen by our own VICTOR JACK and GABRIEL GAVIN. G7 nations and the EU imposed a $60-per-barrel ceiling on Russian crude oil last December in an attempt to keep oil supplies stable globally while starving the Kremlin’s war chest. But widespread circumvention, gaping loopholes and the ongoing fuel business mean Moscow is still earning billions from its flagship export that it can use to prolong the war. It’s not that the price limit has had no effect. Over the last year, the scheme has cost the Kremlin $37 billion in export revenues, the equivalent of around two months of earnings this year, new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank, shared with Victor and Gabriel, found. But that's far less than those who designed the rules had hoped. "The impact of the price cap has been limited due to inadequate monitoring and enforcement," said ISAAC LEVI, who leads CREA's work on Europe and Russia, with Western nations failing to crack down on sanctions loopholes. FRUSTRATION FOMENTING: A firefight involving U.S. commercial vessels in the Red Sea this weekend has left some U.S. officials frustrated by what they see as the Biden administration’s deliberate downplaying of a major threat to American forces, our own LARA SELIGMAN reported Monday evening. After Houthi drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping in recent weeks, the Pentagon said officials did not believe the Houthis were aiming for the U.S. warships. But four other officials with knowledge of the discussions said in interviews that U.S. naval forces are clearly under threat in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. “If our ships see something is coming near them or toward them, they are going to assess it as a threat and shoot it down,” a DOD official said, adding: “You’d be hard-pressed to find another time” U.S. ships have been this challenged in the region. RUSSIA’S ALLEGED NATO PLOT: Russian intelligence sought to instigate violent demonstrations throughout the EU to derail Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, according to a report by Finnish broadcaster YLE, including a protest to mock Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, the main roadblock to the Scandinavian countries’ accession to the alliance. Finland joined NATO last spring but Sweden is still awaiting ratification. “The intelligence service's plan highlighted that violent demonstrations in Sweden following the burning of the Quran increased fear of radical Islam in E.U. countries,” per YLE. “The objective stated in the document was to increase friction between Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, and European and other NATO countries.” The details, leaked from an intelligence document, are an inside look into how the Kremlin operates in the shadows to cause division among allies. The document said the strategy entails ”using as much anti-Islam and anti-Erdogan graffiti as possible in well-known public spaces and spreading the protests widely on social media,” per YLE. ICYMI — Putin plans to visit Saudi Arabia, UAE this week, aide says by our own LAURA HÜLSEMANN. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | THE DEBATE 4: Four Republican candidates made the cut for tomorrow’s GOP debate: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. NIKKI HALEY, former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE and entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY. The last debate was heavy on foreign policy, and with the war between Israel and Hamas raging plus a Ukraine funding battle in Congress, many expect it to be a main theme again this time. Haley’s command of foreign policy at the debate four weeks ago is one reason why she has surged in the polls, though she remains far behind former President DONALD TRUMP, who has once again chosen to skip the event. Other candidates will be looking for a similar breakout this time around.
| | VULNERABLE NUCLEAR NETWORK: Russia and China-linked hackers worked their way into a British nuclear network, and now the political opposition to the government in London is hitting hard over a reprocessing plant’s vulnerabilities. An investigation by The Guardian found that networks around Sellafield, “Europe’s most hazardous nuclear site,” are under “special measures” because of cybersecurity concerns, including revelations that outside contractors could plug memory sticks into the system unsupervised. “The hack and its potential effects have been consistently covered up by senior staff at Sellafield,” per ALEX LAWSON and ANNA ISAAC. Now the U.K. government is facing questions over the issue at Sellafield, home to the world’s largest store of plutonium. The opposition Labour Party’s Shadow Energy Security Secretary ED MILIBAND said “the government has a responsibility to say when it first knew of these allegations, what action it and the regulator took and to provide assurances about the protection of our national security.” A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero responded to the criticism in The Guardian: “Many of the issues raised are historical and the regulator has for some time been working with Sellafield to ensure necessary improvements are implemented. We are expecting regular updates on how this progresses.”
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | COMING SOON: Officials from the Pentagon and the Chinese Ministry of Defense are hard at work behind the scenes setting up a series of engagements between the two nations in 2024 on the heels of the recent meeting between President JOE BIDEN and Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. ELY RATNER, the assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, told reporters at a breakfast event today that the two sides are in “active discussions” for future engagements and on implementation of issues Biden and Xi committed to during their meeting in San Francisco last month. “We are currently in the process of discussing with the PRC Defense Department about what that is going to look like in the months and years ahead,” Ratner said, noting this will comprise “a combination of what will be meetings, calls, dialogues and engagements over the next 12 months.” When pressed on when the first “touchpoint” between defense officials would take place, Ratner said “months” was “the very latest” to expect to see this, but that no formal announcement was set as of this week.
| | COACH CAVE: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) is dropping the vast majority of his holds on military officer promotions, backing down from his vow to hold on until the Pentagon changes an internal abortion policy. As our own URSULA PERANO reports, Tuberville’s surprising white flag follows months of pressure and growing frustration from his GOP colleagues, as the amount of held military promotions ballooned to over 400. Twelve people — each nominated for four-star positions — will still be blocked by Tuberville. REPUBLICANS’ PLAN FOR UKRAINE: House Republicans in charge of three top national security-focused committees proposed a “plan for victory in Ukraine” this afternoon. The 28-page document, released by Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL, Armed Services Committee Chair MIKE ROGERS and Select Committee on China Chair MIKE TURNER, calls for three actions: providing weapons to Ukraine when needed, tightening sanctions on the Kremlin and transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Combined, those measures would force VLADIMIR PUTIN to negotiate to end the war, they contend. “This will take congressional Republican pressure, which has been the key to unlocking every new needed weapon system to Ukraine since the start of the war,” the lawmakers wrote. On a related note, House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON called on Biden to make extensive changes to the U.S. immigration system before Congress provides more funding for Ukraine’s military efforts. In a letter to the president today, Johnson wrote that further American funding to Kyiv is "dependent upon enactment of transformative change to our nation's border security laws." The House passed legislation to reform southern border policy over six months ago, Johnson wrote, but Senate Democrats haven’t approved the measure. It’s a major obstacle for the Biden administration, which has been playing out in the Senate in recent weeks as Republicans push for strong border security in exchange for approving Ukraine assistance. Johnson’s ultimatum came in response to a Monday letter from the White House, which warned lawmakers that foregoing funding would kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield. Read: Administration to Congress: Don’t let surveillance authority expire by our own JORDAIN CARNEY.
| | UKRAINE PAIN: More than 21 months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the mood is turning grim in Kyiv, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive didn’t provide the results Kyiv hoped for, and the war is now entering winter in a stalemate. There’s no end in sight to the fighting, and politicians in Kyiv are desperate for a plan for what to do next. “All we hear so far from [the military] is: ‘Give us more people and millions of artillery shells.’ That’s unrealistic,” a person familiar with the matter told Veronika. Ukrainian politicians say the military’s main idea seems to be to draft many more Ukrainians and to press Kyiv’s allies for more artillery ammunition. Civilian officials, meanwhile, want the military to provide a proper plan for the war, hinting the brass has none. But military officials told Veronika that a plan does exist. And Russia, sensing the cracks in Ukraine’s leadership, has been spreading rumors of a political rivalry between Ukraine’s top general, VALERY ZALUZHNY, and President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, while also stressing that Ukraine's allies are growing tired of the fight.
| | | |   | | | | | — CLAYTON SWOPE joins the Center for Strategic and International Studies as deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow with the International Security Program. Swope previously led national security and cybersecurity public policy for Amazon’s Project Kuiper, an initiative to increase global broadband access through a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit. — Ret. Col. MARC WARREN has joined The Jewish Institute for National Security of America as a distinguished fellow. He was the senior legal adviser for the 101st Airborne Division, JSOC and coalition forces in Iraq.
| | — Gov. KRISTI NOEM and Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON, Fox News: Defund the Chinese Communist Party in America — BRETT HOLMGREN, Semafor: A key enabler of U.S. diplomacy: section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — DANIEL SILVERBERG and ELENA McGOVERN, The Wall Street Journal: America’s chance to blunt China’s encroachment
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: China's food security challenges — The Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Tackling global corruption to strengthen democracy and security — The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Transnational repression: authoritarians targeting dissenters abroad — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Semiconductor industry in the U.S. and Europe: case for Chips Acts 2.0? — The Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee, 3 p.m.: The status of Department of Defense recruiting efforts and plans for FY2024 Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whom we would happily overthrow with no post-coup plan. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who whispers “Viva la revolución!”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
