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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  The Houthis won’t target Chinese and Russian ships transiting the Red Sea, a senior militant official said last week. | Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Hailey Fuchs and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The U.S. reckons China could pressure the Iran-backed Houthi militants to quit their assaults in Middle Eastern waters, as we reported yesterday. There’s a lot of skepticism about that happening, so let's unpack how likely Beijing is to take action. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY confirmed today that the U.S. would like to see China get more involved. “China has influence over Tehran,” he said following a question by POLITICO in the White House briefing room, “and they have the ability to have conversations with Iranian leaders that we can’t.” “We would welcome a constructive role by China, using the influence and the access that we know to try to help stem the flow of weapons and munitions to the Houthis,” Kirby continued. NatSec Daily spoke to foreign officials and experts to gauge their reactions. An official from the Indo-Pacific, granted anonymity to discuss their government’s own assessment, told NatSec Daily there is a strong belief that China will get angry about increasing transport costs and work to stop the missile attacks. Others agree. ANITA KELLOGG, a National Defense University professor who focuses on Chinese economic statecraft, said there’s validity in pushing China to pressure Iran to then lean on the Houthis. China has many investments in Egyptian ports, which are currently emptied as commercial ships navigate away from the Red Sea. “They’re losing a lot of money,” Kellogg said of Beijing. China has shown a desire to broker deals in the Middle East. Early last year, it worked with Saudi Arabia and Iran — long-time regional adversaries — to restore relations between them. Beijing could see advantages in building a reputation as a protector of global commerce, especially while its own economy is reeling. Kellogg said she was “skeptical” China could pull this off, as it would pose a potentially bigger diplomatic test for the country in the Middle East. But “it could happen for sure,” she continued. “I wouldn’t rule it out.” Others would. “If China is really determined to stop Houthi attacks, it will have to talk to Iran, but even there it’s not at all clear Tehran exercises that kind of control over their Yemeni ally,” said BILAL SAAB, who leads the defense program at the Middle East Institute. “There’s a difference between influence and control. Iran has the former but probably not the latter.” Iran does have levers it could pull. The Houthis are seeking more weapons from Iran to shoot nearby vessels. Tehran could cut off that supply, strangling the militants of the missiles they need to threaten global trade. Kirby said the U.S. was watching those Iran-Houthi shipments “very closely.” But China might be enjoying watching the rest of the world squirm. The Houthis won’t target Chinese and Russian ships transiting the Red Sea, a senior militant official said last week.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more. | | | | | ALMOST SWEDE-IN: The Turkish parliament today ratified Sweden's bid to join NATO, with President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN now expected to sign it into law, our own STUART LAU and LEYLA AKSU report. Turkey's move, which follows 20 months of diplomatic bargaining with Stockholm and Washington, leaves Hungary as the final NATO country yet to proceed with Sweden's bid to join the 31-member military alliance. The ratification was adopted by the national assembly by a vote of 287 to 55. ISRAELI TROOPS KILLED: Palestinian militants killed 21 Israeli soldiers in the deadliest attack on the nation’s troops since the Oct. 7 attack, Israel’s military announced today. On Monday, Israeli reservists were preparing explosives to level a pair of buildings near a refugee camp when the militants fired a rocket-propelled grenade at a nearby tank, triggering the explosives and causing both two-story buildings to collapse on the soldiers, The Associated Press’ JOSEF FEDERMAN, NAJIB JOBAIN and SAMY MAGDY report. Hours later, Israeli troops encircled the southern city of Khan Younis, a significant advance in the ground offensive, though it's unclear how effective the move would be in rooting out Hamas or freeing hostages, the AP reports. As Axios’ BARAK RAVID scooped on Monday, Israel proposed a pause in fighting up to two months in exchange for Hamas releasing all remaining hostages. A senior Egyptian official, however, told the AP that Hamas rejected the proposal and said it won’t release more hostages until Israel ends its offensive and pulls out of Gaza. Speaking with The Washington Post’s SHIRA RUBIN, STEVE HENDRIX and LIOR SOROKA, an Israeli military official suggested that the fight against Hamas isn’t close to being over: “The war has damaged Hamas as a terrorist entity, but this is not a three-month mission.” RUSSIAN STRIKES: Multiple people were killed in Kyiv and Kharkiv early this morning after Russia attacked Ukraine with 41 missiles, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 21 of the missiles, VALERY ZALUZHNY, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said in a statement. In Kyiv, one person was killed, 22 were wounded and 13 were hospitalized, Ukrainian military officials said. In Kharkiv, five people were killed and more than 48 were injured, town officials said in a statement. Later this morning, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN made the case for continued international support for Ukraine in his first public remarks since his release from a two-week hospitalization for complications from surgery to treat prostate cancer, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. He read carefully from his prepared remarks, but skipped over a paragraph acknowledging his health. Austin praised Kyiv’s resolve in its defense against Russia’s invasion and touted military aid provided by European allies in his opening remarks at a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the coalition of nations providing weapons and equipment to Ukraine. The meeting comes as the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine is unclear. An international aid package totaling more than $100 billion for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan that President JOE BIDEN sent to Congress months ago remains in limbo. The package includes more than $60 billion for Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL re-upped his support for a deal today: “The goals of supplemental national security legislation are straightforward: secure our southern border, help fight Putin’s aggression in Europe, invest seriously in competition with China, and stand with Israel and restore real deterrence against Iran,” he tweeted. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | TRUMP’S IRON DOME: On the campaign trail, former President DONALD TRUMP keeps promising to build something that isn’t The Wall: an American version of Israel’s “Iron Dome” missile defense system. “We’ll build an Iron Dome over our country, a state-of-the-art missile defense shield, and it’s all made in the USA,” he said during a weekend rally in New Hampshire, NBC News’ ALEX SEITZ-WALD reports. “I think it’s time that we have one.” It’s an idea he’s floated off and on. “We’re giving billions of dollars to other countries so they can build a dome. But we don’t have a dome ourselves. We’re going to have the greatest dome ever,” Trump said last month in Iowa. Of course, the U.S. has already invested billions of dollars into a missile defense system to protect against weapons coming in from North Korea and elsewhere. That system has had limited results, at best. What’s more, the U.S. need for an Iron Dome isn’t really comparable to Israel, which is flanked by groups like Hamas and Hezbollah lobbing rockets into its territory. Mexico and Canada aren’t doing that, and even if they were, the U.S. is about 450 times bigger than Israel in size — huge territory that would be much harder to cover.
| | | ‘UNACCEPTABLE’ OUTAGES: Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) called the persistent power outages in the Gaza Strip “unacceptable” while the Biden administration has pushed Israel to restore consistent telecoms services to the territory. “Not only do they make life even more challenging for those living under siege in Gaza, they also make it near-impossible for those working to deliver life-saving aid and prevent the outside world from receiving information on the critical situation there,” Van Hollen told our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!). Palestinian telecommunications group Paltel posted on X Monday that “telecom services in [the] Gaza Strip have been lost” for the 10th time since Oct. 7, and that the region is “blacked out.” Internet tracking group NetBlocks confirmed the news, posting on X that “the incident is likely to severely limit most residents’ ability to communicate.”
| | | |   | | | | | NATO STEPS UP: NATO signed a $1.2 billion contract to replenish Ukraine’s artillery stocks with tens of thousands of rounds, the military alliance announced today. The contract allows for the purchase of 220,000 rounds of 155-millimeter ammunition, the most frequently requested type of artillery round during Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to a NATO statement. “This demonstrates that NATO’s tried and tested structures for joint procurement are delivering,” Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG said in a statement. “Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a battle for ammunition, so it is important that Allies refill their own stocks, as we continue to support Ukraine.”
| | SENATE AIDE SAYS NSC SIDES WITH GOP ON REPO: A Senate aide said the White House supports Sen. JIM RISCH’s (R-Idaho) bipartisan bill to send seized Russian assets to Ukraine even without the amendments Democrats will propose. The staffer, who was not authorized to speak publicly as a matter of practice, told NatSec Daily the “NSC has said that they fully support the language that Risch has before the committee and they don't see a need for further amendments in the process.” That poses a challenge to Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who proposed an amendment to the so-called REPO bill that would require all G7 nations to sign off before transferring the seized funds. Risch’s bill waives a judicial review and wouldn’t mandate input from allies. If the aide is correct, that would mean the White House would be siding with the top Republican on SFRC and not the panel’s leading Democrat. An administration official, granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal thinking, wouldn’t confirm whether Team Biden backs REPO as is or wants the Cardin amendment passed. “We are supportive of having domestic legislative authorities that will give us flexibility as we continue to discuss with partners and allies on how best to cease Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and ensure Russia pays for the damage it has caused,” the official said. “We are also engaged in active conversations with our allies and partners, including the G7, to ensure we are all coordinated in making Russia pay.” The business meeting and markup on the measure is set for Wednesday.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | DOOM FOR DOOMSDAY CLOCK? The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists today released its Doomsday Clock, an annual report predicting how close humanity is to apocalyptic catastrophe. But some say it's arbitrary and alarmist. “I do not believe the public, policymakers, or the media should place any weight in the announcement until the Bulletin makes significant methodological changes,” ZAK KALLENBORN, an autonomous weapons expert and frequent Bulletin contributor, told NatSec Daily. Kallenborn argues that the clock is set by the subjective views of an internally-selected board, which is not necessarily representative of expert views. He also said there doesn’t appear to be a standard process with consistent questions that would allow comparisons over time. This year’s clock was set to 90 seconds before midnight, matching last year’s measurement, which was the closest the clock has ever been to midnight (when global catastrophe would theoretically happen): “The risk of last year continues with unabated ferocity and continues to shape this year,” said RACHEL BRONSON, president and CEO of the outlet, in the announcement video. JAMES PALMER, deputy editor at Foreign Policy, succinctly summed up the overarching criticism of the clock: “They just make it up,” he tweeted. "The Doomsday Clock is a metaphor meant to start conversations around issues of existential threat. We know some may disagree with our decision and encourage broader discussion of these issues,” JOHN POPE, a Bulletin spokesperson, told NatSec Daily. DOUBLE AGENTS WANTED: The CIA released a series of Russian-language promotional videos in an attempt to persuade Russian intelligence employees to work as double agents for Washington, Reuters’ ANDREW OSBORN reports. The videos attempt to appeal to patriotic Russians who feel betrayed by corruption among Moscow’s elite and are frustrated by how the war in Ukraine has been handled: "Those around you may not want to hear the truth. But we do. You are not powerless," one of the videos posted on X says. "The top leadership has sold the country out for palaces and yachts at a time when our soldiers are chewing rotten potatoes and firing from prehistoric weapons. Our people are forced to give bribes to simply find work," a man in one of the clips says. The Kremlin, meanwhile, laughed off the attempt. “Somebody should tell the CIA that VKontakte is much more popular here than the banned X and that VKontakte has a much larger audience,” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said today, according to state-run news agency TASS, referring to the Russian social media platform.
| | — TAMARA WITTES will be the president of the National Democratic Institute. She previously has been director of foreign assistance at State. — CHRISTOPHER BURK is now the director of external affairs at the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board. He most recently was a senior adviser at the Embassy of Finland. — Former Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON has joined American Global Strategies as non-executive vice chair.
| | — STEPHEN WERTHEIM, The Atlantic: Biden’s democracy-defense credo does not serve U.S. interests — MARCUS WALKER and CARRIE KELLER-LYNN, The Wall Street Journal: A war in all but name simmers at Israel-Lebanon border — ELLIOT JI, War On The Rocks: Rocket-powered corruption: why the missile industry became the target of Xi’s purge
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Global technology competition in the age of artificial intelligence — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Beyond the horizon: outlining risks and opportunities in 2024 — Foreign Policy, 10 a.m.: The economic impacts of AI — The Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: Analyzing Israel's strategy in Gaza — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: The Israel-Gaza conflict and threat of regional war — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Air Force priorities in an era of strategic competition — The Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Reinforcing a free and open Indo-Pacific — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 11 a.m.: Book discussion on "The Lost Peace: How the West Failed to Prevent a Second Cold War" — The Jewish Democratic Council of America, noon: Israel and Gaza: What comes next? — The Heritage Foundation, noon: A decade of decline: the need to restore America's military power — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Book discussion on “The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century” — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Book discussion on "Pillars for Freedom: An Exploration of the Pillars of America's National Power and the Foundations and Principles on Which They Rest” — New America, 6 p.m.: The challenges to security in 2024 Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who couldn’t push her way out of a wet paper bag. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who influences everybody.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
