Outlier at the G-20

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Monday Jul 17,2023 10:00 am
A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jul 17, 2023 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan and Sue Allan

Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Global finance ministers meet in India

→ All eyes watching for news on a foreign-interference inquiry

→ Sentiment is growing the military is underfunded

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

Workers install a logo ahead of G20 meeting in Gandhinagar, India, Thursday, July 13, 2023. Gujarat state capital Gandhinagar will host the Third Finance and Central Bank Deputies (FCBD) Working Group Meeting from July 14 to 16 and Third Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) Meeting on July 17 and 18. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki)

G-20 finance ministers are meeting today in Gandhinagar, India. | AP

DIGITAL TAX ISOLATION The pressure is on for Canada to drop its plans to push ahead on a digital services tax on large tech firms.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND is likely getting an earful about it this week, as G-20 finance ministers meet in Gandhinagar, India, today. G-7 counterparts already huddled on the sidelines Sunday.

Freeland was hearing about it back home, anyway.

Business Council of Canada President GOLDY HYDERwarned Freeland in a letter that the move will open up trade retribution from the U.S., and pointed to the other political calendar Canadian lawmakers should always consider.

“The timing would also coincide with the beginning of the U.S. election cycle, a period in which cross-border irritants such as the DST can become dangerously politicized by officials seeking election.”

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, too,issued a Friday warning, and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai has been raising the issue for a while now as well.

— On the outs: Canada found itself isolated last week in pressing forward with January implementation.

But some analysts have warned the deal could fall victim to domestic U.S. politics — that Republican opposition and lack of enthusiasm among Democrats makes ratification in Congress difficult to imagine.

Noteworthy readout: India’s finance ministry tweeted that minister NIRMALA SITHARAMAN met with Freeland on the sidelines and talked progress on “trade-related negotiations between India and Canada.”

Freeland mentioned Canadian pension funds are “keen to explore investing in Indian Infrastructure Funds as India offers a stable investment climate.”

Wheels up: Finance and central banking aren’t the only G-20 meetings on tap in India this week. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON will head to the G-20 energy ministers meeting on July 22.

Environment follows the week after. The official leaders summit happens in September.

CALL ME MAYBE — PIERRE POILIEVRE says he’s waiting on Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU to announce details of a public inquiry into China’s alleged role in Canadian elections.The Conservative leader says he’s offered input on timelines and the mandate of an investigation.

“We have names ready to share,” Poilievre said Friday during a media availability in a Vancouver grocery store. “We’re sitting next to our phone waiting for him to call.”

Over the weekend: The New York Times brought readers up to speed on the evidence of China’s interference in Canadian politics.

“They just vanished, vaporized, disappeared,” former MP KENNY CHIU said of support from ethnic Chinese voters in his British Columbia riding during the 2021 campaign.

The Times story appeared days after a Wall Street Journal feature about pressures on the Liberal government to confront the allegations.

UP AND VANISHED — It’s Canada’s slowest fast-moving file. And one of the few hot issues revving up in summertime with Parliament not sitting.

Now that the government’s high-risk, high-reward Online News Act has become law, broadcasters and newspapers are starting to feel the pain from that gamble materializing.

Canadian news publications are warning /reminding their readers to find them through other channels as their links disappear from Facebook, Instagram and Threads.

Meta’s move to block news in response to the law is rolling out with explanations to users of why the content is gone, and a growing number of provincial and municipal governments are pulling ads from its platforms in protest, with B.C. the latest addition to the list.

Watch for: Whether many more governments and companies follow in their footsteps, or the show of force peters out.

Yet to be answered is whether the Liberal Party will ever follow suit in a show of support for the legislation it campaigned on, or if marketing through Meta’s platforms is now too crucial for success in Canadian politics to put that on pause for any amount of time.

But the big question is who will cry uncle first.

The next frontier: While this fight drags out in Canada, south of the border, the American news wire service Associated Press signed a deal with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, licensing its archive of news stories.

C-18 makes no mention of generative AI, but it could be the next hurdle for Canada’s news industry to grapple with once the dust from the news block-a-thon settles.

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


The Inuit Circumpolar Council will hold its first in-person international gathering of Inuit leaders in five years in Ilulissat, Greenland.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be in Halifax for a Laurier Club evening reception at the Westin Nova Scotian. He'll be joined in the room by Sport Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE, who is in town for the North American Indigenous Games.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is at meetings of the G-7 and G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors through Tuesday in Gandhinagar, India.

NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will be in Toronto where he will meet with small business owners. In the evening, he has plans to canvass with Ontario NDP candidate THADSHA NAVANEETHAN. 

PAPER TRAIL


MILITARY PRECISION — Antiquated. Underfunded. Scandal.

Those words all came up in focus groups asked about the Canadian Armed Forces during government-contracted research from February that was just recently made public.

The terms peacekeeping and humanitarian aid also made appearances. Mostly, though, the group couldn’t recall what the military is up to these days.

“Among the few who had noticed something, it tended to pertain to allegations of misconduct and to activities related to the recent conflict in Ukraine,” the research said.

But don’t take that as a sign the public lacks opinions on some of the biggest issues facing the military today: funding, staffing and the handling of misconduct allegations.

Best budget indicators: Few in the focus groups “seemed to be able to think of a credible threat to the security and sovereignty of Canadians.”

But polling found 47 percent believe the military is underfunded, up 7 percentage points from the last survey from 2021.

Perceptions Canada’s military has the “equipment it needs” have plunged to 35 percent from 50 percent in 2016.

Recruitment woes: Few focus groupers would discourage a friend from joining the forces, but some in the 18-34 age bracket, “especially women, were not convinced that it would be an advisable career option for a woman, mostly because of what they had recently heard regarding misconduct allegations.”

That concern showed up in the annual tracking polling, too.

“Compared to the 2020 survey results, agreement with the CAF being a good career choice for visible minorities increased from 44% to 63%, while agreement for women decreased from 70% to 58% over the same period,” it said.

A majority raised concerns about systemic racism, but the forces notched a big improvement on the sense that “racist or hateful attitudes or behaviors are not tolerated.”

MEDIA ROOM

Flames from the Donnie Creek wildfire burn along a ridge top north of Fort St. John, British Columbia, on Sunday, July 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Some 380 wildfires are now burning in British Columbia. | AP

The Globe reports that the Canadian Armed Forces and the Canadian Coast Guard are expected to be on the ground today in British Columbia to support the firefighting effort.

Also for the Globe, photographer JESSE WINTER captures scenes from a planned ignition on a wildfire near Vanderhoof, British Columbia.

— The Associated Press reports: Russia halts wartime deal that allows Ukraine to ship grain in a hit to global food security.

— “She wears the stink of cruelty,” NIIGAAN SINCLAIR writes in the Winnipeg Free Press of Premier HEATHER STEFANSON and her announcement that Manitoba would not support the search of a landfill for the remains of Indigenous women.

— At the Assembly of First Nations summer meeting in Halifax, JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD spoke to APTN’s FRASER NEEDHAM about what’s missing from the Liberal government’s UNDRIP action plan.

PETER AMSTRONG asks: Is the Bank of Canada making things worse? The CBC News report features JIM STANFORD, ARMINE YALNIZYAN and MIKE MOFFATT.

— In case you missed it, Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM told the Globe’s MARK RENDELL in an exclusive interview after the latest rate hike: “It’s working … But it’s not working as quickly or as powerfully as we thought it would.”

— Star journalist RAISA PATEL dredged up a brief to PCO warning TikTok gave Ottawa “false” assurances about its data collection practices.

— The Sun’s BRIAN LILLEY takes JONATHAN WILKINSONto task for skipping out on a big LNG conference moved to Vancouver from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. His conspicuous absence was also noted by the Logic days earlier.

— The Star’s MARTIN REGG COHN casts former supreme BEVERLEY MCLACHLIN as oblivious for remaining on Hong Kong’s highest court.

— The Decibel pod features the University of Toronto’s TIMOTHY SAYLE: Why NATO is back to Cold War strength.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter: Poilievre to PM: Pick up the phone.

From ZACK COLMAN: ‘We are not prepared’: Disasters spread as climate change strikes.

In other news for Pro s:

Spending bill would delay NOAA plan to save right whales.

The 2024 field (minus Trump) goes through the Tucker Carlson stress test.

New York grid operator identifies electricity shortfall for 2025.

Diplomacy is not 'an act of weakness' — decoding Biden's China outreach.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to former MPs CHARLES LAPOINTE and CYRIL KEEPER.

HBD + 1 to Liberal MP JAMES MALONEY.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. 

Spotted: U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN, touring the Nova Scotia legislature, visiting the Africville Museum and meeting with Premier TIM HOUSTON. … On Saturday, he dined at the Chickenburger with former speaker GEOFF REGAN.

Sen. DENISE BATTERS at Saturday’s Stamps-Roughriders game with a green tambourine and former CFL player JOEY WALTERS.

Movers and shakers: The prime minister has mixed up the lineup in the senior public service: MICHAEL VANDERGRIFT will become deputy minister of natural resources;

MOLLIE JOHNSON, now associate deputy minister of natural resources and an adviser to the clerk on decarbonization, will become deputy secretary to the Cabinet (plans and consultations), Privy Council Office; JEFFREY LABONTÉ becomes associate deputy minister of natural resources; PAUL HALUCHA, now associate deputy minister of environment and climate change, becomes deputy secretary to the Cabinet (clean growth), Privy Council Office; TAKI SARATAKIS was reappointed president of the Canada School of Public Service.

MANON BRASSARD was appointed chair of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB) for a five-year term.

YAROSLAV BARAN and MARCI SURKES have been appointed “practioners in residence” at the Riddell Graduate Program in Political Management.

Former commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force Lieutenant-General (Ret’d) MICHAEL HOOD is joining Bluesky Strategy Group as a senior associate.

Media mentions: HIREN MANSUKHANI has left the Prince George Post to work at the Calgary Herald.

TRIVIA


Friday’s answer: The abolition of the death penalty was passed by Parliament, 131 in favor to 124 against, on July 14, 1976.

Props to KRISTA OUTHWAITE, GEORGE YOUNG, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LAURA JARVIS, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, WARREN ASKEW, JOANNA PLATER, DAN MCARTHY, JIM CAMPBELL and GORDON RANDALL.

Monday’s question: Born on this day, this Bank of Canada governor once served as an executive assistant to the first Bank of Canada governor.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and Emma Anderson.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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