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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, left, welcomes Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin prior to a meeting on whether to seek NATO membership, in Stockholm, Sweden, Wednesday, April 13, 2022. | Paul Wennerholm/TT via AP | With help from Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has once again proven his strategic genius as Sweden and Finland today announced their intentions to apply imminently for NATO membership. Just like the Kremlin boss wanted, he may soon get more NATO, not less. Helsinki’s decision on whether to join the alliance will happen “within weeks, not months,” Finnish Prime Minister SANNA MARIN told reporters today during a joint press conference Wednesday morning. Her counterpart, Swedish Prime Minister MAGDALENA ANDERSSON, added her country was following a “similar process” and saw “no point” in delaying an analysis about NATO accession. This is an accelerated timeline, as announcements about Finnish and Swedish inclinations weren’t expected until the summer. But political realities in both countries changed the calculus, we’re told. In Finland, 98 of 200 Parliamentarians have already expressed support for the idea, leading the government to strike while the missiles are hot. Also, the government today released a white paper detailing the downturn in Finland’s security situation. While it features no declarative statement on accession, some passages make clear Helsinki is leaning in the “let’s join” direction. "Should Finland and Sweden become NATO members, the threshold for using military force in the Baltic Sea region would rise, which would enhance the stability of the region in the long term," it reads. Meanwhile, in Sweden, the opposition conservatives said if they form a government after the September general election, they will move to join NATO. That prompted the ruling Social Democrats to push for that, too, as the issue has become a national one ahead of the vote. A report on whether or not to join is expected between mid May and early June. Opinion polls have also shown a marked increase in support for Sweden becoming an alliance member — following a similar uptick in Finland. The expectation is both countries will officially apply for membership during NATO’s Madrid summit in June, kicking off a tumultuous period for Western politics and European security. Politically, the legislatures of all member states must approve of their entry to the alliance. A single country could derail those plans, though. Officials in the U.S. and Europe are most worried about Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN — who’s friendly with Putin — playing spoiler. It’s also possible a MARINE LE PEN presidential victory in France this month would scramble the pro-NATO politics in Paris. Then there’s Putin himself, who may decide that officially losing Finland and Sweden to NATO — despite years of close collaboration with the alliance — is a bridge too far. The Kremlin has already warned the two countries against becoming the 31st and 32nd members while reports indicate Russia has moved military equipment closer to the 830-mile border with Finland. “This is a period of vulnerability, and that has to be recognized and prepared for,” ANNA WIESLANDER, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council think tank, told NatSec Daily. Not everyone is sweet on the idea, including in the U.S. BEN FRIEDMAN, policy director for the pro-restraint Defense Priorities think tank, tweeted that just because Finland (and supposedly Sweden) wants to join NATO “doesn’t mean they have a sovereign right to join or that it’s in the US interest to let them in and threaten to nuke Russians on their behalf. We can get to decide who we defend.” All indications, though, are that Congress would disagree with Friedman and approve Sweden and Finland applications. Stockholm and Helsinki likely don’t have to worry about Washington, D.C, then — it’s their immediate neighborhood that’s the potential problem. $800M IN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE: Biden is authorizing the transfer of around $800 million in additional weapons to Ukraine amid the ongoing Russian invasion, confirming reporting by Alex and ANDREW DESIDERIO Tuesday evening. Using his presidential drawdown powers, Biden will give Kyiv’s forces 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 300 Switchblade drones, 18 155mm howitzers and protective equipment against possible chemical attacks along with other weapons, among other items. Two U.S. officials told NatSec Daily that the helicopters were initially part of the package, but Ukraine said to take them out so they could inspect them to see if they’d be helpful for their purposes. But on his call with Biden, Zelenskyy said he wanted the helicopters, so they were added back into the package. “This new package of assistance will contain many of the highly effective weapons systems we have already provided and new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine. These new capabilities include artillery systems, artillery rounds, and armored personnel carriers. I have also approved the transfer of additional helicopters. In addition, we continue to facilitate the transfer of significant capabilities from our Allies and partners around the world,” Biden said in a Wednesday afternoon statement. The U.S. has already delivered $2.4 billion in military assistance since Biden took office, though the vast majority of that aid has come since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Since the war began on Feb. 24, Russia has lost roughly 19,800 personnel, 739 tanks, 1,964 armored combat vehicles, 358 artillery systems, 115 multiple-launch rocket systems, 158 warplanes, 143 helicopters, seven ships and 132 drones. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — “We take with great attention yesterday’s reports on the use of munitions with a poisonous substance in Mariupol against the defenders of the city. It is not yet possible to draw one hundred percent conclusions about what kind of substance it was. It is clear that it is impossible to conduct a full investigation and full analysis in the blocked city.” (Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY) — “Today, the key task of Russian troops is the east, and they are trying to gain a foothold on the geographical borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. They currently consider Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts as areas of application of their armed forces, but at the same time there may be a threat to other regions as well.” (Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister HANNA MALYAR) — “Russia’s appointment of Army General ALEXANDER DVORNIKOV as commander of the war in Ukraine represents an attempt to centralise command and control. An inability to cohere and coordinate military activity has hampered Russia’s invasion to date. Like many senior Russian Generals, Dvornikov has previous command experience in Syria. Furthermore, since 2016 he has commanded Russia’s Southern Military District bordering Ukraine’s Donbas region. Russian messaging has recently emphasised progressing offensives in the Donbas as Russia’s forces refocus eastwards. Dvornikov’s selection further demonstrates how determined Ukrainian resistance and ineffective pre-war planning have forced Russia to reassess its operations.” ( U.K. Ministry of Defense) — “The enemy continues illegal actions regarding the civilian population in temporarily occupied territories. Russians are examined documents, personal things and mobile phones. Also the occupants carry out compulsory inspections of the premises.” ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — The U.S. has “come to no conclusions” on Russia’s alleged used of chemical weapons in Ukraine (U.S. Department of Defense) Global Response: — U.S.: The U.S. will send an additional $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, to include helicopters, drones, howitzers, armored personnel carriers and protective personnel equipment. Headlines: — The Associated Press: “Russia has yet to slow a Western arms express into Ukraine” —The Wall Street Journal: “ Russian Forces Renew Focus on Southern and Eastern Ukraine” —The Washington Post: “Lengthening war in Ukraine creates major problems for global economy” BIDEN ACCUSES RUSSIA OF ‘GENOCIDE’: President JOE BIDEN went rogue yesterday and labeled Russian atrocities in Ukraine as “genocide,” as our own MYAH WARD reported. He first said so during a speech in Iowa on lowering energy costs: “Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank — none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away.” It was unclear if it was a slip of the tongue, as Biden is wont to do. Speaking shortly thereafter with reporters, it was clear the president meant what he said. “Yes, I called it genocide. It has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being — being able to be Ukrainian. And the amount — the evidence is mounting,” he said. “And we’ll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me.” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV railed against the comments , telling reporters Wednesday that Russia finds them “unacceptable to attempt such a distortion of the situation.” French President EMMANUEL MACRON, locked in a tense presidential runoff with a more Russia-friendly opponent, refused today to use the g-word. We asked administration officials if the U.S. had made any determination on Russia’s actions constituting genocide. Turns out it hasn’t, though it now might in order to match Biden’s rhetoric. This is yet another instance in which Biden’s mouth moves faster than the gears of government. In Europe, he seemingly called for regime change, which his own team had to immediately walk back. And he has on multiple occasions suggested the U.S. is duty-bound to come to Taiwan’s defense during a China-led invasion, even though no such policy is on the books. We keep hearing over and over again that Biden is a man who feels things deeply and isn’t afraid to share his views when given the chance. That inclination doesn’t always make things easy for his national security team. U.S. EXPANDING INTEL HELP: The U.S. is expanding and increasing its intelligence support to Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON, WARREN STROBEL and VIVIAN SALAMA reported. “The decision to step up intelligence sharing was made late last week and is intended to help Ukrainian forces better identify how the Russian military plans to attack and to enable the Ukrainians to respond with their artillery, drone attacks and other fire,” they wrote. In other words, the U.S. will more directly help Ukrainians kill Russians to ultimately take back more lost territory. OSCE REPORT STATES RUSSIA COMMITTED WAR CRIMES: The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe today announced that Russia broke international law in Ukraine, mainly citing attacks on maternity hospitals and theaters sheltering civilians. “Taken as a whole, the report documents the catalog of inhumanity perpetrated by Russia’s forces in Ukraine,” MICHAEL CARPENTER, the U.S. ambassador to the Vienna-based body, said in a speech. “This includes evidence of direct targeting of civilians, attacks on medical facilities, rape, executions, looting, and forced deportation of civilians to Russia.” The report, which is damning for Russia, suggests that the March 9 attack on the maternity hospital in Mariupol was done purposefully. “Based upon Russian explanations, the attack must have been deliberate,” the report read. “No effective warning was given and no time-limit set. This attack therefore constitutes a clear violation of International Humanitarian Law and those responsible for it have committed a war crime.” The overall conclusion: There are “clear patterns of international humanitarian law violations by the Russian forces in their conduct of hostilities.”
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Lockheed Martin’s LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @JGedeon1.
| | | PUTIN SAYS BUCHA ‘FAKE’: Putin continues his domestic propaganda push by claiming that the civilian atrocities in the Ukrainian town of Bucha — perpetrated by Russian troops — are “fake.” “When it comes to Bucha … it’s the exact same fake as in Syria,” Putin said, in reference to Russian claims from 2018 that the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian war was staged by foreign agents. Bucha was “a psychological operation staged by Englishmen,” Belarusian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO added during their joint visit in Russia. As POLITICO’s VICTOR JACK reported, “After Russian troops partially withdrew from Bucha, a town outside of Kyiv, earlier this month, authorities discovered roads lined with civilians apparently tied up and shot at close range, as well as mass graves of local residents. Russia has repeatedly denied it was responsible, but numerous media outlets have independently shown that it was unlikely the scenes were staged by Ukraine.”
| | | UKRAINE DOXXING RUSSIA: If you want to understand the success of Ukraine’s intelligence operations during the war, just read the opening two paragraphs of MATT BURGESS’ excellent story in Wired today: “Names, birthdays, passport numbers, job titles — the personal information goes on for pages and looks like any typical data breach. But this data set is very different. It allegedly contains the personal information of 1,600 Russian troops who served in Bucha, a Ukrainian city devastated during Russia’s war and the scene of multiple potential war crimes. "The data set is not the only one. Another allegedly contains the names and contact details of 620 Russian spies who are registered to work at the Moscow office of the FSB, the country’s main security agency. Neither set of information was published by hackers. Instead they were put online by Ukraine’s intelligence services, with all the names and details freely available to anyone online.” Ukraine’s doxxing operations have aired the dirty laundry of once secretive institutions, thus dealing a blow to Russia’s own intelligence operations. These moves won’t only help Ukraine take on the Russians, but help U.S. and allied services better understand the inner workings of the Russian state.
| | | AUSTIN'S TOP MILITARY AIDE TAPPED FOR ARMY NO. 2: Lt. Gen. RANDY GEORGE has been nominated to be the next Army vice chief of staff, according to a public Senate notice. George is the senior military aide to SecDef Austin, a job that has seen many of its past occupants go on to four-star commands. He was previously commanding general of the Army's I Corps. George's nomination was sent to the Senate on April 4 with little fanfare. If confirmed, he'd succeed Gen. JOSEPH MARTIN as the service's second most senior officer.
| | | |   | | | SMALL BIZ FIZZ: The Pentagon is concerned about a “substantial decline” in small businesses participating in the defense industry, and is launching a website next week to attract more nontraditional companies, Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS told reporters per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). The website will show the various “innovation units” at the Pentagon and how to connect with those offices, she said. Hicks previously said the number of defense companies decreased by 40 percent over the last 10 years. Hicks said that the small-business community drives innovation, and that DoD must ensure that contracts set aside for small business are not going to larger companies. The Pentagon is also slated to release a new small-business strategy this spring.
| | | SCHISM OVER SLCM-N: A fight is brewing in Congress over the Biden administration’s decision to defund a new nuclear-tipped sea-launched cruise missile authorized under the Trump administration, reports our own CONNOR O’BRIEN. Republican lawmakers are opposing the move, arguing that Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY and other top officers’ endorsement of the program, known as the SLCM-N, shows that Biden is defying the advice of military commanders on U.S. nuclear deterrence. “That’s all we needed,” Rep. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, said of Milley’s testimony last week in support of the SLCM-N. “I think you’ll see bipartisan support for putting it back in.” If Congress injects funding to keep the nuclear cruise missile alive, it would be yet another blow to advocates who had high hopes for restrained nuclear policy and defense spending with Biden in the White House. HOUSE DEMS WANT CHANGE IN SAUDI TIES: Nearly 30 House Democrats wrote to SecState Blinken demanding a “recalibration” of America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. “A recalibration of the U.S.-Saudi partnership is long overdue in order to reflect President Biden’s important commitment to uphold human rights and democratic values in our foreign policy. Our continued unqualified support for the Saudi monarchy, which systematically, ruthlessly represses its own citizens, targets critics all over the world, carries out a brutal war in Yemen, and bolsters authoritarian regimes throughout the Middle East and North Africa, runs counter to U.S. national interests and damages the credibility of the United States to uphold our values,” they wrote. They’d like an official review to look into Riyadh’s handling of labor rights, the repression of LGBTQ+ people and women’s rights. The letter, led by Reps. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.) and JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.), features signatories like House Foreign Affairs Chair GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and House Intelligence Chair ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.).
| | | CHINA ACTIVISTS SEEK REVISIONS TO RIGHTS REPORT: Human rights activists focused on China are criticizing the State Department’s annual human rights report, which produced a searing indictment of Beijing for systemic rights abuses, per our own PHELIM KINE. Specifically, the activists want a reboot of the report’s format to address documentation blind spots and connect it to policy and initiatives to stop the violations and provide accountability for victims. SHARON HOM , executive director of the New York City-based nonprofit Human Rights in China, said the report’s 30,000-word China section references developments that “had been already extensively reported” by the media, NGOs and the United Nations. The report “is essentially a recap,” she added. The report’s contents also avoid policy recommendations. That contrasts with more policy-oriented annual documents from the Congressional-Executive Commission on China and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which offer detailed suggestions on how to connect their findings to legislative and regulatory initiatives.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America’s next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | — MARK ESPER has been appointed as a partner and chair of the national security practice at Red Cell Partners, an incubation and venture capital firm. He previously served as Defense secretary in the Trump administration. — DAVID SATTERFIELD , who was appointed in January as the U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa, is leaving his post, report Foreign Policy’s ROBBIE GRAMER and COLUM LYNCH. He is a veteran career diplomat who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Turkey.
| | | — RICHARD HOLMES, BuzzFeed News: “The UK Was Warned This Counterterrorism Program Was A Disaster — But Rolled It Out Anyway” — SUI-LEE WEE and CAMILLE ELEMIA, The New York Times: “The Philippines Toppled One Marcos. Now His Son May Become President.” — JOSEPH GEDEON, POLITICO: “ Why prosecuting Russian war crimes in Ukraine could be complicated”
| | | — The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., 7 a.m.: “A Discussion with National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN — with DAVID RUBENSTEIN” — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: “Financing Regional Security: An Update on the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund — with BEATA DASZYŃSKA-MUZYCZKA, ADAM HITCHCOCK, GEORGETTE MOSBACHER, JOE PHILIPSZ, ANDRIS TEIKMANIS and more” — The Washington International Trade Association, 9 a.m.: “Russian Energy Sanctions: A Trade Pivot to a Cleaner Future — with HENNING GLOYSTEIN, ANDREAS GOLDTHAU, MAUREEN HINMAN and VANESSA SCIARRA” — The Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: “The Forum on the Arms Trade’s Annual Conference: Tackling the Arms Trade and Security Assistance Contribution to Corruption — with WILLIAM HARTUNG, MICHAEL PICARD, MIRA RESNICK and JODI VITTORI” — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11:30 a.m.: “A Discussion with Lt. Col. THOMAS MEAGHER” — The George Washington University, 12 p.m.: “U.S.-China Relations: Perilous Past, Uncertain Present — with ALYSSA AYRES, ROBERT SUTTER and JOHN W. TAI” — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: “Defending Guam — with BRYAN CLARK, MATTHEW COSTLOW, PATTY-JANE GELLER, REBECCAH L. HEINRICHS, TIMOTHY A. WALTON and more” — The National Defense Industrial Association, 1 p.m.: “Enabling the Joint Warfight: Joint Fires — with RONALD BOXALL, MARK LEWIS, CHRISTOPHER O’DONNELL, JOHN RAFFERTY and ALAN SHAFFER” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: “Dutch Foreign Minister WOPKE HOEKSTRA on Transatlantic Security After Ukraine — with SETH G. JONES”
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