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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward | | 
So far, the DoD's new version of its autonomous weapons policy seems to be a welcome change. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Defense Department’s original autonomous weapons policy was so unclear that even people inside the Pentagon had a hard time understanding it. Enacted in 2012, Directive 3000.09 was intended to set the record straight on how the department fields and develops autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons systems. It had the opposite effect. But last week, the policy was updated to make things make sense (and, yes, also because department directives require a revamp every decade). It’s mostly a clarification, but there are a couple notable adds. So far, the new version seems to be a welcome change. On top of standard department-wide approvals, both the old policy and the revision require a review process by senior officials before any autonomous weapons — that don’t meet specific exemptions, like being supervised by a person — are developed. The original exemptions list, though, left both officials and experts unsure what was allowed. “We identified the need for clarification about the initial directive, both inside and outside the Pentagon,” MICHAEL HOROWITZ, director of the DoD’s emerging capabilities policy office, told NatSec Daily. “There was a lot of confusion.” In a nutshell: Can the United States develop autonomous weapons? Yes. Are stacks of them hidden in the Pentagon’s basement? Probably not. Because of technology advancements in recent years, the revised policy requires autonomous weapons systems that use artificial intelligence to follow DoD’s AI Ethical Principles policy. Those guidelines outline the design, development, deployment and use of AI. There’s much overlap between autonomous weapons and AI, so the department had to clarify “how these two policy approaches interacted with each other, and that I think has been helpfully done,” GREGORY ALLEN, director of the AI Governance Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told NatSec Daily. Also, exemptions for senior review include autonomous weapons that involve a human operator; human-supervised autonomous weapons used for local defense; and autonomous weapons used to apply non-lethal force against targets. The update further adds a new exemption for human-supervised autonomous weapons that defend drones. “That's interesting and definitely makes autonomous weapon use much easier in general,” ZAK KALLENBORN, a policy fellow at George Mason University, told NatSec Daily. For instance, if a drone is operating in enemy territory, almost any weapon could be viewed as defending the platform, Kallenborn said. A robotic dog carrying supplies, he added, could carry a weapon to defend itself without approval. “If Spot happens to wander near an enemy tank formation, Spot could fight. So long as Spot doesn't target humans,” Kallenborn said. “Of course, clear offensive uses like turning Spot into a robo-suicide bomber would require approval, but there's a lot of vagueness there.” The United States isn’t currently developing autonomous weapons systems, at least publicly. But the directive lays the foundation for that in case such weapons are deemed necessary down the road. “The mission needs of today and those of tomorrow will be different. So, the policies pertaining to the military capabilities of tomorrow need to keep pace,” Horowitz said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | MOSSAD DID IT:Israel’s intelligence agency was behind a drone attack on an Iranian military facility, per multiple reports. The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the news, noted official Iranian statements that claimed the country’s air defenses shot down one of three quadcopters targeting a munitions factory in Isfahan. The other two exploded above the roof and caused minimal damage. Why that facility? It’s unclear, but “Isfahan is a major center of missile production, research and development for Iran, including the assembly of many of its Shahab medium-range missiles, which can reach Israel and beyond,” the New York Times reports. The strike by Mossad comes as violence has flared once again between Israelis and Palestinians and after the U.S. and Israel conducted their largest joint military exercise in their history. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN delivered a message of calm upon landing in Israel on Monday. “Calls for vengeance against more innocent victims are not the answer. And acts of retaliatory violence against civilians are never justified,” he said following recent Palestinian attacks on Israeli citizens. WE’RE IN THIS TOGETHER: Turkish Foreign Minister MEVLÜT ÇAVUŞOĞLU said it’s possible that Turkey could greenlight Finland’s NATO bid before Sweden’s, the Associated Press’ SUZAN FRASER reports. Çavuşoğlu called Finland’s application “less problematic” than that of Sweden, which Turkish officials accuse of refusing to crack down on terrorists and condoning anti-Muslim protests. Despite the objections, it’s important for Finland to stand alongside its Nordic partner, Finnish Foreign Minister PEKKA HAAIVISTO said. The countries have explicitly told NATO members that “Finnish and Swedish security goes together,” he said. DON’T GET TOO EXCITED: Ukrainian Prime Minister DENYS SHMYHAL wants to secure E.U. membership in the next two years, but European leaders are going to have to manage his expectations, our own SUZANNE LYNCH reports. “We have a very ambitious plan to join the European Union within the next two years,” he told Suzanne. “So we expect that this year, in 2023, we can already have this pre-entry stage of negotiations.” The issue is expected to dominate discussions at this week’s E.U.-Ukraine summit, the first to take place on Ukrainian soil. European leaders have scoffed at the idea, with French President EMMANUEL MACRON saying last year it could be “decades” before Ukraine joins the union — and others privately agree. IT’S GONNA BE A NO FROM ME, DAWG: German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ doubled down on his rejection of supplying Ukraine with fighter jets just weeks after Berlin agreed to send tanks, our own JONES HAYDEN reports. “The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all,” Scholz said in an interview with Tagesspiegel published on Sunday. “I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems.” The chancellor’s comments come after a top Ukrainian official said on Saturday that Kyiv and its Western allies were engaged in “fast-track” talks on possibly sending military aircraft and long-range missiles to help fight Russia. Scholz last week ruled out providing fighter jets, citing the need to prevent further military escalation. The Pentagon, meanwhile, seems at least open to the idea. Poland is ready to give Ukraine its F-16s, per top Ukrainian official ANDRIY YERMAK, but any move would have to be in coordination with NATO allies. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | | 2025 WAR WITH CHINA?:An Air Force general caused quite a weekend stir after predicting the U.S. and China would be at war in just two years. Gen. MIKE MINIHAN, who leads Air Mobility Command, predicted in a Friday memo The Drive obtained that elections in the U.S. and Taiwan in 2024 would distract both governments, giving China an opening to move on the democratic island. While he hopes he’s wrong, Minihan wrote “my gut tells me we will fight in 2025.” Lawmakers were pressed about the memo, including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas)who on Fox News Sunday said "I think he's right though, unfortunately." Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, disagreed with the general’s and chair’s assessment. “It's not only not inevitable, it's highly unlikely," said Smith on the same program, though he added “anything is possible.”
| | | CHIP WAR:The Netherlands and Japan will limit China’s access to technologies that help it build advanced computer chips, the Associated Press’ DEE-ANN DURBIN and AAMER MADHANI report. The decision by the two U.S. allies follows export controls announced in October to keep those materials out of China. Japan and the Netherlands host some of the premier manufacturers of parts and/or machines that make chips, with the European country the far bigger prize here. Per the AP, the Netherlands-based ASML “is the world’s only producer of machines that use extreme ultraviolet lithography to make advanced semiconductor chips.” But the Dutch government blocked the firm from sending any of that equipment to China since 2019. The news comes as the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s top nuclear-weapons lab has been using American computer chips in violation of a decades-old export ban. “The state-run China Academy of Engineering Physics has managed to obtain the semiconductors made by U.S. companies such as Intel Corp. and Nvidia Corp. since 2020 despite its placement on a U.S. export blacklist in 1997,” per the WSJ. SAFETY FIRST: A top priority for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in 2023: cajoling corporations into better safeguarding their networks — including producing a potential laundry list of what that should include, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). Companies need to embrace the idea of “corporate cyber responsibility,” CISA chief of staff KIERSTEN TODT told Maggie in an interview. “The innovation of the car was a great asset, and with that though came this responsibility to take care of the car, to make sure it was safe and secure,” Todt said. “Similarly, cyber represents technology, represents innovation that every company benefits from.”
| | | A MERGER TO BE?: L3Harris Technologies CEO CHRIS KUBASIK remains confident that his company will merge with Aerojet Rocketdyne by the end of the year, report our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). The Federal Trade Commission continues to review how the $4.7 billion deal could affect defense programs, namely the company’s role in the missiles, space propulsion and hypersonic weapons sectors. In a Friday quarterly earnings call, Kubasik called the hypersonic market the “crown jewel” of the whole merger. On Thursday, Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) wrote a letter to the FTC urging the group to oppose the L3Harris and Aerojet deal. Warren disputed the claim that Aerojet could not “thrive over the long run” without being bought. She blamed management issues at the rocket maker for its lack of profit. Analysts tell Morning Defense that this merger is more certain to go through because L3Harris isn’t a prime — that is, one of the major defense contractors — far different from the time Lockheed Martin tried to buy Aerojet Rocketdyne.
| | | TIKTOK ON THE HILL:TikTok’s chief is planning to appear in front of the House Energy and Commerce Committee on March 23, the Wall Street Journal’s JOHN McKINNON reports. SHOU ZI CHEW plans to testify alone in front of the Republican-led panel to defend his social media company against calls for a national ban by some lawmakers. The main concern is that the Chinese company is scooping up American data and handing it over to the country’s ruling Communist Party. “TikTok has knowingly allowed the ability for the Chinese Communist Party to access American user data,” committee Chair Rep. CATHY McMORRIS RODGERS (R-Wash.) said in a statement. “Americans deserve to know how these actions impact their privacy and data security, as well as what actions TikTok is taking to keep our kids safe from online and offline harms.” TikTok has already presented a proposal to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to address any national security concerns.
| | | |   | | | | | | DEATH THREAT:Former British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON said Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN once threatened to kill him in a missile strike. Happy Monday to us all. Appearing in a BBC documentary airing Monday, Johnson said that Putin made the threat during a long February phone call ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “He sort of threatened me at one point and said, ‘Boris, I don’t want to hurt you, but with a missile, it would only take a minute,’ or something like that,” the past premier recalled. “From the relaxed tone that he was taking, the sort of air of detachment that he seemed to have, he was just playing along with my attempts to get him to negotiate,” The Kremlin has quickly countered Johnson’s retelling of the phone call. “It’s a lie, there were no threats of missiles,” spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters. “If this passage was perceived in this way, it is very embarrassing.” POMPEO DOESN’T THINK HE HAS CLASSIFIED DOCS: MIKE POMPEO, the former secretary of state and CIA director, told the Dispatch Monday he has done a home sweep for any classified documents –– and believes he has none. “I’ve looked. I don’t think I have any classified documents,” he said. The likely 2024 hopeful then took aim at three political opponents –– President JOE BIDEN, DONALD TRUMP and MIKE PENCE –– for having classified documents in their personal possession. “What we were finding is these folks were just careless with these documents,” Pompeo said. “And my interest is this: This isn’t partisan. This is not even political. Every one of us who handles classified information has a responsibility to do everything they can to make sure it stays exactly where it’s supposed to.” Speaking about Biden’s comment that he doesn’t regret having such documents in his garage, Pompeo said “if somebody found a document that wasn’t where it was supposed to be and it was my fault, I would regret that. I might have put somebody’s life at risk, for goodness’ sake.”
| | | — PURVI P. PATEL has been awarded a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship in India focused on the cross between climate change-related migration and conflict-related displacement in India. She currently is the livelihoods and economic inclusion officer with UNHCR in Lima, Peru. — Huntington Ingalls Industries has tapped ERIC CHEWNING, who previously served as the chief of staff to the defense secretary, as a senior executive for strategy and development. — The Center for a New American Security announced its Next Gen Class of 2023.
| | | — LILI BAYER, POLITICO: NATO’s new secretary-general, same as the old one? — MICHAEL McFAUL, Foreign Affairs: How to Get a Breakthrough in Ukraine — NATHALIE TOCCI, Texas National Security Review: The Paradox of Europe’s Defense Moment
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 a.m.: Assessing the Future Trajectory of China-Japan Relations — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 11 a.m.: A Tale of Two Winters: How Winter is Shaping the War in Ukraine —The Hudson Institute, 12:30 p.m.: Moving Beyond Tragedy; Bucha's Mayor and Deputy Mayor Look to the Future Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wishes she could have autonomous newsletter writers. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who puts all machines to shame.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
