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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
“There has been no serious, high-level discussion about F-16s,” a U.S. official told NatSec Daily on Monday. | Lithuanian Ministry of National Defense via AP | With help from Nahal Toosi, Cristina Gallardo, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Just as President JOE BIDEN wanted, the trans-Atlantic alliance is united — this time moving in lockstep to reject Ukraine’s request for fighter jets. German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ on Sunday rejected Kyiv’s calls for the West to supply it with advanced warplanes. Biden followed suit on Monday, simply responding “no” to a reporter’s question on possible F-16 transfers — though it was unclear if he meant “never” or “not right now.” He said Tuesday that he was “going to talk” to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY about it. Today, Downing Street in Britain said it was “not practical” to give Ukraine Typhoons or F-35s at this point in the war. Of course, Ukraine isn’t asking for those planes — they want the less-advanced F-16s or their equivalents. Publicly, the U.S. and its European allies haven’t said they’ll never send fighter jets or any other weapons system. French President EMMANUEL MACRON reiterated that point Monday: “By definition, nothing is excluded,” he said during a press conference in the Netherlands, noting that an official Ukrainian request has yet to reach Paris. And Poland, per Ukraine, is open to the idea of sending its warplanes — though only in coordination with NATO. There’s also talk about authorizing third countries to send their warplanes to Ukraine, such as giving the Netherlands permission to send their F-16s as they await the F-35s they ordered. But in private, the momentum right now is only swinging one way, and that way is not giving Western-made fighter jets to Ukraine. F-16s didn’t come up once during a Ukraine-focused classified Defense Department briefing with HASC last Thursday, per one of the attendees who spoke to NatSec Daily on the condition of anonymity to relay a sensitive discussion. “They’re not a priority for the administration. It’s still an open question on how much of a value-add F-16s would be for Ukraine,” this person said. One key reason is that the West just agreed to send main battle tanks to Ukraine. The MO has been to provide one big-ticket item and then wait and see what impact it has on the battlefield. If realities in the war change — say, Russia gains control of the skies over Ukraine — then the U.S. et al may change their minds on the fighter jets. But there’s currently no impetus pushing the administration to provide aircraft. “There has been no serious, high-level discussion about F-16s,” a U.S. official told NatSec Daily on Monday. NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY refused to comment when we asked during a Tuesday news conference if the president’s remark came after an internal policy review.
| | | ADD IT TO THE LIST: The U.S military is set to secure expanded access to bases in the Philippines in its latest preparation for potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific region, The Washington Post’s ELLEN NAKASHIMA and REBECCA TAN report, citing U.S. and Philippine officials. It would involve access to Philippine military bases, likely including two on Luzon, a northern island U.S. forces use as a strategic position in the case of conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea. Negotiations are ongoing, but it’s expected to be announced as soon as this week when Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN heads to Manila. In recent weeks, the U.S. military has vowed to increase its presence in the Pacific as officials expect tensions with China to boil over in the next few years. That includes an upgraded Marine unit with the ability to fire anti-ship missiles in Okinawa, a new base on Guam and a hefty aid package to the Marshall Islands. DEFENDING BAKHMUT:Ukrainian forces repelled Russian forces from multiple sides around Bakhmut, killing as many as 850 soldiers during the previous 24 hours, The Wall Street Journal's MATTHEW LUXMOORE reports. Russia has made incremental gains after engaging in offensive operations in recent weeks and have been aided by their manpower advantage and desire to continue retaking more territory before Western tanks arrive on the battlefield. “I can’t say the Russians are using a new tactic or strategy,” IVAN TYMOCHKO, a Ukrainian military official said Monday. “They have a number of trained mobilized [soldiers] they can deploy. But they understand that in the case of losses we can break through their defenses over their backs and go on a massive counteroffensive.” Fierce battles against Russian forces are once again forcing Ukraine to request additional Western support in the form of fighter jets. However, divides between the U.S. and its allies on whether to supply additional capabilities could shape the Kyiv’s progress on the battlefield in the coming months. MORE DETERRENCE:The U.S. is set to expand its military drills with South Korea to deter North Korea from any more aggressive moves, SecDef Austin announced Tuesday during a three-day visit to Seoul. “Austin said that more U.S. jet fighters would be deployed to South Korea this year and the two countries would hold larger-scale and longer joint military exercises than their previous ones,” the Wall Street Journal’s DASL YOON reports. The decision comes as South Korea has sought more action from the U.S.-ROK alliance to thwart North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Pyongyang launched a record number of missiles last year and fear remains that it will conduct a seventh nuclear test at any moment. South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL has repeatedly floated the idea of developing a nuclear weapon as a deterrent measure against the north. The U.S. surely hopes more military exercises will suffice for now. IT’S TUESDAY:Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT’s boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | RUSSIA NOT IN COMPLIANCE:Russia is not in compliance with the New START nuclear accord, according to a State Department report sent to Congress and reported on by the Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON. The treaty, which caps the number of long-range nuclear arms the U.S. and Russia can actively have, allows both sides to conduct on-site inspections of the weapons and address compliance issues with one another. But Moscow has denied America access to such sites and isn’t sitting down for requisite meetings, including pulling out of a scheduled November sitdown in Egypt without rescheduling the chat. “There is a clear path to re-compliance here, and we continue to strongly value the treaty,” a senior State Department official told WSJ. “Both of these instances of noncompliance are easily remedied.” Republican lawmakers are furious with the news. “Russia’s violations cannot go unchallenged. Allowing Moscow to pick and choose when and how it complies with treaty rules – especially while the United States adheres to these same rules without fail – is intolerable and unsustainable,” Sens. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.) alongside Reps. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) and DOUG LAMBORN (R-Colo.) said in a statement. UNPLEASANT PRESENCE: Analysts and officials worry that Turkey’s ongoing intervention along the border of Iraqi Kurdistan could further destabilize the region, Reuters’ AMINA ISMAIL reports. In the past two years, Turkey’s military has set up dozens of outposts on Iraqi soil in its longstanding offensive against Kurdish militants. Kurdish officials believe Turkey could become further embroiled if its bases come under attack, while its increased presence in the region could also cause Iran to expand its military action in Iraq. Turkey had 29 outposts in Iraq in 2019, but that number has jumped to about 80 as Ankara attempts to stop the Kurdistan Workers' Party from launching attacks on its territory, Kurdish officials said.
| | | BLOCKING TECH SALES: The Biden administration is mulling cutting off Chinese tech firm Huawei from U..S.-based suppliers due to national security concerns, the Wall Street Journal's IAN TALLEY and SABRINA SIDDIQUI report. The move would involve tightening export controls and would be the latest example of the U.S. pursuing efforts to limit tech transfers following the Trump administration's decision to add Huawei to the Department of Commerce's list of national security threats. U.S. government officials have already alerted Intel and Qualcomm to begin limiting their sales to the Chinese tech firm, which has been unable to produce 5G-enabled devices due to lacking advanced chips from American firms. Chinese officials have criticized the potential move for violating international trade rules and dampening international confidence in the U.S. business environment.
| | | FLYING HIGH: DARPA and the Air Force this month completed the fourth and final test of the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept, our friends over at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. Lockheed Martin’s version of the missile featuring Aerojet Rocketdyne’s scramjet engine flew faster than Mach 5, higher than 60,000 feet and farther than 300 nautical miles. A separate successful HAWC test was conducted by a Raytheon Technologies-Northrop Grumman team in July. Although the HAWC flight test program is over, DARPA plans to continue the effort via the MoHAWC project by manufacturing and flying more vehicles that build upon technological advancements.
| | | ABDULLAH IN THE HOUSE: House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY met with Jordan’s King ABDULLAH II at the Capitol today, per a Jordanian official. Abdullah is the first foreign leader to meet with the California Republican during his speakership, the Hill’s MYCHAEL SCHNELL reports. The monarch — a regular visitor to Washington — also will meet with Biden, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, among others, a Jordanian official confirmed to our own NAHAL TOOSI. He’s due to speak to the National Prayer Breakfast, said the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record. Abdullah’s visit comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU met with the king to discuss the conflict. Abdullah will also meet with some congressional Democrats Wednesday, including Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East panel, a Hill aide confirmed. THE OTHER F-16 NEGOTIATION: The U.S. won’t give F-16s to Turkey unless Ankara agrees to welcome Sweden and Finland into NATO, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) said Tuesday. “There are going to be no F-16s going to Turkey if Turkey does not admit Sweden and Finland," he said during an event hosted by Al-Monitor. "There may be other issues, but that is a certainty." Turkey, one of the two NATO allies to still not approve of Sweden and Finland’s accession, contends that the F-16 sale and the alliance issue are wholly separate. But Van Hollen, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is explicitly linking the two issues. Lawmakers can block the sale, and Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), who chairs the SFRC, has vowed to continue to do so until Turkey ceases its aggressive actions in its region. Van Hollen is now the latest senator who seems ready to halt the transfer.
| | | |   | | | | | | MORE AMERICANS SAY TOO MUCH AID: The share of Americans who believe the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine jumped another 6 percentage points since the fall, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center. That number rose from 20 percent to 26 percent of Americans since September. It’s mostly attributable to a growing number of Republicans who oppose the amount of aid going to Ukraine, researchers wrote. Forty percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents hold that view, up from 32 percent in the fall. Still, the majority of Americans believe the U.S. is giving the right amount (31 percent) or should be giving more aid (20 percent) to Ukraine, per the report.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ALAN FARRELLY is the new press counselor for the Irish Embassy in Washington. He most recently was the political counselor for the embassy. CATHAL McMORROW is now the foreign policy counselor for the Irish Embassy. He most recently was the press counselor for the embassy. — Ret. Gen. JOHN HYTEN, the former vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has joined Pallas Advisors as a senior principal. — STEPHEN O’BRYAN, a former Boston Consulting Group executive, will join Northrop Grumman as corporate vice president and global business development officer, effective Feb. 6. — NEIL JENKINS is now a visiting fellow at George Mason’s National Security Institute. He is currently the Cyber Threat Alliance’s chief analytic officer. — JOSHUA MESERVEY, a research fellow for Africa, is leaving the Heritage Foundation. We were unable to find out what his next move will be.
| | | — Transparency International: 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index — COLIN CLARKE, The New York Times: Russian Mercenaries Are Destabilizing Africa — JAMES ROBBINS, 1945: How The F-16 Fighter Could Transform The Ukraine War
| | | — The Middle East Institute, 1 p.m.: MEI Defense Leadership Series: Episode 19 with Defense Security Cooperation University President CELESTE WARD GVENTER — Washington Post Live, 1 p.m.: ROBERT M. GATES on Ukraine, China and the international order — The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: Putin’s War or Russia’s War — Special Operations Association of America, 5 p.m.: 118th Congress Kickoff with the Special Operations Community Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never sends us the materials we need to do our job. We also thank our producer, Mallory Culhane, who gives us her all every day.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America’s next strategic tanker.
The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force’s increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT’s discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
