|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
A sky-high Chinese balloon was found floating above northwest Montana, home of one of America’s three nuclear missile silos, at Malmstrom Air Force Base. | Andy Wong/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Today has been a wild ride, so let’s unpack what sparked this ballooning U.S.-China crisis. A sky-high Chinese balloon was found floating above northwest Montana, home of one of America’s three nuclear missile silos, at Malmstrom Air Force Base. Shooting it down with F-22 fighter jets was an option, but senior Defense Department officials — including Gen. MARK MILLEY, the Joint Chiefs chair, and Gen. GLEN VANHERCK, the head of U.S. Northern Command — worried that destroying a large aircraft would pose a civilian risk to anyone within a 20 mile by 20 mile area. “The last thing we wanted was for something the size of a school bus to go through the roof of a preschool,” a U.S. defense official told NatSec Daily. The official, along with others cited here, was not authorized to speak publicly. A congressional aide, who listened in on a Friday Pentagon briefing, said the balloon entered Alaskan airspace on Jan. 28, left it on the 30th and then reentered U.S. airspace on the 31st in northern Idaho. As of 1:15 p.m., per Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.), the balloon was above northeast Kansas. The administration is still unsure what China, whose officials claimed the device was a “civilian airship,” meant to achieve. A second U.S. defense official said there’s still no clear intelligence assessment about Beijing’s goals, though this person hoped that information could come in as soon as Friday evening. Experts suspect the balloon isn’t used for weather research, as Beijing claims. It’s more likely that it’s on the hunt for U.S. communications systems and radars. And while China has many advanced satellites, balloons are more maneuverable, their location less predictable and can hover when needed. The balloon burst Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s much-anticipated visit to Beijing on Sunday, which has been indefinitely postponed. “This issue would have narrowed the agenda in a way that would have been unhelpful and unconstructive,” a senior State Department official said in a Friday briefing. Another is that President JOE BIDEN is fielding congressional heat, including from his own party. “We are still waiting for real answers on how this happened and what steps the administration took to protect our country, and I will hold everyone accountable until I get them,” Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), who chairs the chamber’s panel that controls the Pentagon budget, said in a statement. He and his colleague Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) demanded a classified briefing when they return to Washington. The balloon hasn’t dropped. It’s still traveling 60,000 feet in the air over the center of the continental United States moving eastward, Brig Gen. PATRICK RYDER, the chief Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters Friday afternoon. Events like this have happened in recent years. Last February, for example, F-22s were scrambled to check on a balloon off the coast of Hawaii. And Spanish-language press reports a similar balloon appeared over Costa Rica on Thursday, though the suspicion is that that one is for weather-tracking purposes — even if it didn’t have permission to be in the air.
| | | NEW UKRAINE AID:The U.S. just announced small-diameter bombs will feature as part of the new $2.2 billion security assistance package for Ukraine. The weapon, the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, is made up of a precision-guided 250-pound bomb strapped to a rocket motor and fired from a ground launcher. It’s normally launched from the air and the ground-launched version does not yet exist in U.S. military inventory. It could take up to nine months for U.S. defense contractors to do the necessary retrofits. DoD spokesperson Ryder called the weapons the most notable part of the package. “This gives them a longer range capability, long-range firing capability that will enable them to conduct operations in defense of their country, and to take back their sovereign territory in Russian occupied areas,” Ryder said. The whole package includes $425 million coming from a Presidential Drawdown and $1.75 billion taken from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY thanked Biden for the assistance. “The more long-range our weapons are and the more mobile our troops are the sooner Russia's brutal aggression will end,” he wrote in a tweet. RUSSIA STRENGTHENS POSITIONS:Russia is entrenching itself deeper in places like Bakhmut ahead of a long-suspected offensive on Feb. 24, the one-year anniversary of the war, the Wall Street Journal’s LAURENCE NORMAN and ISABEL COLES report. More than half of the 300,00 Russians mobilized in September will form part of the offensive, Ukrainian national security adviser OLEKSII REZNIKOV said earlier this week. “The primary objective is likely to be the eastern Donetsk region and the wider Donbas industrial area of which it is part,” per the WSJ. Some analysts say it’s unclear if Russia has the fire- and manpower to retake all that territory, noting Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN may have overestimated his force’s strength once again. Moscow’s latest gains, after all, were mostly because of the Russian paramilitary outfit Wagner Group — not state-sanctioned troops. NOT GOING AS PLANNED:Russian efforts to limit energy exports to Europe aren’t going as well as expected, The Guardian reports. Earlier this week, gas prices dipped to pre-war levels, proof that Europe is effectively evading Moscow’s efforts to punish them for economic sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. Although Europe has historically relied on Russian gas, countries have increased imports of liquefied natural gas to help avert a potential crisis. The war has also led countries to further expand renewable energy sources. Wind and solar energy generated more electricity on the continent than gas for the first time ever in 2022. If Europe continues to be energy resilient, they could have greater leverage in future sanctions after initially fearing retaliation from Moscow. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY:At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), who spoke to us Thursday about the testy U.S.-Turkey relationship. When he’s not worrying about the conduct of a particular NATO ally, the lawmaker told us he relaxes with any kind of whiskey, but particularly Old Line whiskey from Baltimore. When he can, Van Hollen likes to enjoy that spirit at Dish and Dram in Kensington, Md. Cheers, senator! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND:Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | EU PREPS NEW SANCTIONS: Top European officials met with Ukrainian leaders in a show of support and solidified plans for a new round of sanctions against Russia on Feb. 24, the Associated Press’ SUSIE BLANN reports. The new measures will target Russia’s technology sector, with a special focus on its ability to manufacture drones with help from Iran. The exact language of the sanctions still must be agreed upon by the EU’s 27 members before being implemented. The visit comes as Russia has made incremental gains in parts of eastern Ukraine, prompting Kyiv to ask for additional military support, including F-16 fighter jets.
| | | HACK-AND-LEAK:Microsoft believes Iran’s state-backed cyber unit was responsible for a data theft operation after French cartoonist CHARLIE HEBDO after it announced a competition to producer caricatures the regime’s clerical rule, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The tech firm’s Digital Threat Analysis Center confirmed that a group known as “Emennet Pasargad” was responsible for a January cyberattack that obtained and putting the personal information of more than 200,000 of Hebdo’s readers up for sale. The group has been monitored by U.S. agencies for some time and two Iranian individuals who worked for the hacking group were indicted by the Justice Department in 2021 for attempting to to influence the 2020 presidential election.
| | | CRITICAL PROBLEM:The U.S. has a shortage of processing plants for critical minerals which risks hampering the Pentagon’s ability to procure the materials it needs to produce advanced weapons, our friends in Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) has tapped the Arizona Defense and Industry Coalition to lead the effort to expand the country’s mineral processing capabilities. Her home state and Utah are uniquely positioned to lead as a processing hub as they have the only two remaining copper smelters in the U.S. China’s dominance in critical minerals during the last 30 years means that some companies need to ship metals for processing, which can be costly. The minerals are essential for producing military aircraft and smart bombs. MILITARY CONTRACTORS TO UKRAINE:Retired Army officer ALEXANDER VINDMAN is leading a new effort to send Western contractors to Ukraine to help sustain the country’s war effort, our own PAUL MCLEARY reports. Vindman, who was born in Ukraine, played a key role in former President DONALD TRUMP’s impeachment hearings by testifying about Trump’s infamous phone call with Zelenskyy. Vindman’s group currently has enough funding to begin the project in March and has support from at least one company. While there are some contractors working on systems donated by their countries, there aren’t enough to replicate the effort the U.S. operated in Iraq and Afghanistan.
| | | |   | | | | | | NEW LINEUP:Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the new House Foreign Affairs Committee chair, announced his leadership team for the new GOP-led panel: Rep. ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.) will serve as the committee’s vice chair. Rep. JOHN JAMES (R-Mich.) will lead the Africa committee while Rep. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) will chair the Middle East, North African and Central Asia subcommittee. Rep. YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) will serve as the Indo-Pacific subcommittee chair, while Rep. TOM KEAN, JR. (R-N.J.) will lead the Europe subcommittee. Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) will chair the Oversight and Accountability subcommittee and Rep. CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH (R-N.J.) will lead the Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations subcommittee. And last but not least, Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) will chair the Western Hemisphere subcommittee.
| | | CURB RUSSIAN TRADE:U.S. officials have informed Turkey and the United Arab Emirates their economic ties to Russia are hurting efforts to hold Russia accountable for its war in Ukraine, Bloomberg’s BERIL AKMAN and BEN BARTENSTEIN report. BRIAN NELSON, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, is the third senior official to visit Turkey this year and more are expected in the future. Turkish exporters sent $800 million worth of goods to Russia between March and October last year. The UAE has informed the U.S. that it is committed to working on policies to help prevent Moscow from evading sanctions amid concerns from Washington that businesses within the country may have helped transfer Iranian drones being used in the conflict.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: CONNOLLY KEIGHER is now senior adviser for strategic engagement in the director’s office of the Peace Corps, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was director of presidential advance at the White House and a special assistant to the president. — Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) says she won’t seek reelection after her term is up in 2024. — VARUN SIVARAM has joined the energy company Ørsted as group senior vice president for strategy and innovation. He was last a senior adviser to JOHN KERRY, the U.S. presidential envoy for climate change. — ANNIE KOWALEWSKI has joined the House Foreign Affairs Committee as a professional staff member. She was last in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as a senior policy analyst on the Indo-Pacific.
| | | — ANKIT PANDA, War on the Rocks: Seoul’s Nuclear Temptations And The U.S.-South Korean Alliance — LILY KUO, The Washington Post: What China had wanted out of Blinken’s now postponed visit — LEONIE KIJEWSKI, POLITICO: On The Hunt for Vladimir Putin's Ex-Wife and Her Ironman Husband
| | | — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: US-Romania spotlight: How trans-Atlantic cooperation can advance energy security and decarbonization in the Black Sea region — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Press Briefing: Previewing President Biden’s Meeting with President Lula of Brazil — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Israel’s Old and New National Security Challenges: A Conversation with Dr. EYAL HULATA — The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 4:30 p.m.:U.S. Foreign Policy and the Muslim World with Ambassador EDWARD P. DJEREJIAN — The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 5:30 p.m.: The geopolitical and technical changes reshaping cyber risk Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose patience balloon is ready to pop. We also thank our producer, Mallory Culhane, who is the balloon drop of every party.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
