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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | | 
At this very early stage, Nikki Haley is polling only at 3 percent among Republican voters, with Donald Trump the heavy favorite at 48 percent. | Theo Wargo/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt NIKKI HALEY, come on down! The former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is poised to throw her hat into the 2024 presidential race, becoming just the second Republican to vie for the party’s nomination. The other official GOP hopeful, of course, is Haley’s former boss DONALD TRUMP, whom she managed deftly during and in the runup to her announcement to pave the path to her candidacy. At this very early stage, Haley is polling only at 3 percent among Republican voters, with Trump the heavy favorite at 48 percent. But the war in Ukraine, omnipresent tensions with China and the candidate pool might — just might — elevate national security issues throughout the campaign, making Haley a more central figure than her current polling suggests. “Haley has demonstrated a Reagan ‘peace through strength’ foreign policy throughout her career with support for a strong national defense, close ties with democratic allies and a clear-eyed view of adversaries like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea,” said RICHARD GOLDBERG, who served on Trump’s National Security Council and had Haley write a foreword to his edited volume about reforming international organizations. Much of the praise from conservative circles emanates from Haley's 2017-2019 stint at the U.N. She spoke critically of Russia when then-President Trump didn’t, called Syrian President BASHAR ASSAD a “war criminal,” was visibly moved by her visits to refugee camps in African nations, pushed through historic sanctions on North Korea, and used her perch to counter Iran while offering full-throated support for Israel. Haley skeptics say that her U.N. stint was choreographed solely for this moment: to burnish her resume for a presidential run. She did little to assuage allies who felt alienated by Trump’s brash, with-me-or-against-me style. And there were times when her activism on human rights felt performative, they assert, noting that the U.S. withdrew from the U.N.’s Human Rights Council and ended funding for the organization’s agency for Palestinian refugees on her watch. In both cases, Haley spearheaded those moves as a way to support Israel, she has said. Writing in June 2021 on the Palestinian refugee agency, she contended, “that agency does more to foster hatred toward Israel than it does to support actual Palestinian refugees.” On the Human Rights Council: “Friends do not sit still while their friends get attacked, so we walked away.” As ambassador, she made no secret that the U.S. would tie financial aid to support for American policies. “We will remember it when we are called upon to once again make the world’s largest contribution to the United Nations,” she told the General Assembly in 2017, criticizing the body after multiple nations bashed Trump’s decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. “And we will remember it when so many countries come calling on us, as they so often do, to pay even more and to use our influence for their benefit.” To emphasize her point, the envoy threw a party for countries that supported the mission’s relocation. Haley surely hopes her two-year natsec track record will help her keep pace in a field that will likely include a former president, a former vice president and a former secretary of state/CIA director. Punches have already been thrown. In his new book, MIKE POMPEO claimed that Haley schemed to replace MIKE PENCE as vice president, a charge Haley strongly denied. To help her withstand the turmoil, Haley is expected to lean on JON LERNER, her longtime domestic politics aide who served as her deputy, for national security and political advice, per three people familiar with his role. That said, there is still no official campaign — that’s expected to start on Feb. 15 — so her team will likely grow when and if her official announcement comes. Haley’s team didn’t respond on record to requests for comment.
| | | U.S. ROCKETS TO UKRAINE: An expected $2 billion in U.S. military aid to Ukraine will include longer-range rockets for the first time, Reuters’ MIKE STONE reports. It’ll include the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb, which has a range of 94 miles, two U.S. officials briefed on the package told Reuters. It has been reported that the bombs — which could help Ukraine hit previously out-of-reach targets in its counteroffensive — would be in previous packages, but it never made the cut. Support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision-guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons will also be included in the package, the officials said. MISSILE DEFENSES TO KYIV: Italy and France are set to join up to send Ukraine a state-of-the-art missile defense system, the Financial Times’ AMY KAZMIN, GIULIANA RICOZZI and LEILA ABBOUD report Italian defense minister GUIDO CROSETTO told FT that an upcoming military aid package is “probably” going to include “weapons of defense against Russian missile attack.” Ukraine has asked the countries to provide their SAMP-T missile defense system to protect against Russia’s aerial attacks. Italy is expected to provide the missile launchers, while France provides the rockets. Things are looking up for Kyiv’s missile defense these days. The partnership comes weeks after the United States and Germany pledged to each send a Patriot missile defense system to Kyiv, and the Netherlands vowed to provide part of a Patriot system. MOSCOW’S NEW PUSH: Ukrainian officials believe Russia’s growing military force in the Luhansk region is a preparation for a new offensive in the coming weeks, the Associated Press’ SUSIE BLANN reports. Russian troops are being deployed to the region and forcing some residents near the frontline out of their homes, Ukrainian officials said. Moscow is also honing in on the neighboring Donetsk province in its efforts to take Bakhmut, a key city that’s been contested for months in a bloody battle. “Russia could try something big to mark the one-year anniversary of the invasion,” ANDRIJ MELNYK, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, told our own HANS VON DER BURCHARD and MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG in Global Insider, adding that he’s also worried about a new offensive from Belarus. “I don’t think the Russians are going to give up.” Scroll down to Broadsides for more on that interview with Melnyk. NEW RUSSIAN SANCTIONS: The Treasury announced sanctions today against 22 people it says have helped Russia obtain weapons and evade sanctions imposed on the Kremlin and its allies in the last year, our own KELLY GARRITY reports. The sanctions target the network’s leader, Russian arms dealer IGOR ZIMENKOV, as well as his son and several members of their network, for supplying Russia with “high-technology devices,” Treasury officials said. They’ve “been involved in multiple deals for Russian cybersecurity and helicopter sales” and maintain close relationships with the Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport. KNOCK, KNOCK: Federal investigators searched President JOE BIDEN’s vacation home in Rehoboth, Del., as part of their ongoing probe into his handling of classified documents, our own CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO reports. NEW MISSION: The State Department announced the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Honiara in the Solomon Islands, less than a year after the announcement of its creation. It comes as the U.S. aims to counter China, which has sought to build closer ties to the strategically placed nation. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | MOTHER OF PEARL: French special forces seized a trove of Iranian-supplied weapons and ammo on its way to militants in Yemen last month, The Wall Street Journal’s DION NISSENBAUM reports. On Jan. 15, a French warship stopped a suspected smuggling ship off the Yemeni coast, officials familiar with the operation told WSJ. More than 3,000 assault rifles, half a million rounds of ammunition and 20 anti-tank guided missiles were found on board. The seizure, which was coordinated with the U.S. military, comes as France ramps up its efforts to counter Tehran and weapons smuggling in the Middle East. It also was part of an international effort to enforce the United Nations’ embargo on arms going to the Houthis in Yemen. TAIPEI ON ALERT: Taiwan gathered its fighter jets and activated missile systems yesterday after dozens of Chinese military aircraft and nine warships were deployed near the island nation. Thirty-four Chinese aircraft were deployed, with 20 crossing the central line in the Taiwan Strait that’s recognized as an unofficial buffer zone between the adversaries, the Associated Press reports. China has taken a number of similar actions toward Taiwan in recent months, increasing worries about conflict breaking out in the region.
| | | SEMI SLOW: As countries around the world prepare for that conflict, the U.K. is falling behind in its efforts to secure crucial semiconductor supply chains, our own GRAHAM LANKTREE and ANNABELLE DICKSON report. For the past two years, Britain’s government has been readying a plan to diversify supply chains for key components and boost domestic production. But people close to the strategy say the U.K.’s still-unseen plan — which missed its publication deadline last fall — has been stymied by a lack of experience and joined-up policy-making among legislators, a period of intense political upheaval and new U.S. controls on the export of advanced chips to China.
| | | $1 PLUS SHIPPING: General Atomics is offering to sell Ukraine two Reaper MQ-9 drones for a dollar to help the country defend itself from future Russian offensives, The Wall Street Journal’s GORDON LUBOLD and NANCY YOUSSEF report, citing a letter outlining the proposal. Like always, it’s the shipping that gets you. The deal would require Kyiv to spend upwards of $10 million to prepare and ship the drones to Ukraine. Maintenance and sustainment of the older drones would cost Kyiv another $8 million a year. But wait, there’s more! The proposal, made by General Atomics CEO LINDEN BLUE, would also include a ground control station to operate the drones from. While the company wouldn’t talk about the deal’s details, a spokesperson told WSJ that “we do believe Ukraine needs a capability like the Reaper, and soon.”
| | | OMAR OUSTER: House Republicans could remove Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) from her post on the House Foreign Affairs Committee over her comments criticizing Israel as soon as today. Omar is part of a trio of Democratic lawmakers Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY wants ousted from premier panels, but Omar’s case is particularly revanchist, Democrats claim. “This is about vengeance. This is about spite. This is about politics,” said Rep. JAMES MCGOVERN (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Rules Committee. Omar takes her work on HFAC personally, given her background as a Black Muslim woman whose family had fled the Somali Civil War. “After bearing firsthand witness to the impact of the Cold War on U.S. policy in Africa, she said, she even campaigned on wanting to be on the panel — making her one of the few lawmakers to do so besides a former chair, ELIOT ENGEL,” our own NICHOLAS WU reports. “I would love for this to be an actual debate. But it’s a smear, it is an attack, and to me in many ways it feels like it’s McCarthyism that’s being carried out by the new McCarthy,” Omar told him. A vote on Omar’s removal is expected Wednesday, though final passage might not happen until Thursday. The situation, however, remains fluid. APPOINTMENTS: Reps. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) and RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) were assigned to the new House Select Committee on China and Rep. AMI BERA (D-Calif.) will serve on the House Intelligence Committee.
| | | TANK DEAL WAS ‘A DIFFICULT BIRTH’: There’s nothing like knocking back a few beers with your buddies, especially after weeks of trying to convince the West that your country desperately needs tanks for its war effort. “There was relief and happiness that we finally overcame the hurdles of the past months,” Melnyk, Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, told Global Insider. But “it was a difficult birth. We indulged ourselves with a few beers after not really drinking since the war began.” While their efforts paid off, Kyiv quickly pivoted to the next big ticket request: fighter jets. That’s because “without air support, you can’t fight a modern war,” Melnyk said, adding that the planes would be used to liberate territory and launch counter offensives. “We’re not doing this for amusement.” The deputy foreign minister also shed light on a negotiating tactic Kyiv has been using for months, often frustrating those who are hesitant to maintain the steady flow of aid: Ask for more, more, more, even if you know you won’t get it immediately. “It’s worth starting the debate even if you know that you’re not going to achieve your goals tomorrow and you end up being subjected to mockery and ridicule,” said Melnyk, who was Ukraine’s ambassador to Berlin until last year. “In Germany, I learned that it was helpful to take people out of their comfort zone.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ALEXANDRIA PHILLIPS is now director of strategic communications at USAID, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was communications director for Surgeon General VIVEK MURTHY and has also previously worked for Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.), HILLARY CLINTON and the State Department. — DAVID FREDERICK was appointed the National Security Agency’s first assistant deputy director for China, DefenseScoop reports. — HOLLY BAROODY, who was most recently deputy to the commander of the Cyber National Mission Force, has taken on the role of executive director of Cybercom, also per DefenseScoop. — Ret. Adm. WILLIAM LESCHER, former vice chief of naval operations, has joined DEFCON AI as a senior adviser. — MICHAEL CORCORAN is now military legislative assistant for Rep. CARLOS GIMENEZ (R-Fla.). He previously was a HillVets fellow on the For Country Caucus. — LOUIS BONO was named as a senior adviser for Caucasus Negotiations. He’ll be charged with helping the U.S. broker a deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh. — MOHAMMED SOLIMAN is now the director of the Middle East Institute’s Strategic Technologies and Cybersecurity program.
| | | — JONATHAN PANIKOFF, POLITICO: We Already Have 18 Intelligence Agencies. We Still Need 1 More. — GLENN GERSTELL, The New York Times: A TikTok Ban Won’t Fix Our Problem — ANDREAS KLUTH, Bloomberg News: Lula Can't Tell Vladimir from Volodymyr
| | | — The National Association for Business Economics, 11 a.m.: A Conversation on Russia: How the War Fractured the Global Order — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: Intelligence and Insider Threats: Exploring and Mitigating Risk — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: One Year On: Germany’s Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine — The RAND Corporation, 3 p.m.: Planning for Climate Resilience in the Department of the Air Force Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wouldn’t even vote for us as “best newsletter writers.” We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who will be president one day.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
