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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman and Matt Berg | |  Oddly enough, all this talk about ending the Middle East missions could be a political boon for President Joe Biden. | Ben McKeown/AP | With help from Connor O’Brien, Erin Banco and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt All of a sudden, there’s a lot of talk about American forces withdrawing from two Middle Eastern countries, coinciding with troops in the region increasingly coming under attack from Iran-backed militants. Formal discussions between Washinton and Baghdad about the future of the 2,500-strong U.S. military mission in Iraq will start in the coming days, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN announced today. Meanwhile, plugged-in Middle East experts have said there are internal discussions about removing the roughly 900 troops from Syria — a claim the administration has denied, as NatSec Daily reported Wednesday. No withdrawal order from President JOE BIDEN is imminent or headed to his desk from what we’ve heard from five U.S. officials, all granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, and the Pentagon maintains Iraq has not asked the U.S. military to leave. What is happening, more generally, are discussions throughout the administration about where in the region forces are most needed. The conversations on Iraq and Syria are related — there’s a free flow of militants across their shared border — but they are for now on separate tracks. On Iraq, Austin confirmed the start of the long-expected U.S.-Iraq Higher Military Commission, which the two nations agreed to back in August. Officials will discuss how the U.S.-led coalition to defeat ISIS will “transition” based on three factors: the terrorist threat, “operational and environmental requirements,” and the abilities of the Iraqi security forces, according to the Pentagon. The point of the HMC was always to discuss what the drawdown and military transition would look like, said one former U.S. official informed about the talks. But the recent tensions in the region, including Israel’s war in Gaza and more than 150 attacks by Iranian-proxy groups in Iraq and Syria, complicate the picture. For now, the Biden administration is being very careful to not say the U.S. is leaving Iraq. As for Syria, three senior administration officials confirmed there are deliberations about withdrawal, though they couched them as part of routine planning discussions about where troops are most useful, how much longer the mission should go on and when, if ever, American forces should leave the country. Officials in multiple corners of the government are looking into the threat ISIS would pose if U.S. soldiers leave Syria as well as the likelihood of more service members getting injured from escalating strikes by Iran-linked groups. It’s similar to the conversations officials had on its Syria posture at the start of the administration. Ever since, reviews of that decision have led to the same conclusion: stay. Two of the senior administration officials and a DOD official said the Pentagon is not considering a withdrawal. Still, the Middle East Institute’s CHARLES LISTER, who wrote a Foreign Policy article revealing the private planning, told NatSec Daily “there's a Syria review and a D-ISIS force posture review ongoing. When they've intersected, they’ve pointed towards the need to begin considering a path towards withdrawing from Syria and integrating that fully into Syria strategy.” “That doesn't happen quickly,” he continued, “so discussions until now have been about how to create conditions that will allow for a withdrawal to avoid the Afghan scenario” — meaning the deadly chaos at Kabul’s airport following Biden’s decision to pull U.S. troops from the 20-year war. Oddly enough, all this talk about ending the Middle East missions could be a political boon for Biden. Former President DONALD TRUMP’s foreign policy message is that he will avoid World War III and end ill-fated missions abroad, an argument that resonates with voters in both parties. Biden could boast about taking the U.S. out of Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria by the time voters go to the polls in November. That all depends, of course, on what happens immediately after troops leave. Another Kabul-like situation could sink the president’s standing.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | PUTIN OPEN TO TALKS?: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has quietly signaled that he’s open to talks to end the war on Ukraine, Bloomberg News reports. “He’s put out feelers to the U.S. via indirect channels to signal he’s open to discussion, including potentially on future security arrangements for Ukraine, according to two people close to the Kremlin,” reads the report, which doesn’t have a byline. The intermediaries carrying Putin’s message said he “may be willing to consider dropping an insistence on neutral status for Ukraine and even ultimately abandon opposition to eventual NATO membership –– the threat of which has been a central Russian justification for the invasion.” U.S. officials have yet to hear this offer and aren’t sure Putin is serious about negotiations anyway, per Bloomberg. “We are unaware of the shifts in Russia’s position described in this article. It will be up to Ukraine to decide whether, when and how to negotiate with Russia,” said National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON. Still, if this is real, and not some trial balloon, it’s the first true sign that Putin is looking to end the fighting –– at least for now. That message could roil an internal debate inside Kyiv and turbocharge the Ukraine portion of the 2024 presidential election in the United States. BURNS AFTER PLEADING: Biden is planning to dispatch CIA Director BILL BURNS to help broker a deal between Israel and Hamas that would see all the hostages released and the longest break in fighting since the war started, officials told The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON and CLAIRE PARKER. In Europe, Burns is expected to meet with Israeli and Egyptian intelligence chiefs, DAVID BARNEA and ABBAS KAMEL, as well as Qatari Prime Minister MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN JASSIM AL THANI, a senior administration official confirmed to POLITICO. Egypt and Qatar have been key mediators in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, but tensions between Qatar and Israel were heightened following leaked comments by Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU criticizing the Hamas-hosting nation over its role in hostage negotiations. “Qatar in my opinion is no different, in essence, from the U.N. It is no different, in essence, from the Red Cross, and in some ways it is even more problematic,” Netanyahu said in remarks broadcasted on Israel’s Channel 12 on Tuesday. MAJED AL-ANSARI, a spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, blasted that statement on X, saying Netanyahu appeared to be prioritizing his political interests over the lives of the hostages. The spat comes as Israel floated a two-month cease-fire to allow all 130 hostages held in Gaza to return home. Burns’ discussions are expected to build on phone calls he has had with counterparts and the work of BRETT MCGURK, the White House’s top Middle East official, who held conversations in Cairo and Doha this week, officials told the Post. ISRAEL’S EXONERATION EFFORT: Israel released dozens of declassified documents to The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY in an attempt to rebut accusations of genocide as it awaits input on the matter from the United Nation’s top court. The 30 documents are part of an effort to show that, despite rhetoric from top Israeli officials that has been described as genocidal against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, executive decisions and orders from Israel’s war cabinet have worked to minimize the deaths of civilians. Netanyahu “stressed time and again the need to increase significantly the humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip,” reads a document that Israel’s lawyers said is from November. “It is recommended to respond favorably to the request of the U.S.A. to enable the entry of fuel,” another document read. In response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israeli soil, Israel’s military operation has leveled much of the Gaza Strip, displacing the majority of the 2.3 million Palestinians living there and killing over 25,000 civilians, according to Gazan health officials. The International Court of Justice began hearing the case, brought by South Africa, earlier this month and is expected to provide an initial response to the testimonies on Friday. PLANE CRASH QUESTIONS: Russia’s flight of a military plane near Ukraine’s border and claim Kyiv shot it down with POWs on board was aimed at “demoralizing Ukrainian society and undermining Ukraine's international reputation,” per a government document circulated in Kyiv. “Regardless of the real circumstances of the incident, the behavior of the Russian side is a clear provocation … and a cynical attempt to reduce Ukraine's defense capability,” according to a document sent to Ukrainian government officials by Kyiv’s Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, obtained by NatSec Daily. On Wednesday night, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY demanded an international investigation into the crash of a large Russian military plane, which Moscow said killed 74 people, including dozens of prisoners of war, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. “All clear facts must be established. To the extent possible, given that the aircraft crashed on Russian territory — beyond our control,” Zelenskyy said. “‘Facts’ is the key word now.” Russian state media reported the crash of an Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft near the Russian border city of Belgorod on Wednesday. According to Moscow, among the casualties included 65 Ukrainian POWs who were being transported to a prisoner exchange. Ukraine was unable to verify that information. Read: Ukraine claims strike on another oil refinery in Russia by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA U.S. WARNED IRAN BEFORE ISIS ATTACK: The U.S. quietly warned Iran that an ISIS affiliate planned a terror attack against it –– but Tehran failed to stop the strike that killed more than 80 Iranians. “Prior to ISIS’s terrorist attack on January 3, 2024, in Kerman, Iran, the U.S. government provided Iran with a private warning that there was a terrorist threat within Iranian borders,” a U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal’s MICHAEL GORDON, VIVIAN SALAMA and WARREN STROBEL. “The U.S. government followed a longstanding ‘duty to warn’ policy that has been implemented across administrations to warn governments against potential lethal threats. We provide these warnings in part because we do not want to see innocent lives lost in terror attacks.” It’s unclear exactly how the U.S. delivered the message –– the nations don’t have direct relations –– or if it was the first time Washington sent a warning like this to Tehran. The ISIS-Khorasan attack in Kerman was the deadliest terror strike in the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | |   | | | | | TRUMP-PROOFING EUROPE: The head of the EU's biggest political grouping is calling for Europeans to prepare for war without support from the United States and to build its own nuclear umbrella as the continent preps for the possible return of DONALD TRUMP. "We want NATO, but we also have to be strong enough to be able to defend ourselves without it or in times of Trump," MANFRED WEBER, leader of the center-right European People's Party, told our own JAKOB HANKE VELA and NICOLAS CAMUT. "Regardless of who is elected in America, Europe must be able to stand on its own in terms of foreign policy and be able to defend itself independently.” That brought him to the vexing question of European nuclear defenses. NATO currently relies heavily on U.S. nuclear warheads, which are deployed on six military air bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. "Europe must build deterrence, we must be able to deter and defend ourselves," Weber said. "We all know that when push comes to shove, the nuclear option is the really decisive one." Read: Europe’s Trump challenge: Is it ready to fight VLADIMIR PUTIN alone? by our own LAURA KAYALI
| | UKRAINE HIT WITH CYBERATTACK: At least three Ukrainian e-services were hit by a cyberattack Thursday, Liga reports. An English-language summary in Euromaidan Press states “those affected were the Shliakh information system allowing the male civil volunteers to cross the border, and the online client services of Naftogaz oil and gas company and the Ukrposhta national postal operator.” Ukraine suffered around 4,000 cyberattacks from January 2022 to September 2023. The former Ukrainian cyber chief VICTOR ZHORA said last year that the country faces around 10 major cyberstrikes per week.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | UFO PROBS: The Defense Department’s effort to identify UFOs is “uncoordinated” and could have overlooked threats to the United States, according to an unclassified version of a report from the Pentagon’s internal watchdog released today, as Matt reports. In the report, originally released last August but containing classified sections, the DOD’s inspector general reviewed the department’s policies and procedures for detecting, reporting and analyzing UFO reports that have flooded the department in recent years. After an investigation, the IG found that the Defense Department doesn’t have a “coordinated approach,” has developed varying processes for collecting and analyzing UFO reports, and has largely excluded regional military commands — which are responsible for detecting and deterring threats against the United States — in developing policies.
| | | ‘OVERREADING’ MCCONNELL: Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) told NatSec Daily everyone is “overreading” reported comments on the Ukraine-and-border bill last night by Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL. Punchbowl News reported McConnell was wary of the politics of the border, noting Trump wants to make immigration the centerpiece of his campaign to bludgeon Biden. Passing a border-security bill, which is tied to more military aid for Kyiv, would deliver the Democratic incumbent a win. “Politics on this have changed,” McConnell reportedly said of Trump’s influence on discussions. “We don’t want to do anything to undermine him.” But that doesn’t mean McConnell, who supports further aiding Ukraine, would block more weapons transfers to Kyiv. “No, God no,” said Graham, a close Trump ally. “He was just talking about the evolution of politics.” “McConnell said during a private party meeting on Thursday that he still supports pursuing a border security deal linked to Ukraine funding, according to two GOP senators who attended,” our own BURGESS EVERETT and JORDAIN CARNEY report. It was always hard to believe McConnell, who has a horrible relationship with Trump, would sink the prospect of more weapons heading to Kyiv over a border fight. And while the politics of the border are complicated — not just for Republicans but also progressives and rank-and-file Democrats — there’s generally bipartisan support for Ukraine’s cause. But Punchbowl’s JAKE SHERMAN and JOHN BRESNAHAN offer one reason why McConnell might bend to Trump: “McConnell…wants to win the Senate back this November, and that can’t happen without Trump if he’s the GOP nominee. McConnell is one of the best vote counters in Senate history, and he clearly saw which way the debate was heading.” MCCONNELL OPPOSES WAR POWERS PUSH: McConnell also came out against a bipartisan war powers push as the Biden administration ramps up military operations against Houthis in the Red Sea and Yemen, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. On the Senate floor, McConnell argued Biden "does not need additional authorities to deal with" threats emanating from the Middle East. Instead, he slammed the president for not acting aggressively enough in a manner that would deter the Houthis and other Iran-backed groups in the region. McConnell's remarks come after Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and MIKE LEE (R-Utah) wrote to the White House on Tuesday seeking an explanation of the legal authority underpinning the strikes and the administration's understanding of self-defense as a justification for military action if the strikes are not deterring Houthi attacks. They warned that Congress hasn't specifically authorized military intervention against the Houthis. And they pressed the administration to develop a strategy that reduces the risks of escalation of the Red Sea crisis. But the GOP leader warned he'll "oppose any effort to tie the hands of our military commanders." "This is no time for 535 commanders-in-chief dictating battlefield tactics from halfway around the world," McConnell said. Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.), meanwhile, said a new authorization isn’t required “at this stage” but cautioned it will be “if there are more expansive strikes.” Read: The timing of the Red Sea attacks could not be worse for Democrats by our own MEREDITH LEE HILL, ARI HAWKINS and ADAM CANCRYN
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | ‘DON'T ESCALATE’ MADE IT WORSE: Worries about escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine caused the country’s military to lose critical time when it could have been effectively fending off invading troops, Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister DMYTRO KULEBA told Foreign Affairs’ DANIEL KURTZ-PHELAN. “In this war, nothing benefited Putin more than the ‘don’t escalate’ concept. This is really something that he should be grateful for, because the ‘don’t escalate’ concept protracted the adoption of many decisions. They were still made, but we lost time, we lost territories, and we lost lives,” Kuleba said. Kyiv had asked its allies for advanced weapons systems, such as tanks and F-16s, since the early days of the war. But world leaders, including Biden, voiced concerns about the deliveries causing fighting to intensify — which Kuleba said never happened, even after receiving the systems.
| | | | — WILSON BALDWIN is now Democratic communications director for the House China Select Committee. He continues as deputy chief of staff and communications director for Rep. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.). — BRAD MOYER, vice president of BAE Systems Ship Repair, is taking over as chair of the board of the Shipbuilders Council of America after serving as vice chair. DAVID CARVER, president of General Dynamics NASSCO, will now serve as vice chair. — Biden has nominated TRACEY ANN JACOBSON to be the next U.S. ambassador to Iraq. She was most recently charge d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Ethiopia.
| | — THOMAS FRIEDMAN, The New York Times: Why Ukraine and Gaza are even bigger than you think — IVO DAALDER, POLITICO: What another Trump presidency would mean for NATO — CLARISSA WARD, The Washington Post: Israel needs to let journalists freely report the news in Gaza
| | — Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: History repeating? an examination of israel's intelligence and policy failures in the October 1973 Yom Kippur War and October 2023 Hamas attack — Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: Are Russia and North Korea forming a new arsenal of autocracy? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we wish would withdraw from her role as editor. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, for whom we would launch a forever war to protect.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
