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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and John Sakellariadis | |  Valery Zaluzhny hasn’t spoken publicly about the sacking speculation, but an official close to him said: “Everything is alright.” | Efrem Lukatsky/AP | With help from Phelim Kine and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Ukraine’s VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has another conundrum in the war against Russia: There’s wide speculation he could sack his top general because the conflict isn’t going well for Kyiv — but doing so could create an unwanted political rival, Matt and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA report. For the time being, VALERY ZALUZHNY is still in his post controlling Ukraine’s military as it fends off Russian forces in what has essentially become a stalemate, where neither side has made much progress since Kyiv’s failed summer counteroffensive. The reason he has so far been spared is that Zelenskyy is cautious about possibly creating a powerful political rival if Zaluzhny were fired, a person in Ukraine’s presidential office and another person familiar with the talks between the two said. The two were granted anonymity as they were not permitted to speak to the press. The media fuss that has erupted appears to be “a controlled leak of information ahead of time,” possibly by Zaluzhny’s team or political actors trying to boost the general’s popularity, the person familiar with the talks said. Although presidential elections have been delayed due to the war, Zaluzhny is something of a folk hero in Ukraine — which could translate into electoral power. “So far, Zaluzhny has not decided to enter politics, but he is considering this option, and the president's office is afraid,” the person familiar with the talks said. “I know for a fact that Zaluzhny is going to be fired, but it was not supposed to happen on Monday and it didn't.” Zaluzhny hasn’t spoken publicly about the sacking speculation, but an official close to him said: “Everything is alright.” However, the person familiar with talks said the general’s position is not secure: “The more Zaluzhny's team is playing politics, the more determined Ukraine's office of the president is to get rid of him.” Zelenskyy is known for changing personnel when progress on the battlefield stalls, and it’s no secret that he and the top general have butt heads before. Zaluzhny has come under fire for his pessimistic assessment of progress in the war, and rumors of the commander’s possible ousting date back to the end of 2022. Simmering tensions between the two top leaders are a sign of the grim situation in Kyiv. Ukraine’s forces aren’t succeeding in pushing back Russian invaders, they are running out of ammunition, and Western financial and military support hangs in the balance both in Washington and in Brussels. That’s making Zaluzhny a target. “Are we winning the war now? Not sure. But it seems the chief commander thinks everything is alright. But others don’t think that way,” the person familiar with the matter said.
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security, connecting assets across domains with advanced capabilities and networking to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn More. | | | | | U.S. PINS THE BLAME: The U.S. accused an umbrella group composed of Iran-backed militias in Iraq of conducting the attack that killed three American troops in Jordan on Sunday, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said today. “We believe that the attack in Jordan was planned, resourced and facilitated by an umbrella group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which contains multiple groups including Kata'ib Hezbollah,” Kirby told reporters. Earlier today, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that Tehran is “not looking for war,” though the group would respond to any American attacks, The New York Times’ SHASHANK BENGALI reports. “We hear threatening words from American officials,” Gen. HOSSEIN SALAMI, the group’s chief commander, said in Iranian state news media. “You have tested us and we know each other — we will not leave any threat unanswered.” His comments come a day after Biden said that he’s decided how the U.S. will retaliate after the Jordan drone strike, but did not detail how the administration plans to respond, or when those actions would be taken. However, it’s expected that a response will come soon and possibly in waves over the days ahead. BLINKEN’S PALESTINE ASK: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN asked the State Department to look at potential policy options for U.S. and international recognition of a Palestinian state once the war in Gaza ends, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports. Speaking with reporters today, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER would neither confirm nor deny the specifics of the Axios report, but did make clear that the department has ongoing policy processes designed to bring about the creation of a Palestinian state even in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. Blinken has also made clear that in the long run, Palestinians must be able to have a state. Following news about the U.K. considering recognizing Palestine at the United Nations, NSC spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON told NatSec Daily that the U.S. believes a two-state solution “is best accomplished through direct negotiations between the parties rather than through unilateral recognition at the U.N.” WEST’S WARNING: After speaking with Chinese officials, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN sternly warned that Beijing will face consequences if it keeps helping Russia rebuild its defense industry. While the U.S. hasn’t “seen the provision of lethal aid … we have seen support from Chinese companies to help Russia reconstitute its different defense industrial base,” Sullivan said while speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event Tuesday night. “We're prepared to take steps to respond to that kind of activity.” The U.S. believes Moscow’s defense industrial base is building up “to continue to support an imperial war of conquest in Europe,” Sullivan said, calling it a fundamental U.S. national security interest. “I made no bones about that in my conversations with my counterpart." IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | NOT WORRIED ABOUT TRUMP: NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said he’s not concerned about the U.S. pulling out of the alliance even if former President DONALD TRUMP wins reelection in November, our own PAUL McLEARY and DANIEL LIPPMAN report. “I’m confident that the United States will remain a staunch ally” no matter who wins, Stoltenberg said in an interview with Paul and Daniel in Washington today. The NATO chief is in town to make his pitch that supporting Ukraine and rearming NATO — issues that are inexorably intertwined — helps the U.S. in the Pacific and creates American jobs. Stoltenberg noted that he worked with Trump during his four years as president, when Trump repeatedly threatened to leave the alliance as he thundered about NATO allies failing to keep up with defense spending pledges. Stoltenberg also pointed out that Trump’s criticism of NATO wasn’t really aimed at the alliance, but at individual countries that have failed to live up to the 2014 pledge to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense by 2024. “It’s important to listen,” he said, because the criticism from Trump “is not a criticism of NATO not investing enough in NATO.”
| | | CHECK OUT CHINA: The nation’s top cybersecurity and intelligence officials warned today that the U.S. networks are vulnerable to a "cyber invasion" by China — and that Chinese hackers are already well on their way to compromising the nation's critical infrastructure, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly testified to the House Select Committee on China that her agency had “found and eradicated” Chinese cyber intrusions in sectors including transportation, aviation, energy and water. "The truth is, the Chinese cyber actors have taken advantage of very basic flaws in our technology, we’ve made it easy on them," Easterly said. The warning from top officials came shortly after the Justice Department announced it had disrupted the infiltration of hundreds of U.S. routers and critical infrastructure networks by a major Chinese state-backed hacking group, Maggie and JOSEPH GEDEON report (for Pros!). The Justice Department said it moved to thwart the KV Botnet network, which is tied to the Chinese state-sponsored Volt Typhoon hacking group, and was used to mainly compromise outdated routers from Cisco and NetGear.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | FILLING KYIV’S POCKETS: The European Union has sent $30 billion worth of military aid to Kyiv so far and committed about $23 billion more for this year, our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI and LAURA KAYALI report. “This [$30 billion] figure is expected to increase in the coming period, as concrete deliveries will be further confirmed,” according to an internal document prepared by the European Commission and the EU diplomatic body. The numbers reflect contributions from European capitals and through channels centrally organized by Brussels. The document stresses that the $23 billion figure for this year is a “preliminary" estimate based on details shared by a "limited number” of EU countries. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: The EU has meanwhile met its pledge to produce 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine two months ahead of schedule, top official THIERRY BRETON said today, per our own JOSHUA POSANER. Just a fraction of those munitions are actually getting delivered to Kyiv, according to Breton, the EU executive’s de facto defense commissioner, speaking on the sidelines of an EU defense ministers meeting. But he touted it as a promising sign for both Ukraine, which is struggling to fill depleted stocks of munitions following its stalled counteroffensive, and the EU, which has faced criticism for ponying up too little support, too slowly for Kyiv. Breton said the EU’s ammunition production capacity should rise further to 1.4 million rounds in 2024 before hitting 2 million rounds in 2025. Despite the delivery holdups, Breton said meeting the 1 million round threshold was a big win for the West. "We are two months ahead of schedule in our capacity to produce more ammunition in Europe, of course for Ukraine but also for our own security," he said. Read: EU to Ukraine: You’ll get half the ammo we promised by March by Laura, Joshua and Jacopo
| | | NEW ISRAEL BILL: Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) and Rep. KEVIN HERN (R-Okla.) are urging House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to bring up a new Israel aid bill without IRS cuts attached — even as they hail Johnson for resisting a House floor vote on the Senate's still-unreleased border deal, our own OLIVIA BEAVERS reports. It's a potential off-ramp for conservatives in both chambers who don't want to take up Ukraine aid or the bipartisan immigration agreement that senators are hoping can shake loose Biden's entire stalled foreign aid plan. Notably, Vance and Hern appear to acknowledge that the House-passed Israel aid bill — which pairs the funding with IRS cuts that would reduce overall revenue — is going nowhere in the Democratic Senate. “For months, Senate leadership has attempted to trade Ukraine aid for a bill that would secure America’s border. If news reports are in any way accurate, that border negotiation is a complete policy failure. It’s time to address the issues that unite Republicans, not divide them," Vance and Hern said in their statement, a copy of which was shared with Olivia.
| | | POLLING WITH PUTIN: The elephant in Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s room can no longer be ignored, our own SERGEY GORYASHKO report. This morning, presidential hopeful BORIS NADEZHDIN and his team delivered two dozen boxes to the election officials in Moscow containing 105,000 signatures — the required quota to ensure his place on the ballot for the Russian presidential election in March. In a post on his Telegram channel, Nadezhdin, an anti-war candidate, said: “It will be very difficult for the CEC and the current authorities to say, ‘I didn’t even notice the elephant!’” His long-shot bid comes at a time when most Russian opposition figures are jailed or exiled. Nadezhdin’s anti-war stance has, however, nudged many Russians into backing his campaign as the Kremlin continues to wage full-scale war on Ukraine. DOUBLE JEOPARDY: Ex-Pakistani Prime Minister IMRAN KHAN was sentenced to prison for the second time in 24 hours today — just days ahead of the county’s next presidential election, The Washington Post’s SHAIQ HUSSAIN and RICK NOACK report. The convictions meted out earlier today and Tuesday stem from charges of corruption and exposing official secrets, and each carry long bans on the former Pakistani leader holding office again. Khan, who has been in prison since August, had previously been seeking judicial relief for a run in the country’s Feb. 8 general elections, but the chances that he will be allowed to do so are now “close to zero,” the Post writes.
| | | | — State Armor, a nonprofit focused on combating Chinese influence in the U.S. founded by MICHAEL LUCCI, officially launched today. In a statement, House China Select Committee Chair Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER commended the group for “acting with a sense of urgency to expose the CCP’s nefarious networks across our states and equip local lawmakers with the tools to fight this New Cold War.”
| | | |   | | | | | — MAX BOOT, The Washington Post: A Trump ‘America First’ foreign policy is the last thing the world needs — PETER RICKETTS, POLITICO: Ukraine war has changed Britain’s relationship with the EU — CAROLINE DE GRUYTER, Foreign Policy: The Habsburg solution for VIKTOR ORBAN
| | — The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: Current and emerging technologies in U.S.-China economic and national security competition — The Brookings Institution and World Wildlife Fund USA, 10:30 a.m.: Temperatures rising: illegal and unregulated fisheries, climate change and armed conflict at sea Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is afraid of our presidential ambitions. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would do well as Ukraine’s top military commander.
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