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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  The International Court of Justice imposed five main emergency measures on Israel, presenting quite the challenge for President Joe Biden and his team. | Patrick Post/AP | With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The United Nations’ Friday preliminary ruling on Israel is not going to change realities on the ground in Gaza, U.S. officials and experts say, but it will test the Biden administration’s commitment to the “rules-based international order” it claims to uphold. The International Court of Justice stopped short of ordering a cease-fire against Hamas but urged Israel to “take all measures” to prevent acts of genocide against Palestinians. The justices decided South Africa’s allegations were plausible — that is, they could be true based on a low standard of proof, but the evidentiary bar for a final decision is far, far higher. But the panel did impose five main emergency measures on Israel: 1) the government and military must refrain from any acts that violate the Genocide Convention; 2) punish any incitement to genocide and prevent other such incitements; 3) allow humanitarian assistance to reach those who need it; 4) prevent any destruction of evidence pertaining to the case; and 5) submit a compliance report within a month. That presents quite the challenge for President JOE BIDEN and his team. They have both staunchly supported Israel’s self defense after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack while demanding Palestinians in Gaza be spared unnecessary suffering. It’s one thing to push Israel to do that, it’s another to side with the justices and demand Israel comply with international law. “It changes the ask,” said DAVID KAYE, a former U.N. rapporteur. “This is a requirement and there are going to be consequences if you don’t, for example, provide humanitarian assistance.” Given that the World Court has no enforcement mechanism, he suggested any punishment doled out by the U.S. — Israel’s most important ally — would be the likeliest thing to make Israel change course. Without any movement on Washington’s part, the war in Gaza is likely to proceed as if no ruling was announced in the Netherlands. “The impact is minimal,” said DAVID BOSCO, an Indiana University professor of international organizations and law. “It doesn’t change the equation very much.” You can hear it already in public statements. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU vowed to continue the fight against Hamas until “absolute victory” is achieved, all hostages are returned and Gaza poses no threat to Israel. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY later reiterated the U.S. view that allegations of genocide by Israel are unfounded and told reporters at the White House “the court’s ruling is consistent with many of our positions.” “It’s difficult to see how this alone is going to change the approach,” Kirby continued. That won’t stop critics of the Biden administration, including progressives, from using this moment to argue the president needs to practice what he preaches. “If we support the creation of a global community based on shared rules rather than simply might makes right, it is absolutely essential that all countries, including the United States, acknowledge the legitimacy of this ruling and take necessary steps in response,” MATT DUSS, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy, said in a statement. Biden is hemorrhaging support from progressives due to his handling of the war in Gaza. Ignoring or minimizing the ICJ’s preliminary ruling could worsen his political predicament heading into November’s presidential election.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | BEIJING’S HOUTHI PUSH: China has asked Iran to either help rein in Houthi attacks on shopping vessels in the Red Sea or risk losing business relations with Beijing, Reuters’ PARISA HAFEZI and ANDREW HAYLEY report. During meetings in Beijing and Tehran, Chinese officials have essentially told their Iranian counterparts that “if our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint” an Iranian official briefed on the talks told Reuters. China didn’t make any specific threats about how its relationship with Iran could be hurt if Beijing’s trade interests are harmed, four officials told Reuters. But China is Iran’s largest trading partner, likely allowing it to influence the country’s decisions on such matters. As loyal NatSec Daily readers remember, U.S. officials on Tuesday said they hoped China would become more involved in pressuring Iran to help stop the Houthi attacks. Deputy national security adviser JON FINER underscored that point during an Asia Society event on Thursday, adding that Washington has talked with Beijing about the issue. "We think it is fundamentally not in China's interest for global sealanes to be shut down, particularly sealanes that carry significant amounts of trade to the PRC itself,” Finer said. “We have engaged the PRC to use their influence to try to end the threat that global shipping is facing.” National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN is in Thailand to meet with WANG YI, China’s top foreign policy official, about putting pressure on the Houthis to end their aggressions. U.S. and Chinese officials plan to hold high-level talk next week on curbing the fentanyl crisis, NBC News reports. TRAINING CHANGES: The Pentagon abruptly stopped plans to train alongside some countries accused of human rights violations or involved in the overthrow of democratic governments, The Washington Post’s ABIGAIL HAUSLOHNER and ALEX HORTON report. In October, the Defense Department shared plans with Congress that outlined the U.S. military’s intent to hold joint exercises with Sudan, Niger, Mali and other African nations engulfed in turmoil, according to the Post. Each is barred from receiving American security assistance under U.S. law. Asked by the Post why the U.S. is partnering with the countries, the Pentagon said at least six of the countries, including Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Niger and Sudan, were no longer set to take part in the joint exercises. One defense official told the Post that the U.S. never had an intent to train with the countries facing restrictions, while another said the list is fluid and other countries could be cut from the exercises as well. The sudden change appears to be at least partially driven by criticism from Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Biden administration to not train with the countries after learning of the plans, the Post reports. FREE EVAN: A Russian court extended Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH’s pretrial detention through March, meaning that he’ll have spent at least a year behind bars on espionage charges, The Associated Press reports. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring IVO DAALDER, CEO of the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs. When he’s not in chilly Chicago, you can sometimes find the former U.S. ambassador to NATO in Italy enjoying a glass of Barolo “with the perfect risotto a fungi.” Why Barolo? “Best with risotto!” Daalder told us, calling himself an “Italian foodie.” And does the Barolo go down better in one part of Europe’s boot than another? No, Daalder said, he’ll be enjoying that wine-and-meal pairing “anywhere in Italy.” Saluti, Ivo! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | ‘PERFECT’ BORDER: Former President DONALD TRUMP openly made his case to scuttle a border-security deal lawmakers are hashing out in a Thursday evening Truth Social post. “We need a Strong, Powerful, and essentially ‘PERFECT’ Border and, unless we get that, we are better off not making a Deal, even if that pushes our Country to temporarily ‘close up’ for a while,” he wrote. “A Border Deal now would be another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats. They need it politically, but don’t care about our Border. What is currently being worked on in the Senate will be meaningless in terms of Border Security and Closure.” The Republican frontrunner for the presidential nomination was already lobbying lawmakers, telling them that any deal would help Biden’s reelection campaign. Some Republican senators, including Utah’s MITT ROMNEY, were incensed that Trump would try to blow up months of negotiations. “The fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is … really appalling,” he told CNN on Thursday. The border deal also matters because an agreement on that is the only way roughly $61 billion in more military aid will be sent to Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who supports sending more assistance to Kyiv, said Trump’s antics have put his party in a political “quandary.”
| | STATE’S STRATEGY: The State Department is on track to unveil its much-anticipated international cybersecurity strategy sometime in the spring, the nation’s top cyber diplomat, NATE FICK, told our own MAGGIE MILLER in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!). Fick said he is aiming for a mid-to-late spring release, with May seen as a “realistic timeline.” The strategy has already been drafted and circulated within the State Department, with what Fick described as a “third draft” currently under review by the National Security Council and related agencies. The creation of a strategy on “international cyberspace and digital policy” was mandated by the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. It will mark a major update for the State Department’s policy issues, as the last international cyber strategy was released in 2012. It will lay out the U.S. approach to cyber diplomacy on issues like AI and norms of behavior in cyberspace — all meant to complement the White House’s National Cyber Strategy.
| | | |   | | | | | COOL YOUR JETS: President JOE BIDEN says it’s time to sell F-16s to Ankara, but lawmakers who have tangled with Turkey’s leader before aren’t ready to approve the deal just yet, our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!). Turkey’s parliament seemed to pave the way for the jet deal on Tuesday, when it approved Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Yet Senate Foreign Relations Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and Ranking Member Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) still want to make sure Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, who signed the accession documents on Thursday, actually sends the paperwork to NATO. “It isn't over till it's over,” Risch told our colleagues. “It's over when they deposit the documents with NATO.” Both lawmakers have had a front-row seat to Erdoğan’s rocky relations with Washington over a range of issues beyond its meandering path to letting Sweden into the alliance. And it’s clear that U.S. lawmakers don’t trust him. “They have slow-walked this from the beginning, and if you know Erdoğan, one would not be shocked at that being the tactic or strategy” now, Risch said. “He’s a unique individual.” CHINA SLAMS SPACE FORCE: Beijing condemned what it called Pentagon efforts to peddle fears of China’s space program to cover up U.S. efforts to weaponize “space technology” including satellites. “The U.S. has long been repeatedly hyping up China as a ‘threat in outer space’ to smear and attack China, which is only an excuse for the U.S. to expand its forces in outer space and maintain military hegemony,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said on Friday. Wang’s screed was in response to a question by state media tabloid Global Times about the U.S. Space Force’s assessment in a recent report that “China and Russia are testing and developing anti-satellite weapons to deny, disrupt or destroy satellites and space services.” The Space Force didn’t respond to a request for comment.
| | | | SCHATZ’S RESOLUTION: Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii) will offer an amendment to the national security supplemental stating that the U.S. favors a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians, The Washington Post’s LEIGH ANN CALDWELL and THEODORIC MEYER report. The resolution has 49 Democrats signed on, with Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) joining all Republicans in opposition. Seeking a two-state solution is already U.S. policy and Biden has stated time and again that he supports the plan. Still, Schatz argues the resolution is needed to add some oomph behind those positions. “It reiterates that that’s United States policy, and five or 10 years ago, this wouldn’t have been necessary. But two things have changed. The first obviously is Oct. 7, and all the death and destruction on both sides that is tearing the country asunder and causing people to lose hope. And the second is the prime minister’s recent statements, I think, demand a response,” Schatz told WaPo in an interview. Netanyahu on Saturday again rejected the two-state solution, saying “I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over all the territory west of the Jordan” River. WAR POWERS FOR YEMEN: Two dozen House members will send a letter Friday to Biden claiming he must ask Congress for an authorization to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen. The letter led by Reps. WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio) and RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) is more strongly worded than other missives from lawmakers on the issue, The Washington Post’s YASMEEN ABUTALEB and Hauslohner report. Since the retaliatory strikes on the Iran-backed militants were planned weeks in advance, they don’t meet the “national emergency” criteria that permits the president to bypass Congress, the House members argue. “We ask that your administration outline for us the legal authority used to conduct these strikes, and we urge your administration to seek authorization from Congress before conducting any more unauthorized strikes in Yemen,” they wrote. Presidential historian JOSHUA ZEITZ wrote in POLITICO on Wednesday that Biden was within his Constitutional authority to strike the Houthis without first asking Congress for permission. “Biden has unilaterally ordered targeted strikes against Houthi military targets to diminish the terrorists’ ability to persist in their piracy. He hasn’t ordered a ground invasion of Yemen, a wider offensive against civil and governmental assets or an initiative to depose the Houthi government,” he wrote, claiming the current president followed THOMAS JEFFERSON’s playbook against the Barbary pirates.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | UNRWA FUNDING PAUSE: The U.S. has temporarily halted funding to a Palestinian refugee-focused U.N. agency after allegations surfaced that 12 of its employees were involved in the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, the State Department announced today. MATTHEW MILLER, the diplomatic agency’s top spokesperson, said Blinken spoke to U.N. Secretary General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES about the need for “a thorough and swift investigation of this matter.” UNRWA chief PHILIPPE LAZZARINI said today that he already terminated the contracts of the employees and launched an investigation into what happened after receiving information from Israeli authorities. “Anyone who betrays the fundamental values of the United Nations also betrays those whom we serve in Gaza, across the region and elsewhere around the world.” NSC spox Kirby told White House reporters today it “certainly looks as if there's cause to be concerned about the actions of some of the members of UNRWA,” though he added the actions of those employees should not impugn the reputation of an organization “that have helped save literally thousands of lives in Gaza.” MOSCOW DENIES REPORT: The Kremlin today denied the Bloomberg report that said Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has “put out feelers” to the U.S. to signal that he’s open to talks to end the war on Ukraine. "No, this is a wrong report. It absolutely does not correspond to reality," Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said, per Reuters. Moscow often denies media reports that don’t align with the narrative it wants to publicly push. But U.S. officials also told Bloomberg that they have yet to hear this offer and aren’t sure Putin is serious about negotiations anyway. Read: EU threatens to silence Hungary if it blocks Ukrainian funds by our own BARBARA MOENS, JACOPO BARIGAZZI, CLEA CAULCUTT and EDDY WAX
| | — JEFF ROTHBLUM is now director of cyber policy and plans in the Office of the National Cyber Director at the White House. He most recently was senior professional staff member for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. — PRATIMA NARAYAN will be a senior adviser to the ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice at the State Department. She currently is advocacy director for Asia and the Pacific in the U.S. foreign policy division at Open Society Foundations. — DAVID OHANA is now chief comms and marketing officer at the U.N. Foundation. He most recently was at the Minderoo Foundation and Tattarang, and is a UNICEF alum. — BONNIE GLICK is now an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation for the Defense of Democracies. She previously was the founding director of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue, and is a Trump USAID alum.
| | — JOSEPH CELLA, The Hill: In its cold war with China, the U.S. cannot afford to neglect Pacific island nations — MICHAEL KOFMAN, ROB LEE and DARA MASSICOT, War On The Rocks: Hold, build and strike: a vision for rebuilding Ukraine’s advantage in 2024 — SEAN JACOBS, The New York Times: South Africa sees its moral conscience in a genocide case
| | — The Atlantic Council, noon: Regional de-escalation, war in Gaza and U.S.-Qatar relations with Qatari Prime Minister SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN JASSIM AL-THANI — Washington Post Live, noon: Documenting Israel-Gaza War and life under siege — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: U.S.-South Asia relations with with Rep. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.) — United States Institute of Peace, 2 p.m.: Nobody's listening: supporting the Yazidi community 10 years after genocide Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always breaks the rules. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who makes the rules.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
