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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  The weekend strikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria and Iraq was the first wave, U.S. officials said, with at least more counterpunches expected in the days ahead. | Hadi Mizban/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration doesn’t want a direct war with Iran. But its messaging has, intentionally or not, fueled speculation that attacks on the Islamic Republic’s sovereign territory could come at some point. The weekend strikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria and Iraq served as punishment after the killing of three U.S. service members in Jordan. That was the first wave, U.S. officials said, with at least more counterpunches expected in the days ahead. “The goal here is to get these attacks to stop. We're not looking for a war with Iran,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Friday night. But then national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN went on multiple Sunday shows and was asked repeatedly whether the U.S. had ruled out strikes inside Iran. He didn’t, but his language indicated he just declined answering the question. “Sitting here today on a national news program, I'm not going to get into what we've ruled in and ruled out from the point of view of military action,” he said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” He offered a nearly word-for-word response on CNN’s “State of the Union.” NatSec Daily spoke to two senior administration officials who said Sullivan’s intention wasn’t to slyly signal attacking Iran proper was on the table. Rather, as one of the officials said, “we just don't want to speak to future potential operations.” It’s unclear if President JOE BIDEN’s aides presented him with options to attack sovereign Iranian territory. What we do know, based on what a third senior official told us last week, is that hitting Iran directly isn’t part of any planned retributive strikes. That’s angering some Republicans who argue it’s time Tehran feels some direct pain. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said Iran’s oil-export infrastructure or naval ships would make great first targets. “If I was president, I’d do one of these hard. If they decide to further escalate I’d hit the other,” he said in an interview. “We’d never put ground forces against Iran, but our Navy and Air Force could deliver a massive punch in no time.” Bacon and his colleagues suggest that Biden’s efforts to tamp down tensions by hitting Iranian proxies and stating he doesn’t want a bigger fight just lets Iran know what lines they can cross. “He wants to send a signal like ‘oh let’s have peace, let’s have quiet,’ and all it does is embolden the ayatollahs to continue these attacks,” Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), who’s discussed a potential Pentagon chief in a second Trump administration, said on Fox News over the weekend.
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Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn More. | | | | | NO HEADS UP: The White House said it didn’t notify the Iraqi government that American forces would strike inside the country last week, despite telling reporters that it did, Matt reports. State Department spokesperson VEDANT PATEL told reporters today that “there was not a pre-notification” and that the U.S. “informed the Iraqis immediately after the strikes. The Iraqi government “understood that there would be a response after the deaths of our soldiers,” Patel said. That contradicted Kirby’s comments to reporters during a call on Friday, in which the NSC spokesperson said, “We did inform the Iraqi government prior to the strikes occurring.” Asked about the discrepancy today, Kirby didn’t admit error but suggested that his comment may have been inaccurate. “I responded with information that I had been provided at the time. It was not as specific as it could have been, and I regret any confusion caused,” Kirby said. “That said, we had made no secret — both to Iraqi officials and in public channels — that we would respond. And, we did, in fact, officially notify Iraq, as appropriate with standard procedure.” ‘FUELING CHAOS AND DISORDER’: Six allied Kurdish fighters were killed late Sunday in a drone attack on a Syrian base housing U.S. troops, The Associated Press’ BASSEM MROUE and KAREEM CHEHAYEB report. Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, who are backed by the U.S., said today that the strike targeted a training ground at al-Omar base in Syria’s eastern province of Deir el-Zour. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq — the same umbrella group of Iran-backed militias that killed three American troops in Jordan — claimed responsibility. The attack comes as Washington attempts to thwart Tehran’s influence in the Middle East by targeting its proxy groups. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson NASSER KANANI on Sunday accused the U.S. and Britain of “fueling chaos and disorder” following strikes from both countries, our own HANS VON DER BURCHARD reported. These attacks are “in clear contradiction with the repeated claims of Washington and London that they do not want the expansion of war and conflict in the region,” Kanani said, according to AFP. He added that further attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen would constitute a “threat to international peace and security.” BLINKEN IN MIDDLE EAST: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is in the Middle East for the first time since Israel offered Hamas a deal to pause fighting in exchange for the release of hostages, and the administration is lowering expectations for what may come of it. "Impossible to say if we’ll get a breakthrough, when we’ll get a breakthrough," a senior U.S. official told reporters on the flight to Saudi Arabia, per Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and HUMEYRA PAMUK. "The ball right now is in Hamas’ court." During Blinken’s fifth visit to the region, which will also include stops in Egypt, Qatar and Israel, he’ll attempt to garner support for U.S. plans to rebuild and govern Gaza following the war, recognize a Palestinian state and normalize ties between Israel and Arab countries. "If we get a humanitarian pause, we want to be in a position to move as quickly as possible on the various pieces of 'day after,'" the U.S. official told reporters. NO CHANGE ON PALESTINE POLICY: British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK said the U.K.’s policy on recognizing a Palestinian state hasn’t changed, after his top diplomat sparked anger from conservative lawmakers by floating the idea, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports. Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON told lawmakers last week that the U.K. would “look at the issue of recognizing a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations,” arguing the move could deliver “irreversible progress to a two-state solution.” But Sunak told PIERS MORGAN that Cameron’s comments had been “over-interpreted” and said that U.K. policy supporting a two-state solution remains the same. Asked directly if the U.K. would consider recognizing a Palestinian state before the conclusion of any peace process — as Cameron had hinted the government could do — Sunak said the U.K. would only do so “at a point where it is most conducive to the process.” IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | NATSEC ACTION REBORN: An organization designed to build the intellectual underpinning of a Democratic foreign policy has been relaunched, Axios’ ALEX THOMPSON reports, a sign that Biden will get more support backing his handling of global affairs during a likely contest with Trump. National Security Action, cofounded in 2018 by JAKE SULLIVAN and BEN RHODES, was shuttered during Biden’s presidency but is now back to deliver a message that Trump is dangerous for the world. Rhodes told Thompson that a Trump victory “will validate that the trend in global politics is in this autocratic direction. And so whether you're XI JINPING or VLADIMIR PUTIN or KIM JONG UN or even a far-right party in Europe, you are going to feel the wind in your sails." There were no plans to put NatSec Action back into, well, action, until recently. The emergence of Trump as the likely Republican nominee led Rhodes et al. to gear up for a 2024 fight. BEN-GVIR’S PREFERENCE: Far-right Israeli minister ITAMAR BEN-GVIR criticized the Biden administration for its focus on providing humanitarian aid to Gaza amid Israel’s war with Hamas — saying that DONALD TRUMP would be more helpful. “Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with giving humanitarian aid and fuel [to Gaza], which goes to Hamas,” Ben-Gvir told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Sunday. “If Trump was in power, the U.S. conduct would be completely different.” As Israel’s national security minister, Ben-Gvir has emerged as a nationalist firebrand with controversial views for how Israel should handle its war in the Gaza Strip, joining other far-right figures in calling for the “voluntary” mass emigration of Palestinians from the territory and the return of Jewish settlements. His remarks about Trump drew backlash from influential Israelis. War-cabinet minister BENNY GANTZ tweeted that Ben-Gvir is “causing tremendous damage” to U.S.-Israeli relations, while opposition leader YAIR LAPID also posted that the comments prove Ben-Gvir “does not understand foreign relations.” ICYMI — Trump praises Xi, while raising prospect of higher tariffs on Chinese imports by our own MERIDITH McGRAW
| | VISA RULES: The Biden administration announced today that it will deny U.S. visas to foreign nationals who are believed to be involved in the misuse of commercial spyware, our own JOSEPH GEDEON and MAGGIE MILLER report (for Pros!). In a briefing with reporters, a senior administration official said the State Department would make visa decisions on a case-by-case basis after reviewing credible information about an individual’s involvement in supplying or profiting from the use of spyware. The move represents the latest push by the White House to crack down on the burgeoning market for powerful surveillance tools that have been used by authoritarian governments to target dissidents, journalists, human rights activists and U.S. government officials. The Biden administration has been increasingly vocal about the threats posed by spyware vendors such as Israel’s NSO Group, whose Pegasus spyware has been used by foreign governments to surveil journalists, dissidents and politicians. The Commerce Department blacklisted NSO from use in the U.S. in 2021 for its “malicious cyber activities.” The U.S. move also follows revelations that Pegasus was used by foreign governments to target American officials.
| | | |   | | | | | ZELENSKYY SHUFFLE: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY confirmed that he’s thinking of resetting his government and military leadership after weeks of rumors, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. “If we want to win, we must all push in the same direction, convinced of victory — we cannot be discouraged, let ourselves down — we must have the right positive energy,” Zelenskyy told Italian outlet RaiNews late Sunday, in response to reports that he is planning to dismiss top general VALERY ZALUZHNY. “I have something serious in mind, which is not about a single person but about the direction of the country’s leadership.” Zelenskyy said Ukraine needs a change of leadership, and “not just in a single sector such as the military” — suggesting a reshuffle of top officials in government may be imminent. “So, you can’t say we would replace a single person.” JETS TO KYIV: Defense Minister KAJSA OLLONGREN said the Netherlands will send Ukraine six additional F-16 fighter jets after canceling the planned sale of the aircraft to a private contractor, our own JOSHUA POSANER reports. Read: Hungary’s ruling party balks at Swedish NATO vote by our own STUART LAU
| | ANOTHER BLOW TO CHOLLET: The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee doesn’t want Biden’s nominee for top Pentagon policy post to get the job, our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN report (for Pros!). Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) urged the Senate in a letter sent Monday to reject DEREK CHOLLET. According to McCaul, Chollet — a top State Department official — said “roughly one hundred times that he ‘did not remember,’ or ‘did not recall’” when interviewed by HFAC several weeks ago. “Mr. Chollet’s feigned forgetfulness reflects a disrespect for Congress’ oversight authority under Article I of the U.S. Constitution,” McCaul wrote to leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee in the letter, obtained by POLITICO. “The magnitude of this lack of transparency and obfuscation should disqualify him for undersecretary of defense for policy because he would directly impact the lives of America’s service members for years to come.” McCaul’s push is another blow to Chollet’s nomination and Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED’s efforts to win confirmation for him on a bipartisan basis. Chollet’s confirmation is facing stiff Republican opposition. GOP objections also include the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy and other Biden administration decisions. BORDER BRAWL: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle slammed on the long-awaited border deal to unlock Ukraine and Israel aid, posing a problem for Democrats and the Biden administration who want to get it passed as soon as possible. “Major chunks of this legislation read like an enforcement wish list from the Trump administration, and directly clash with the most basic tenets of our asylum system,” Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) said in a statement, adding that the bill will “upend the lives of millions of migrants, asylum seekers, immigrant families, and others.” The $118 billion agreement, released Sunday afternoon, would tighten the standard for migrants to receive asylum, automatically shut down the southern border to illegal crossings if migrant encounters hit certain daily benchmarks and earmarked billions of dollars for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as well as the border. A vote to advance the package is expected on Wednesday, though it’s unclear if the legislation has the necessary 60 votes to clear the chamber. On the issue of Ukraine funding, Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) pointed out that the border bill “implies a continual, multi-year engagement in Ukraine,” leading him to question whether the United states is preparing for an “endless proxy war” to enrich defense contractors. Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) voiced similar criticisms as Menendez, drawing parallels to the bill and Trump-era border policies that she says will effectively close the border and turn away asylum seekers without due process. “Let me be clear: The Senate Border Bill will NOT receive a vote in the House,” House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE tweeted. In his own statement today, Trump — who has attempted to sway Republicans away from supporting the bill — blasted the legislation, calling it “great gift to the Democrats, and a Death Wish for The Republican Party,” our own KELLY GARRITY reports. Explainer: What’s really in Biden’s bipartisan immigration deal by our own JENNIFER SCHOLTES and CAITLIN EMMA Read: Why the border deal happened: Republicans held Europe for ransom by our own ALEX BURNS
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | TUCKER RUSSIAN FOR AN INTERVIEW? Former Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON is in Moscow and no one’s sure why. But it could be to score a one-on-one with the Kremlin leader. Asked his reason for visiting by Russian newspaper Izvestia newspaper, Carlson said of Moscow: "It is beautiful. … I just wanted to see it because, you know, I have read so much about it but I have never seen it before,” per Reuters. Prodded about whether he’ll interview VLADIMIR PUTIN, he said, “We’ll see,” and smiled. The Kremlin also didn’t give much when asked about Carlson’s arrival: "Many foreign journalists come to Russia every day, many continue to work here, and we welcome this," Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said. "We have nothing to announce in terms of the president's interviews to foreign media." Read: Anti-war Putin challenger faces disqualification from Russian election race by our own SERGEY GORYASHKO
| | — LUKA IGNAC started working for the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council ahead of NATO's Washington summit. He most recently was an assistant director for the Europe Center at the think tank. — DANA STROUL has been named the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s research director. She just left the Biden administration as the Pentagon’s top civilian for the Middle East.
| | — SHANNON TIEZZI, The Diplomat: China-U.S. relations: ping-pong diplomacy 2.0 — GIDEON RACHMAN, Financial Times: Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine — STEPHEN HADLEY and MATTHEW KROENIG, The Wall Street Journal: A new strategy can save Ukraine
| | — Association of the United States Army, 8:15 a.m.: Discussion with Army Chief of Staff Gen. RANDY GEORGE — United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: One-year later: earthquakes in Syria and Turkey: lessons on international disaster response and the challenges in northwest Syria — Defense Priorities, 11 a.m.: Does the Middle East still matter? — Middle East Institute, 11:30 a.m.: The Houthis, Iran and Red Sea security — Hudson Institute, noon: Russia's war against Ukraine as seen from Slovakia — Center for Strategic and International Studies, noon: Shaping the future of federal cybersecurity: insights from the federal civilian executive branch — Henry L. Stimson Center, 1 p.m.: A credible grand strategy: the urgent need to set priorities — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Investigations Subcommittee, 3:30 p.m.: Foreign influence in the United States: reviewing Boston Consulting Group, McKinsey & Company, M. Klein and Company and Teneo's compliance with congressional subpoenas Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never says what she means in public. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, whose clarity outshines the priciest diamond.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats
To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
