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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Speaker Mike Johnson arrives for a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 6, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | With help from Connor O'Brien Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The more than $100 billion question is what’s going to happen with the national security supplemental now? The Republican demand to strengthen border security before approving aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan was already in trouble. Some Republicans were skeptical of further supporting foreign nations or that the border part would be tough enough, while Democrats complained about fueling wars overseas and being too strict on undocumented immigrants. But the Senate Republican revolt against the border portion has sunk any immediate prospects for passage as written. “It’s DOA,” said a House Democratic aide, like others granted anonymity to discuss backroom discussions. Now aides from the White House to Capitol Hill are scrambling to figure out what comes next. The honest answer is that no one really knows, but some theories are emerging. The most popular one we heard is that a revised version of the supplemental could be folded into a package extending government funding beyond early March. A Senate Democratic staffer suggested it was possible the border portion would be wholly stripped out as well as non-military aid for Ukraine. Another idea is to simply not include any border funding and just vote on the Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific portions. That would effectively be the original version President JOE BIDEN proposed before Republicans demanded reform to immigration policies before approving the measure. The GOP-led House could also pass an Israel standalone. The Senate could then take up that bill and tack on defense-related items before leading to a reconciliation process with the lower chamber. But our own OLIVIA BEAVERS and ANTHONY ADRAGNA report that an Israel-only bill is not guaranteed to make it through the House, as it would require two-thirds of the chamber to pass it per the rules Speaker MIKE JOHNSON invoked to get a vote. Then there’s the take-it-or-leave-it option, which would see Biden encourage lawmakers to pass the deal they hammered out. That was his main message in an afternoon address from the White House today. “It’s a win for America,” he said. “Doing nothing is not an option.” “I’m calling on Congress to pass this bill, get it to my desk immediately,” Biden continued, promising to blame DONALD TRUMP and the Republicans he pressured if the measure fails. The general belief is that something will pass eventually, but it ain’t gonna be what’s on offer today. “We have no chance to make a law” out of the current text, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL said today.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | FIFTH OF HOSTAGES DEAD: More than a fifth of the hostages being held by Hamas are dead, according to an internal assessment conducted by the Israeli military and reviewed by The New York Times’ RONEN BERGMAN and PATRICK KINGSLEY. At least 32 of the 136 hostages have died since the start of the war. Four military officials told the Times that each family whose relative died has been informed. Officers are also assessing intelligence which indicated that another 20 hostages may have died, those officials said. The Israeli military told the Times that most of the hostages who died were killed on Oct. 7. The Biden administration has been upfront about the lack of clarity on the number of hostages remaining and their situation. “We do not and cannot have a clear picture of exactly how many hostages are still alive and how many have tragically passed away,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said Sunday on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” US LOOKING AT HOSTAGE DEAL: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said today that the U.S. is reviewing Hamas’ response to the hostage deal proposed by Israel that would see an exchange of prisoners for a pause in fighting, Reuters’ HUMEYRA PAMUK reports. While visiting Qatar to talk about the deal and the United States’ postwar plans for Gaza, Blinken said he would discuss the response with Israeli officials during his trip to the country on Wednesday. Hamas said it responded in a “positive spirit” to the hostage deal proposed by Israel, but still wants a complete end to the fighting in Gaza, The Associated Press’ MATTHEW LEE, WAFAA SHURAFA and SAMY MAGDY report. But the militant group said it still wants “a comprehensive and complete” cease-fire to stop “the aggression against our people.” Israel has said it wouldn’t end the war as it attempts to root out Hamas from the territory. “There’s been a response from Hamas,” Biden confirmed to reporters today, but said “it was over the top.” Israel’s military operation now covers two-thirds of the Gaza Strip, equivalent to 95 square miles, The AP also reports, citing United Nations humanitarian monitors. Those monitors also assessed that more than half of the 2.3 million Gazans living in the territory are now crammed in the town of Rafah on Egypt’s border. A quarter of Gazans are also starving, and 85 percent have been pushed out of their homes. MOSCOW'S MONEY MOVE: Moscow has allowed the release of millions of dollars in frozen Pyongyang assets and might be helping the regime navigate international banking networks after it provided Russia with weapons, American-allied intelligence officials told The New York Times’ MOTOKO RICH. Russia has released $9 million out of $30 million in frozen assets deposited in a Russian financial institution, which North Korea could use to buy crude oil, the officials told the Times. A North Korean company also recently opened another Russian bank account, a sign that Moscow could be helping the country skirt U.N. sanctions. Last month, the White House said it had evidence that Pyongyang provided Moscow with ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine, and North Korea has also sent millions of rounds of ammunition to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Donetsk region is being hit by between 1,500 and 2,500 shells and rockets from Russia every day: "The enemy's shelling is this dense, this heavy, almost every day,” VADYM FILASHKIN, the area’s governor, told Reuters’ MAX HUNDER. His remarks come as Ukraine and its Western allies raise concerns that Kyiv is running out of ammo. Filashkin said Russian forces are targeting critical infrastructure in Donetsk, including the Kurakhove power plant, one of the few remaining large-scale electricity sources for Ukraine remaining. Read: TUCKER CARLSON confirms he’s interviewing VLADIMIR PUTIN by our own NICOLAS CAMUT, EVA HARTOG and SERGEY GORYASHKO IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | TRUMP TROUBLE: Trump and any other former president may be prosecuted for alleged crimes they committed while in office, a federal appeals court panel ruled today, as our own KYLE CHENEY and JOSH GERSTEIN report. The unanimous 57-page decision from a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals is a major win for special counsel JACK SMITH, who is seeking to put Trump on trial this year on federal felony charges stemming from his efforts to overthrow the 2020 election. But the ruling is likely to trigger further appeals from Trump, who can ask the Supreme Court to weigh in.
| | THEY LEFT BECAUSE THE RIGHT: Some of the country’s top cybersecurity experts say they’re quietly retreating from a highly touted government partnership, citing frustrations with its management and pressure from conservative critics, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency launched the initiative — known as the Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative — in 2021 to enlist outside tech pros in the fight against cybercrime gangs and state-backed hacking outfits following a series of high-profile breaches. The threat-sharing hub allows elite corporate hackers to quickly exchange signs of suspicious activity with the U.S. government and IT workers defending key parts of the economy, including schools, water facilities, hospitals and pipelines, to respond to or prevent hacks. Participants hail from tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, as well as infrastructure operators, foreign governments, nonprofits and midsize security firms. But five external computer security professionals involved in the JCDC told John they and many colleagues have stopped contributing or have significantly pared back their involvement: The JCDC “has been dead for a while now,” said JUAN ANDRES GUERRERO-SAADE, a senior technical analyst at SentinelOne, a billion-dollar security firm that participates in the program. Read: UK, France pitch rules to curb spyware abuse by our own ANTOANETA ROUSSI
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | MATTIS ADVISED UAE ON YEMEN: Former Defense Secretary JIM MATTIS was a military adviser to the United Arab Emirates as it joined the Saudi-led coalition against Iran-backed Houthis, The Washington Post’s CRAIG WHITLOCK and NATE JONES report. U.S. officials approved of Mattis’ work and then tried to keep his advisory role from the public. The retired Marine four-star didn’t disclose his contract before becoming defense secretary in 2017. “Though he reported it confidentially to the Senate Armed Services Committee, multiple senators said they were not informed. He also did not mention it in his 2019 memoir,” WaPo reports. It’s unclear if Mattis was compensated for his efforts. Documents WaPo obtained said he would be paid but a spokesperson said Mattis worked for free. Still, Mattis’ advisory position is another sign of how former military leaders increasingly — and quietly — get paid to help foreign governments with their operational and strategic thinking.
| | FIRST IN NASTEC DAILY — LET KISHIDA SPEAK: A bipartisan group of nearly 30 senators has asked Speaker Johnson to invite Japan’s leader to address a joint session of Congress. Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO is coming to Washington in April, and speaking to lawmakers would be an important moment to solidify U.S.-Japan relations, the 29 senators wrote: “Inviting Prime Minister Kishida to address a joint session of Congress would further enhance our bilateral diplomatic ties and highlight the shared strategic interests and values between our two nations.” The letter was led by Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), a former U.S. ambassador to Japan, and Sen. MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii). The Biden administration has made getting closer to Japan a key pillar of its Indo-Pacific strategy, elevating the importance of the Quad partnership, coordinating on responding to North Korean aggressions and countering China. STATE NO. 2 APPROVED: The Senate this afternoon confirmed KURT CAMPBELL to be the next deputy secretary of State in a 92-5 blowout vote, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Campbell, who was nominated by Biden in November, was most recently the National Security Council's coordinator for the Indo-Pacific. The No. 2 job has been held on an acting basis by VICTORIA NULAND since July. ASK BEFORE SENDING, PLEASE: Senate Democrats are pushing for the Biden administration to notify lawmakers before approving weapons sales to Israel, following complaints that the White House bypassed Congress previously. If passed, the amendment introduced by Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) would strike language in the national security supplemental that allows Biden to send future military assistance to Israel without notifying Congress first. “Congress and the American people deserve full transparency about military assistance to all nations. No president of any party should bypass Congress on issues of war, peace, and diplomacy,” Kaine said in a statement. Read: Critics claim border bill would send $60B to Ukraine. But most of it is staying in the US. by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD
| | | |   | | | | | ‘WEAKNESS INVITES AGGRESSION’: The House Foreign Affairs Committee blasted Biden today for his handling of the Houthi strikes in the Red Sea, posting a video urging him to “take more decisive action.” “The Biden administration waited far too long … to respond to attacks by Iran-backed terrorists in the Red Sea, putting lives at risk,” the committee wrote on X. “The administration must relist the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization immediately. Time is of the essence.” Last month, the Biden administration redesignated Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen as specially designated global terrorists, drawing backlash from Republicans who wanted a harsher classification for the militant group. “Weakness invites aggression,” the committee wrote in the video, which depicts militants taking over ships. Read: Ukrainian journalists say state security spied on them by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA
| | — Retired Gen. STEPHEN LYONS and BRENT YOUNG have joined West Exec Advisors as senior advisers. Lyons was the special presidential envoy for ports and supply chains. Young was a former vice president at Intel.
| | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Is Antony Blinken too nice to be secretary of State? (By the way, Blinken responded to this today: "Most people who assume the position that I have the great privilege of assuming now don't get there by being nice all the time.") — AMY KNIGHT, The Washington Post: In Russia, an antiwar movement is taking shape — NOAM RAYDAN and GRANT RUMLEY, Foreign Affairs: How Washington emboldened the Houthis
| | — Association of the United States Army, 8:05 a.m.: Contested logistics in large scale combat operations — Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: Developments in Northern Ireland, as well as Ireland's commitment to human rights and defending the rules-based international system — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Political violence in America — House Foreign Affairs Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: The fight for freedom in Venezuela — Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: Book discussion on "Countdown: The Blinding Future of Nuclear Weapons” Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is often “over the top.” We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who always acts just right.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
