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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  A top Israeli parliamentarian said he doesn’t want Israel to keep full control of Gaza. But he does argue the post-war environment will require Israel Defense Forces to keep the peace. | Ariel Schalit/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Israeli forces are likely to remain in Gaza until a stabilization force can maintain order in the enclave, a top Israeli parliamentarian told NatSec Daily. MK YULI YOEL EDELSTEIN, who chairs the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, doesn’t want Israel to keep full control of Gaza and build Jewish communities there. But he does argue the post-war environment will require Israel Defense Forces to keep the peace. “In the near future, the IDF will have to act unless we find that force that will be able to deal with the remnants of Hamas,” he said in an interview. For the moment, Edelstein continued, “I don't see a force like that, that would be insane enough to move in right now and suddenly start dealing with the terrorists still left in the field.” Options for a non-Israeli force have been considered, including one made up of soldiers from Arab states and/or trained anti-Hamas Palestinians. So far no one has raised their hand to fill in for the IDF — "I don't think that they're suicidal,” said Edelstein — leading the panel chair to contend Israeli forces must remain in Gaza without a clear exit timeline. Edelstein, a member of Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s Likud party, insists Israeli forces won’t stay in Gaza indefinitely. Segments of the army have already left the enclave, he said, a sign that Israel is shifting toward more targeted operations. Still, the security situation as it looks today requires a prolonged Israeli military presence, Edelstein contends: “The moment IDF leaves, Hamas will immediately try to reestablish their power.” Israeli forces and members of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet say the fight against Hamas, which started the conflict by killing 1,200 people Oct. 7, could last the entirety of 2024. The Biden administration is encouraging Israel to tamp down the intensity of its anti-Hamas mission, hopefully alleviating the suffering of 2.3 million Palestinians, many of whom are injured, displaced, malnourished and sick. Hamas-run health ministries in Gaza report more than 27,500 deaths since the war began. The comments by Edelstein may fuel suspicions that Israeli forces aim to stay in Gaza forever. Some members of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition want Palestinians to leave the enclave, making room for Jewish settlers — comments that have prompted rebukes from the State Department. What happens next will very much depend on the results of the war and especially an investigation into how Israel failed to stop Hamas’ initial attack. Edelstein, who has challenged Netanyahu’s party leadership, expects “there will be changes, both in the political system and in military leadership. There is no doubt about it.” Reports indicate that Israel knew about Hamas’ attack plan for more than a year. While the probe is ongoing, Edelstein thinks intelligence analysts saw Hamas training but didn’t expect the militants would actually follow through with it. “It's not what you see, what you hear, it's how you interpret that,” he said, “and even when we saw worrisome things, the concept used to be that Hamas is deterred.”
| | | US HITS MILITIAS: The U.S. military carried out a drone strike in Iraq on Wednesday targeting members of an Iranian-backed militia group, two U.S. officials told Alex. Both officials, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation, couldn’t immediately confirm if any of the targets had been killed. The attack on the Kataib Hezbollah fighters in eastern Baghdad was part of the Biden administration’s retaliation for the killing of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan on Jan. 28. HAMAS PROPOSAL IS HERE: In exchange for the release of all Israeli hostages, Hamas wants a four-and-a-half-month cease-fire that includes Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, the release of imprisoned Palestinians and a deal to end the war, The Associated Press’ MATTHEW LEE, WAFAA SHURAFA and SAMY MAGDY report. Netanyahu has already rejected those demands, however, vowing instead to fight until “absolute victory.” “There is no other solution,” he said. It was always extremely unlikely that Israel would agree to a deal that involves a lengthy cease-fire or a withdrawal as its military expands its operation in the Gaza Strip. Israel’s goal is to root out Hamas, which would remain in power and be able to rebuild its military capabilities if such a deal is struck. “A lot of work” remains to bring Hamas and Israel to agreement, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said during his visit to Israel, as part of a wider Middle East tour to push for a hostage deal and U.S. plans for postwar Gaza. On Tuesday, President JOE BIDEN said the militant group’s demands are “a little over the top” but that negotiations will continue. THE KINGDOM’S TERMS: Saudi Arabia told the U.S. that it won’t open diplomatic relations with Israel unless a Palestinian state, which includes the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital and the Gaza Strip, are recognized, Reuters’ ENAS ALASHRAY and HUMEYRA PAMUK report. In a statement today, Riyadh called on the U.N. Security Council to recognize the 1967 borders, referring to a state that Palestinians have long sought following Israel’s occupation of the territories in a war that year. Last week, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia would be willing to accept a commitment from Israel, rather than a binding agreement, to establish a Palestinian state in an effort to secure a defense pact with Washington before the U.S. presidential election. But it’s unlikely that’ll happen under Netanyahu — a strict opponent of the two-state solution. NO PUPPET MASTER?: Iran doesn’t provide weapons to the Houthi forces in Yemen and doesn’t direct militants or armed groups outside of its own country, Iran’s U.N. Ambassador AMIR SAEID IRAVANI said late Tuesday. Asked by NBC News’ LESTER HOLT whether Tehran is arming the Houthis, who have bombarded commercial ships in the Red Sea since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the ambassador said, “Not at all.” The Houthis “have their own weapons” and aren’t instructed by Iran on what to do with them, he said. Other proxy groups that have attacked U.S. troops and Israel in recent months also make their own decisions without Iran’s direction, Iravani added.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | PUTIN IN THE WORK: Former Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON’s interview with VLADIMIR PUTIN shows that Moscow is making moves to try and influence conservatives in the U.S. ahead of the presidential election, The Washington Post’s ROBYN DIXON and NATALIA ABBAKUMOVA report. “The Kremlin’s decision to allow the interview demonstrated Putin’s interest in building bridges to the disruptive MAGA element of the Republican Party, and seemed to reflect the Kremlin’s hope that DONALD TRUMP will return to the presidency and Republicans will continue to block U.S. military aid to Ukraine.” In recent years, Putin has also publicly aligned himself with conservative causes, criticizing the West’s acceptance of transgender rights and imposing strict bans on pro-LGBTQ+ speech. Read: Tucker Carlson faces media fury over Putin interview by our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA
| | BEIJING’S LURKING: A coalition of U.S. agencies and international partners are warning that Chinese government-linked hackers were in U.S. critical infrastructure for “at least” the last five years, and that infrastructure in allied nations is also vulnerable, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The disclosure — in a report put out today — is the latest effort by the U.S. government to draw attention to the threats from China to critical U.S. networks and underlines the stakes of a potential future conflict with Beijing. The report warned that major Chinese government hacking group Volt Typhoon was observed in the U.S. to be “maintaining access and footholds within some victim IT environments for at least five years,” and that this was likely part of “pre-exploitation reconnaissance” to learn about the networks. Last week, the nation’s top cybersecurity and intelligence officials warned that the U.S. networks are vulnerable to a "cyber invasion" by China — and that Chinese hackers are already well on their way to compromising the nation's critical infrastructure.
| | UKRAINE’S NEW FACTORY: Turkish defense company Baykar started building a large drone factory that will employ around 500 people, the company’s chief executive told Reuters’ PESHA MAGID. The company’s TB2 or TB3 drone models gained notoriety after being used by Ukrainian forces in their war against Russia, taking out armored vehicles and artillery systems. "We need about 12 months to finish construction and then we will move on to internal machinery, equipment and organizational structure," Baykar CEO HALUK BAYRAKTAR told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Defense Show in Riyadh. "The factory in Ukraine is a big one.” MISSING HELO FOUND: A missing Marine Corps helicopter carrying five troops from Nevada to California has been found in a mountainous area outside San Diego, The Associated Press reports. “The Marines were flying a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter from Creech Air Force Base, northwest of Las Vegas, where they had been doing unit-level training and were returning home to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego,” per the AP.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | BORDER BILL FAILS: Senate Republicans today blocked a package that included aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and provisions to beef up border security, a long-coming conclusion to tortuous bipartisan negotiations, our own URSULA PERANO reports. The bill failed to advance 49-50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. The defeat officially ends the unsuccessful talks to shore up border protections that went on for four months. Republicans had initially demanded border policy changes in exchange for Ukraine aid but abandoned that trade-off this week quickly after the border deal was announced, deeming it inadequate. House Republican leadership also said the bill was dead on arrival in that chamber, turning more GOP senators against it. AUSTIN’S HOT SEAT: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN will appear at a House Armed Services hearing this month to face questions over his decision to hide his recent hospitalization from top national security officials, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reported Tuesday evening. ICYMI — Is there life on Mars? Congressional gridlock is getting in the way of an answer. by Matt
| | STOCKHOLM OUT: Sweden is ending its investigation into the mysterious explosions that blew up the undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines after concluding the country's courts do not have jurisdiction over the case, our own NICOLAS CAMUT and GABRIEL GAVIN report. In a statement today, Swedish prosecutor MATS LJUNGQVIST said officials had concluded the probe should be discontinued after a "systematic and thorough" investigation. However, he added that Germany's inquiries are ongoing. Along with Berlin and Stockholm, Copenhagen has also launched an investigation into the two blasts that destroyed three of the four strands of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which connected Russia's Siberian gas fields to Germany through the Baltic Sea, in September 2022. But the explosions remain shrouded in mystery, as investigators have so far been unable to identify a culprit.
| | — JULIANE GALLINA has been named the CIA’s deputy director for digital innovation. Gallina was the vice president of IBM’s federal key accounts. — Britain’s long-serving government communications chief ALEX AIKEN will become a communications adviser for the United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministry, our own JOHN JOHNSTON and EMILIO CASALICCHIO report.
| | — ALUF BENN, Foreign Affairs: Israel’s Self-Destruction — JOHN LECHNER and SERGEY ELEDINOV, Foreign Policy: Is Africa Corps a Rebranded Wagner Group? — TURQUOISE ROOF: Weaponizing Big Data: decoding China’s digital surveillance in Tibet
| | — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 8:30 a.m.: Elevating Cyber Resilience: Staying Ahead of the Curve — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What is Next for Taiwan? — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11:30 a.m.: How the National Security Agency is changing to ensure its workplace and staff are ready for the national security work to come — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 12 p.m.: Peacebuilding in the South Caucasus, focusing on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict — Arab Center, 12:30 p.m.: Arab Public Opinion of the Gaza War and US Policy — R Street Institute, 1 p.m.: AI’s Role in Enhancing Cyber Resilience — RAND Corporation, 3 p.m.: Reforming DoD’s Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution Process for a Competitive Future Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is in our space far longer than we want. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, who could never overstay her welcome. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
