CABINET RESET — The fishbowl seems to think a shuffle is coming in the summer heat of July — the 24th or 25th or 26th, specifically — before a Cabinet retreat in late August.
— Obvious caveat: A seasoned pol reminds Playbook of PAUL WELLS' enduring second rule of Canadian politics: “If everyone in Ottawa knows something, it’s not true.” This is a town where the snake occasionally eats its own tail. — Caveat's caveat: Unless everyone is right. — Communication breakdown: Playbook asked JENI ARMSTRONG, an instructor in political management at Carleton University and former speechwriter for JUSTIN TRUDEAU, what she’s watching as the prime minister’s team considers how it can revamp its agenda, and the people who will sell it to the country, heading into the fall. Armstrong's view: Communication matters. The government is eight years old. The Bank of Canada hiked rates yet again, piling on financial pain for already anxious indebted Canadians. Liberals need to speak as effectively as possible. What do Canadians care about, and why does that matter? Armstrong’s reply: “My best guess, backed up by some polls, is that the three biggest issues for Canadians heading into the next election will be affordability, housing, and the environment (because of destructive weather events more than anything else). “The government needs to have their best communicators on these files. It’s not enough to get stuff done … you need to make sure Canadians feel like you’re on their side, that you get where they’re coming from, and that you have a plan to help. You need ministers who can connect with people and effectively deliver the government’s message — including, as you head into an election, what you’ve done to date. “For that reason, I’d keep my eye on ministers like SEAMUS O'REGAN and MARCI IEN for moves into higher profile roles. No coincidence that both have a background in media, where listening is at least as important as talking.” Ien, a "Canada AM" colleague of O'Regan's in their shared past as broadcasters, was promoted to Cabinet in 2021, a year to the day after winning a by-election in Toronto Centre. She has served as minister of women and gender equality and youth ever since. — Speaking of O'Regan: Tory Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE said he was disappointed by the labor minister's handling of the punishing B.C. ports strike. "Trudeau's minister has been totally incapable of getting the parties to the table," he said at a press conference in B.C., the same day O'Regan gave the dockworkers' union and their employer 24 hours to agree to a mediated agreement. Not that the opposition leader's view will figure heavily into the PM's deliberations. — One idea: The minister has impressed Liberals who've watched him gain his voice in Ottawa — first as natural resources minister, and more recently at labor. It's time he scored a new gig, said longtime political commentator SCOTT REID. “O'Regan has single-handedly turned the labor portfolio into an economic ministry worth watching. But why are they hiding Seamus’ light under a bushel? He’s such a capable communicator. Make him the industry minister immediately.” — If this, then that: If O'Regan replaced FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE as industry minister, that would mean losing a dealmaker at the top of his game. Any conceivable move would unseat another high-profile front-bencher, who could replace another high-profile front-bencher, and on and on. On the shuffle whiteboard, things get complicated quickly. — Other risers: Two names are consistently high on due-for-a-promotion lists. → SEAN FRASER is almost universally seen as a high-achiever, even by Conservatives. Here's what SEAN MURPHY, an Earnscliffe Strategies senior consultant and longtime Tory whip staffer, sees in the Nova Scotian MP. “In recent months, he’s made noticeable improvements in his ability to speak in French without pre-written notes. A sure sign of his ambition but also his ability,” says Murphy. “I’ll stop short of critiquing his performance on the immigration file, except to say that he’s managed to stay off the front page while other Cabinet colleagues appear to be in constant crisis mode. In other words: one gets the sense that he reads his emails.” → KARINA GOULD cracks Armstrong's list of women in Cabinet who’ve been handed tough assignments, alongside CHRYSTIA FREELAND's NAFTA renegotiation and ANITA ANAND's vaccine procurement. Gould played a key role in fed-prov childcare deals and wrestled down an alarming passport application backlog. “You give your best performers your biggest challenges,” says Armstrong. “It's notable that many of the biggest challenges of the last seven years have gone to women.” — Baggage check: The list of ministers who've heard demands for their resignation or at least endured weeks of brutal press coverage has grown long since the 2021 election: BILL BLAIR for allegations of political interference in the wake of the Nova Scotia mass shooting, MARCO MENDICINO for pushing a fraught gun control bill and confusion about Paul Bernardo's prison transfer, OMAR ALGHABRA for summertime chaos at major airports, MARY NG for failing to recuse herself from conversations about a media training contract awarded to a friend, and AHMED HUSSEN for underdelivering new housing (and also handing out fishy comms contracts). JOYCE MURRAY has angered stakeholders in the fish farming industry. None of which guarantees any of those ministers will be shuffled around or out, only that they will feature heavily in gossipy Ottawa chatter until the big day finally arrives. What are you hearing about the coming shuffling of Cabinet? Are you Justin Trudeau and will you please tell us your plans? We're waiting at ottawaplaybook@politico.com. | 
