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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Oleksandr Syrskyi is deeply unpopular with Ukraine’s rank-and-file. | Roman Chop/AP | With help from Connor O’Brien, Joe Gould, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The greatest military shakeup in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion just happened: President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY replaced top commander Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY with Gen. OLEKSANDR SYRSKYI, the former ground forces chief. In a Telegram statement, Zelenskyy thanked Zaluzhny for defending Ukraine over the last two years and asked him to remain on the team. Two Ukrainian officials told NatSec Daily that Zaluzhny’s next move is unclear. He has many offers on the table and has to choose if he would like to further serve in the administration. There’s speculation that Zaluzhny, should he leave government, could mount a political challenge to the current president. Media reports indicate Zaluzhny could also focus on his health and turn to a teaching career. The question now is what Syrskyi, 58, brings to the war. Most notably he helped defend Kyiv against Russia’s onslaught and orchestrated a successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv. But Syrskyi’s also known for leading forces into a meat grinder in Bakhmut, sending wave after wave of troops to face opposition fire. In the end, Kremlin-backed Wagner Group mercenaries captured the city. For that and other reasons, Syrskyi is deeply unpopular with Ukraine’s rank-and-file. “Very bad decision,” a Ukrainian military captain told NatSec Daily. The captain, like others, was granted anonymity to avoid retaliation or to provide their unvarnished opinion. Another person knowledgeable of Syrskyi’s operations echoed that view. His appointment is unlikely to have a positive effect for Ukraine, as Syrskyi is seen by those on the frontlines as a stern Soviet-style general who callously puts his men in danger. This person added that Ukrainian troops have given Syrskyi a gruesome nickname: “Butcher.” The captain confirmed that the nickname has stuck, as has “General200” — which stands for 200 dead on the battlefield. The negative reviews keep pouring in: “General Syrski's leadership is bankrupt, his presence or orders coming from his name are demoralizing, and he undermines trust in the command in general,” a Ukrainian military officer posted on X. “His relentless pursuit of tactical gains constantly depletes our valuable human resources, resulting in tactical advances such as capturing tree lines or small villages, with no operational goals in mind.” A Ukrainian soldier also tweeted a message in a group chat of veterans of the Bakhmut fight: "We're all fucked." Ukraine’s general staff did not return a request for comment on the criticisms. Zelenskyy, of course, voiced confidence in Syrskyi, calling him Ukraine’s “most experienced commander.” It may not be the best time to make any sort of switch. The passage of roughly $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine isn’t guaranteed to pass through Congress. The shuffle atop the Ukrainian military could harden skepticism some Republicans and Democrats share of America’s support for the war effort. It also doesn’t help that there’s also a striking Washington Post report on how Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of infantry just as Russia steps up its attacks. The move, then, “comes at a difficult time for Ukraine, particularly as ammunition and manpower shortages on the frontlines are increasingly acute and a new strategy has not yet been articulated,” said DARA MASSICOT, an expert on the war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Zaluzhny’s successor is inheriting many challenges.” Read: Who is Oleksandr Syrskyi, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces? by The Economist (June 2023)
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security, connecting assets across domains with advanced capabilities and networking to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn More. | | | | | HOPE FOR HOSTAGE DEAL: After Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s strong rejection of Hamas’ hostage deal proposal, Israeli officials signaled that the government is still open to negotiating. “There is agreement among members of the governing coalition, and particularly among individual members of the government, that we do have to get the hostages back and to make a deal,” MIKI ZOHAR, an Israeli government minister, said in a radio interview on this morning, per The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY and ADAM RASGON. A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo today for more talks about ending the war, but Zohar said that’s not going to happen: “Stopping the war, for example, they won’t agree to,” he said, referring to Israeli officials. There’s certainly no sign that Israel is ramping down its military operation in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu said the military would soon enter Rafah, a city near the southern border where thousands of displaced Palestinians are sheltering, despite warnings that such a move could cause many civilian deaths. The city is already vulnerable: Israeli airstrikes In Rafah overnight killed 13 people, including two women and five children, The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN, WAFAA SHURAFA and KAREEM CHEHAYEB report. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said Thursday the U.S. has seen no specific plan indicating that an advance on Rafah is “imminent.” As for the United States’ role standing by Israel as it continues to push into Gaza, a poll published today by the Arab Center research institute found that 76 percent of people in Arab countries have developed a more negative view of the United States since the conflict began. GET OUT: American airstrikes in Iraq are pushing the country’s government to end the mission of the U.S.-led coalition battling ISIS there, an Iraqi official said. The coalition "has become a factor for instability and threatens to entangle Iraq in the cycle of conflict,” military spokesperson YAHYA RASOOL said in a statement today, per Reuters’ NAYERA ABDALLAH and TIMOUR AZHARI. His comment came less than a day after U.S. forces carried out a drone strike in Iraq that killed a commander from Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed armed group that the Pentagon has accused of attacking U.S. troops in the region. FALSE CLAIMS: Russia is pushing false claims that the Pentagon is conducting biological tests on unwitting people in Africa, The Wall Street Journal reports, part of an effort to undermine U.S. influence on the continent. “At the heart of the Russian campaign is ‘African Initiative,’ an online news service set up late last year that has used social media to promote criticism of Western public-health efforts in Africa and convened a conference in which participants disparaged Western pharmaceutical companies,” per the WSJ. “Russian intelligence services are providing material support and guidance to the African Initiative,” said JAMES RUBIN, who oversees the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which seeks to expose covert disinformation efforts abroad. “They are casting doubt on medical work that’s being done by legitimate medical organizations and deterring Africans from trusting medical efforts that could save lives.” WARNING SIGNS: Intelligence officials had warned for months of a rising risk that Iranian-made weapons would penetrate U.S. defenses in the Middle East and kill American forces — long before last week’s deadly drone strike against a U.S. outpost in Jordan, our own LARA SELIGMAN and ERIN BANCO reported late Wednesday. Officials in the intel agencies and at the Pentagon issued those warnings both internally and in briefings on Capitol Hill starting in late October, our colleagues wrote. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | NO CHARGES: JOE BIDEN "willfully" disclosed and maintained highly classified materials when out of office, per a new Justice Department report, but he warrants no criminal charges.“ Our investigation uncovered evidence that President Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen,” wrote special counsel ROBERT HUR. This case was different from former President DONALD TRUMP's, who kept records at his resort in Mar-a-Lago and then obstructed efforts by the government to get them back. By contrast, Biden's lawyers contacted the National Archives about the materials when they found them in Biden's possession. Still, Biden's documents, many of them having do with the Obama administration's decision to send more troops into Afghanistan, were of "great significance to him" and the former vice president "appears to have personally used and accessed" them. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court heard a call about whether states could invoke the 14th amendment to remove former President DONALD TRUMP from the ballot. The justices sounded skeptical of the legal reasoning, per their questions in today’s oral argument.
| | NOTHING TO SEE HERE: TikTok will no longer display how many times a video with a specific hashtag has been viewed, The Washington Post’s DREW HARWELL reports, a move that will complicate how researchers track viewership for pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian content. Critics argued the feature — which in many cases showed much higher viewership for pro-Palestinian posts — meant that the social media platform was showing there was more support for the Palestinian than Israeli cause. A TikTok spokesperson told Harwell the change was made last month, though the move wasn’t publicly announced. TikTok’s decision already has its detractors. It’s “a step back for transparency,” said the Center for Countering Digital Hate, that “makes it harder to understand the scale of potential harms.” The social media giant has already faced questions about its transparency practices, including from members of Congress during a Senate Judiciary hearing last week with TikTok chief SHOU ZI CHEW.
| | REPLICATOR RAMP UP: The Pentagon is exploring whether it should request fast-track production authority to quickly build thousands of low-cost drones to counter China’s military buildup, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pros!). Lawmakers said in December they want more information before they approve funding. Similarly, industry executives have left meetings on the Replicator initiative with unanswered questions about how the effort will move forward. To get there, industry has suggested invoking the Defense Production Act to quickly get subcomponents for these systems, Defense Innovation Unit Deputy Director ADITI KUMAR said in an interview. “That will be a conversation we’ll have with the [program executive officers] and [program managers] on specific systems as we receive necessary approvals from Congress and begin contracting for these systems,” Kumar said. DON’T GET TOO EXCITED: Ukraine should not expect much progress on its membership bid at the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, U.K. Ambassador to NATO DAVID QUARREY told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast. Members of the military alliance will gather in the U.S. capital from July 9-11. While the question of Ukraine's membership in NATO will likely be discussed, Quarrey said Kyiv should temper its expectations. “I don't expect a big leap forward on that mainly because of the likely situation on the ground,” the ambassador said. At the same time, Quarrey said, the U.K. is “absolutely convinced that Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO … It's a question of when, not if, and our job here is to continue supporting Ukraine as it comes ever closer to the alliance.” RIP: Five Marines who were aboard a helicopter that crashed in the mountains outside of San Diego during a storm were confirmed dead, U.S. military officials announced today. The CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter went off course Tuesday night as it was returning to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego following a training at Creech Air Force Base near Las Vegas. Efforts to recover the Marines’ remains and an investigation into the crash are underway, the officials said.
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | | | | SUPPLEMENTAL PASSES HURDLE: A $95 billion national security supplemental aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan finally cleared its first hurdle in the Senate on Thursday after Republicans initially blocked it a day earlier, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. The vote was 67 to 32 to advance the bill after Democrats dropped a border security deal from the bill, which GOP senators opposed. Senate leaders must still agree on a path forward before the measure can pass, including whether to hold votes on amendments. FOUR-WARD: Four of President Joe Biden’s Pentagon nominees cleared the Senate Armed Services Committee in a voice vote on Thursday, teeing them up for consideration by the full Senate. They are CARA ABERCROMBIE, the pick for assistant secretary for acquisition; APRILLE ERICSSON, the pick for assistant secretary for science and technology; RONALD KEOHANE, the pick for assistant secretary for manpower and reserve affairs, and DOUGLAS SCHMIDT, the pick for director of operational test and evaluation. HOUSE TACKLES AZERBAIJAN AID: A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced a bill in the House on Wednesday that would end the waiver provisions in Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act that allow the U.S. to provide military aid to Azerbaijan, our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL writes in. The bill, a companion to a Senate bill that passed unanimously last year, follows Azerbaijani leader ILHAM ALIYEV's unsurprising re-election as the country's president and comes as Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace treaty that would resolve their decades-long territorial disputes. Read: Senate GOP prepares to get behind borderless foreign aid bill by our own URSULA PERANO and BURGESS EVERETT
| | BOLSONARO GROUNDED: Former Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO has to surrender his passport to authorities as part of a probe into an alleged criminal organization that attempted to overturn the results of the country’s election in 2022, Bloomberg News’ ANDREW ROSATI and SIMONE IGLESIAS report. FUN WHILE IT LASTED: In an update that will surprise no one, BORIS NADEZHDIN, the only presidential hopeful critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been removed from the Russian presidential ballot, our own SERGEY GORYASHKO and EVA HARTOG report. Russian election officials today disqualified Nadezhdin due to what it said were paperwork discrepancies in the 105,000 endorsement signatures he submitted. “You are not refusing me, but tens of millions of people who are hoping for change,” Nadezhin commented on the refusal on his Telegram channel. “Tens of millions of people here were going to vote for me. I am in second place after Putin.” SHAME ON YOU: Polish President DONALD TUSK is unhappy that Senate Republicans blocked funding for Ukraine and other global hotspots. “Dear Republican Senators of America. RONALD REAGAN, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you,” he posted to X today. Read: Biden mixes up Angela Merkel and Helmut Kohl by our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA By the way: If you plan to watch TUCKER CARLSON’s interview with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, might we suggest you have these “Bingo” cards handy.
| | | |   | | | | | — JOSH PAUL is now a non-resident fellow at Democracy for the Arab World Now. He previously was a director at the State Department, from which he publicly resigned in protest over the U.S. handling of the Israel-Hamas war — CHRIS INGLIS has been elected to AIG’s board of directors. The former national cyber director will start his term on March 1. — JEREMY BERNTON is now chief of staff for the Special Representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery at the State Department. He most recently was White House liaison at State. — Former Ethiopian intelligence service chief TEMESGEN TIRUNEH was approved as deputy prime minister. He replaced DEMEKE MEKONNEN, who previously served in the role for 11 years.
| | — VERA BERGENGRUEN, Time: How tech giants turned Ukraine into an AI war lab — PAULO PINHEIRO, HANNY MEGALLY and LYNN WELCHMAN, The New York Times: Under Gaza’s shadow, Syria faces a new welter of conflict — STACIE PETTYJOHN, Center for a New American Security: Evolution not revolution: drone warfare in Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine
| | — The Atlantic Council, 3:30 p.m.: Air Force acquisition priorities 2024 Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who butchers our copy. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we always want as our leader.
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