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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Critics have long said President Joe Biden and his team talk a big game about humanitarian concerns but have done little to rein in Israel’s military campaign. | Nathan Howard/Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Four months into Israel’s retaliation against Hamas, President JOE BIDEN finally told us how he really feels. “I’m of the view, as you know, that the conduct of the response in the Gaza Strip has been over the top,” Biden said Thursday night from the White House’s Diplomatic Room. Biden’s remarks were his most critical of Israel since the war began, and a sign his patience with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and his far-right government is wearing thin. The main question now is what, if anything, Biden will do about it. Critics have long said Biden and his team talk a big game about humanitarian concerns but have done little to rein in Israel’s military campaign, which followed Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that killed 1,200 people. JOSH PAUL, a former State Department official who resigned over Biden’s Israel's policy, said the administration has many levers to pull. One is to condition future military assistance to Israel’s conduct in the war, mainly so its operations harm fewer civilians. (Hamas-linked ministries put the number of Palestinians killed at nearly 28,000.) Another is to end its objections to South Africa’s case at the World Court that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The U.S. could also withhold its veto on any anti-Israel measures at the United Nations, Paul continued. Others agreed with those recommendations and added that the U.S. could impose financial sanctions on Israelis, similar to the ones placed on violent settlers in the West Bank. MATT DUSS, a former adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) now at the Center for International Policy, said Biden should “make clear that there will be consequences, and if Netanyahu continues to ignore him, impose them.” It’s unclear if Biden will do that, but the frustration within the Biden administration is clearer now than ever. During another swing in the Middle East, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said Hamas’ attack on Israel “cannot be a license to dehumanize others.” Deputy national security adviser JON FINER and USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER traveled to Michigan Thursday to meet with Arab-American leaders. Now there’s a new White House memo encouraging stricter observation of whether U.S.-made weapons are used by any nation to violate human rights (more on that below). “If this is real, if this does signal a pivot of some kind, the test case is going to play out in real time right now,” said JEREMY KONYNDYK, a former USAID official who now leads Refugees International, noting that an offensive in the southern Gazan city of Rafah seems imminent. “Will Netanyahu ignore the very clear signals that the administration is sending about guardrails on Rafah, the way he ignored similar messages about the offensive to the south?” It sounds like Bibi is ignoring them. Israel is already bombing targets in Rafah, crowded with more than half of the enclave’s 2.3 million population. And three U.S. citizens have been detained by the Israel Defense Forces in the West Bank and Gaza Strip this week. Netanyahu said today he ordered the military to evacuate the city and its surroundings ahead of a “massive operation,” though it’s unclear where so many people can go. A larger military campaign in Rafah would go against the Biden administration’s express wishes. “Military operations right now would be a disaster for those people, and it’s not something that we would support,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters on Thursday afternoon. Now’s the time for actions to speak louder than words, Konyndyk said. “If they don't do anything, then it's kind of meaningless.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn More. | | | | | NEW WAY FORWARD: Ukraine’s new military chief Col. Gen. OLEKSANDR SYRSKYI said his immediate goals in the position are to improve troop rotation on the frontlines and use new technologies to battle Russia, The Associated Press’ SAMYA KULLAB and ALEX BABENKO report. “New tasks are on the agenda,” he wrote on Telegram, providing little detail about the plans. But his comments align with President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s insistence that Ukraine needs a “renewal” on the battlefield, following the ouster of former military chief Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY. Syrskyi has a tough job ahead. As The Financial Times reports, Ukrainian forces have a critical shortage of Western ammunition, leading to “rationing stockpiles and firing only about a third of the number of rounds they need each day to maintain their position.” “It is a desperate situation on the front lines for the Ukrainians, far worse than they are letting on,” a senior NATO diplomat told HENRY FOY, FELICIA SCHWARTZ and CHRISTOPHER MILLER. Meanwhile, senior Russian security official DMITRY MEDVEDEV called Syrskyi a “traitor” — since he is a former Soviet officer — and Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said his appointment won't change the course of the war, Reuters’ FELIX LIGHT reports. Note to readers: After writing about Syrskyi’s nicknames on Thursday, several of you pointed out that General200 could stand for General Death, because “200” in military jargon means fatalities. We appreciate the catch. Our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA provides some new details today about Syrskyi’s appointment and the challenges he faces. MADURO’S A MEAN GUYANA: Venezuela deployed light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers to its border with Guayana, staying true to its threat to annex part of the country to access its oil, according to satellite images made public today. It’s a significant escalation in Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO’s efforts to gain leverage over energy reserves that were discovered in Guyana recently. News of the military move also comes shortly after Maduro and Guyanese President IRFAAN ALI signed an agreement denouncing the use of force or escalating tensions over the oil-rich region. The dispute could lead to a growing headache for the Biden administration: “The United States, Brazil, and international community can play a vital role in raising awareness about Maduro’s duplicitous actions and ensure his efforts to coerce Guyana find no purchase,” experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies write in a report on the satellite images. STRIKES IN YEMEN: American forces conducted seven airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen, targeting four Houthi unmanned surface vessels and seven mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, U.S. Central Command said late Thursday. “They presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region,” Central Command wrote in a statement, repeating the rationale it has previously used when attacking the group. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring MK YULI YOEL EDELSTEIN, chair of the Israeli Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. After we interviewed him Wednesday, the parliamentarian told us his favorite drink was coffee “because there's very little time to sleep.” Long espresso is the caffeine injection of choice, Edelstein told us, noting he had to bring a machine into his office because that’s where he mainly finds himself these days. “I was in need of constant supply,” he admitted. Cheers, sir! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | CONFUSED LEADERS CONFUSE LEADERS: How voters feel about the connection between age and mental sharpness will affect the reelection prospects for Biden and former President DONALD TRUMP — and mixing up world leaders is probably counterproductive. During a Thursday news conference arranged to display Biden’s mental acuity, the president said that ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISSI was the president of Mexico. He is, alas, the president of Egypt. Biden also twice in week mixed up the current leaders of France and Germany with their deceased predecessors. All that, added to a Justice Department report saying Biden’s memory sometimes fails him, led conservative commentators to call for Biden to step aside. But Trump has had this problem, too. In October, Trump praised VIKTOR ORBÁN as a great “leader of Turkey,” even though Orbán is the prime minister of Hungary. More recently, Trump confused his campaign rival NIKKI HALEY for former Speaker NANCY PELOSI, repeating the error over and over again.
| | | CHIP PUSH: The Biden administration announced today that it expects to invest more than $5 billion in a semiconductor hub, including chip-related research, development and staffing, our own CHRISTINE MUI reports (for Pros!). The National Semiconductor Technology Center will help design, prototype and pilot the latest semiconductor technologies, the White House said in a statement. The U.S. makes fewer than 10 percent of the world’s semiconductors, which are critical for building advanced weapons and artificial intelligence models. The center is being funded through the CHIPS and Science Act, which was passed in 2022 and aims to reinvigorate the U.S. chip sector with billions of dollars in government support. “This is an inflection point in the industry — not just because we’re dangerously dependent on one country for so many of our chips, but because AI is going to lead to an explosion of demand for chips,” Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO said during the center’s formal launch at the White House, referring to Taiwan. “We want to stay in the lead.”
| | | |   | | | | | NEW ARMS TRANSFER DIRECTIVE: Democratic senators who have been critical of the White House’s military support for Israel are applauding the Biden administration’s new guardrails on U.S. military assistance to foreign governments, Matt reports (for Pros!). The White House on Thursday night released a memorandum to strengthen mandates that countries receiving U.S.-made weapons use them in accordance with international law. The memo, not executive order, adopts elements of a measure pushed by Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and his colleagues. The main change is that the U.S. now requires the State Department “to obtain certain credible and reliable written assurances from foreign governments” that they won’t abuse human rights with American-provided weapons. There are also some robust reporting and monitoring requirements included in the memo, some allowing for more congressional oversight. “This is a very important and dramatic new policy that will be applied worldwide going forward,” Van Hollen told reporters Thursday evening. Ask the Biden administration, though, and they don’t think the memo actually changes much. “These aren’t new standards. We are not imposing new standards for military aid that countries must adhere to,” said a senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive development. “Instead, we are spelling out publicly the existing standards set by international law, including the law of armed conflict.” So, we asked, the U.S. at this point doesn’t assess any nation is violating human rights with U.S.-made weapons? “That’s right,” the official said. “We’re not issuing this because we think any country or countries are violating these standards. If we did, you’d have heard it about long ago — and seen the consequences.” Josh Paul, the former State official who worked on arms transfers, said the directive “creates some useful hooks to hold the administration accountable in a few months — but does nothing for the Palestinians who are suffering today. The laws that this policy refers to are already on the books and are not being enforced.” Paul also noted the memo only applied to grant military assistance, not all arms transfers. “So it wouldn't apply to much of what Israel is buying now, or anything involving, say, Saudi Arabia,” he added. (Paul also wrote some very technical thoughts about the memo in this Google doc.) MARINES IDENTIFIED: The five Marines killed in a helicopter crash in the mountains outside San Diego last week were identified today as:
- Lance Cpl. Donovan Davis, 21, of Olathe, Kansas.
- Sgt. Alec Langen, 23, of Chandler, Arizona.
- Capt. Benjamin Moulton, 27, of Emmett, Idaho.
- Capt. Jack Casey, 26, of Dover, New Hampshire.
- Capt. Miguel Nava, 28, of Traverse City, Michigan.
| | | | BACK WHERE IT BEGAN: Three months ago, most Senate Republicans were resolute: No way in heck were they sending money to Ukraine without simultaneously securing the border. Yet on Thursday, 17 of them advanced a bill that would do just that. As our own BURGESS EVERETT and URSULA PERANO note, it’s a head-snapping reversal that has many Republicans reconsidering the negotiating tactics they took just a few months ago. “We’d have been smarter to do it four to five months ago. But we Republicans insisted on a border bill to be part of the deal. We could have saved a lot of time if President Trump had just told Fox and others he didn’t want the bill,” said Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah). “It’s just unfortunate that aid that’s so desperately needed in Ukraine and Israel has been held up while we go through our politics.” “The Republicans did a very effective job of reminding people around the country we have a crisis at the border. So we did well with the messaging — until ..." said Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), pointedly trailing off. "And right now we’ve got nothing but message." Read: Republicans ‘shameful’ for blocking Ukraine aid, says Australia’s TONY ABBOTT by our own STEFAN BOSCIA
| | PUTIN’S TIMELINE: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said Moscow’s war with Kyiv will be “over in a few weeks” if the U.S. stops sending assistance to the country. When asked by former Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON on Thursday night about the possibility of peace in Ukraine, Putin said: “If you really want to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons. … It will be over within a few weeks. That’s it.” European and Ukrainian officials have said that if Washington stops sending assistance, it’ll struggle to fend off invading troops and could likely lose the war. Congressional gridlock has prevented assistance from flowing to Kyiv for a few months, but it’s very unlikely the U.S. will entirely abandon the country. During the interview, Putin also said he believes an agreement can be reached to release imprisoned Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, suggesting that he’d be open to a prisoner swap for VADIM KRASIKOV, who was convicted of the murder of a Chechen dissident in Berlin in 2019 and is serving a life sentence in Germany. Read: Nine takeaways from Tucker Carlson’s Putin interview by our own EVA HARTOG and SERGEY GORYASHKO
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | | | | | — The Georgian parliament approved a reshuffled government led by IRAKLI KOBAKHIDZE, former chair of the ruling Georgian Dream party and a critic of Western governments. Kobakhidze replaces IRAKLI GARIBASHVILI, who unexpectedly announced his resignation as prime minister in late January.
| | — ANDREA PRADA BIANCHI, Foreign Policy: A temperature check on NATO’s ‘Arctic Sparta’ — MARC CHAMPION, Bloomberg: Putin showed Carlson why he really invaded Ukraine — TOBY MATTHIESEN, Foreign Affairs: How Gaza reunited the Middle East
| | — The Hudson Institute, noon: Changing Russia's calculus and laying the groundwork for Ukrainian victory — The Atlantic Council, noon: One year on: assessing the Feb. 6 earthquake response in Syria — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: The Pentagon, climate change and war: charting the rise and fall of U.S. military emissions — The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Countering China and Russia in Latin America and the Caribbean — The Brookings Institution, 2:30 p.m.: Is the U.S.-China relationship America's most consequential bilateral relationship? Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who imposes consequences on us even though we’re perfect. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who metes out justice blindly and fairly.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
